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When the Assad regime deployed sarin gas against civilians in Khan Shaykhun last April, President Trump took only sixty hours to order missile strikes on a Syrian airfield. Since then, though, the U.S. has largely acquiesced to Assad's routine use of both conventional and chlorine-gas weapons on civilians. That cumulative carnage is far greater than this weekend’s chemical attack in Douma.

Yes, but:  A number of factors — including horrific images of victims, which reportedly spurred Trump's decision last April, Russia's warning against U.S. intervention and, ironically, Trump’s recent call to withdraw — may have bolstered rather than diminished the odds of a forceful response. Trump's red-line tweets about Assad paying a big price and his mentioning Putin by name seem to presage military retaliation. 

Before making a decision, the Trump administration is working to create an evidentiary standard based on the kinds of chemicals used and their source. In the meantime, the UN Security Council convened on Monday, though Russia holds veto power over its resolutions.

As the region responds to Israel's Sunday night strikes near Homs, which reportedly killed four Iranians, the likelihood and scope of U.S. action in Douma remain of greatest interest. That the city is only 12 miles from Damascus adds a further level of complexity to the U.S. calculus.

The big picture: Whatever the response, the question of U.S. involvement in Syria — beyond hammering the remnants of ISIS and supporting Syrian Kurds — will remain unresolved. As talk of withdrawal temporarily abates, it's a fair assumption that the U.S. isn't backing down or out.

Aaron David Miller is vice president for new initiatives and director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center.

As Trump weighs response to chemical attacks, U.S. future in Syria still unclear

Aside from combating ISIS and supporting Kurds, the U.S. role in Syria remains unresolved.

A medical worker at Damascus Countryside Specialised Hospital holds a placard condemning a suspected chemical weapons attack on the Syrian town in April 2017

A medical worker in Damascus condemning the chemical weapons attack in Khan Shaykhun on April 6, 2017, that prompted President Trump to order a military strike. Photo: Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP via Getty Images

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When the Assad regime deployed sarin gas against civilians in Khan Shaykhun last April, President Trump took only sixty hours to order missile strikes on a Syrian airfield. Since then, though, the U.S. has largely acquiesced to Assad&#x27;s routine use of both conventional and chlorine-gas weapons on civilians. That <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="cumulative carnage" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/eastern-ghouta-attacks-ec8b259d-f971-4123-9134-fcd37e1f2f3b.html" data-vars-content-id="060fa774-b6d0-4c72-9b3c-b66296e2abe2" data-vars-headline="As Trump weighs response to chemical attacks, U.S. future in Syria still unclear" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/eastern-ghouta-attacks-ec8b259d-f971-4123-9134-fcd37e1f2f3b.html" target="_self">cumulative carnage</a> is far greater than this weekend’s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="chemical attack " data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/alleged-chemical-attack-syria-eastern-ghouta-3bd90ff7-7aaa-47e1-bf2d-1cd3e854db6a.html" data-vars-content-id="060fa774-b6d0-4c72-9b3c-b66296e2abe2" data-vars-headline="As Trump weighs response to chemical attacks, U.S. future in Syria still unclear" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/alleged-chemical-attack-syria-eastern-ghouta-3bd90ff7-7aaa-47e1-bf2d-1cd3e854db6a.html" target="_self">chemical attack </a>in Douma.Yes, but: A number of factors — including horrific images of victims, which reportedly spurred Trump&#x27;s decision last April, Russia&#x27;s warning against U.S. intervention and, ironically, Trump’s recent call to withdraw — may have bolstered rather than diminished the odds of a forceful response. Trump&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="red-line tweets " data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982969547283161090" data-vars-content-id="060fa774-b6d0-4c72-9b3c-b66296e2abe2" data-vars-headline="As Trump weighs response to chemical attacks, U.S. future in Syria still unclear" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982969547283161090" target="_blank">red-line tweets </a>about <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Assad paying a big price" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982966315467116544" data-vars-content-id="060fa774-b6d0-4c72-9b3c-b66296e2abe2" data-vars-headline="As Trump weighs response to chemical attacks, U.S. future in Syria still unclear" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982966315467116544" target="_blank">Assad paying a big price</a> and his mentioning Putin by name seem to presage military retaliation.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Anyone viewing this week's split-screen images of happy Israelis and Americans celebrating the U.S. embassy opening in Jerusalem alongside the confrontation and killing at the Israeli-Gaza border fence could be forgiven for writing off the prospects for peace.

Where it stands: Whether the two-state solution is merely dead or fully dead and buried, a number of factors have combined to stall its progress and make further deterioration much more likely. Yet in a Friday morning conversation I moderated at the Wilson Center with PLO chief negotiator Saeb Erekat and former Israeli negotiator Gilad Sher, a mutual conviction that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be resolved still emerged. 

Netanyahu and Abbas: A deal will require committed leaders who are masters of their politics, not prisoners of their ideologies and constituencies. Abbas is too weak, unpopular and attached to inflexible negotiating positions, while Netanyahu has no intention of becoming the prime minister who divides Jerusalem and returns Israel to anything close to its June 1967 borders. Given the Hamas-Fatah split, the PLO cannot even claim that it controls all the guns of Palestine, let alone that it speaks for two million Gazans. Indeed, Hamas' orchestration of the March of Return and demonstrations in Gaza has further revealed that it’s on the front lines and Abbas is on the sidelines.

Trump administration: Opening an embassy in Jerusalem — tacit validation that Israel controls the city's east and west alike — has undermined the administration’s ability to be an effective, let alone honest, broker. If its pro-Israeli approach to Jerusalem and other issues isn’t balanced out in the administration's larger plan, it will fail, further diminishing U.S. credibility.

Arab states: Exhausted and fatigued by the Palestinian issue, key Arab states — most notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE — are more concerned by the threats from Iran and Sunnis jihadis and less inclined to fight for the Palestinian issue, much less press the U.S. for action. In fact, these states are moving closer to the Israelis, which has shifted pressure from the Palestinian issue. 

The bottom line: For now, the Israeli-Palestinian arena will continue to see both confrontation and accommodation. Israelis, Palestinians and any would-be mediators are likely to remain caught between a two-state solution still too important to abandon and one that’s now just too hard to negotiate and implement.

Aaron David Miller is vice president for new initiatives and director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center and a former Middle East analyst and negotiator at the State Department.

Even after flare-ups, hope lingers for Israeli-Palestinian resolution

But for now, expect both accommodation and further confrontation.

medical workers approach Israeli-Gaza border fence with arms up

Medical workers approach the Israel-Gaza border fence on May 15, 2018. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Israel

Anyone viewing this week&#x27;s split-screen images of happy Israelis and Americans celebrating the U.S. embassy opening in Jerusalem alongside the confrontation and killing at the Israeli-Gaza border fence could be forgiven for writing off the prospects for peace.Where it stands: Whether the two-state solution is merely dead or fully dead and buried, a number of factors have combined to stall its progress and make further deterioration much more likely. Yet in a Friday morning <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="conversation" data-vars-click-url="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/todays-bleak-prospects-for-israeli-palestinian-peace-conversation-saeb-erekat-and-gilead-sher" data-vars-content-id="28857725-d62b-47a1-82cf-ed664eb42ea7" data-vars-headline="Even after flare-ups, hope lingers for Israeli-Palestinian resolution" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/todays-bleak-prospects-for-israeli-palestinian-peace-conversation-saeb-erekat-and-gilead-sher" target="_blank">conversation</a> I moderated at the Wilson Center with PLO chief negotiator Saeb Erekat and former Israeli negotiator Gilad Sher, a mutual conviction that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be resolved still emerged.

Palestinian protests continued for the third consecutive Friday along the Israel–Gaza border, resulting in another 163 Palestinians injured. 

The demonstrations began as a grass-roots movement around the March of the Return. But Hamas, seeking to distract from its own mismanagement, has since assumed a key organizational role, taking advantage of Palestinian suffering and Israeli militarism to renew attention on the conflict. For its part, Israel is determined to prevent massive breaches of the border fence, and its use of live fire has left 33 Palestinian dead and over 1,300 injured since the campaign began. 

The bottom line: This flare-up has become the bloodiest since the 2014 war. With no diplomatic recourse in sight, it's likely to get even worse.

The campaign has been orchestrated to coincide with a number of meaningful anniversaries, including Israel Independence Day, Nakba day and the opening of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem in May. As protests continue, Palestinian funerals will generate new waves of justified anger, feeding Hamas' campaign for popular mobilization — a more effective tactic than their use of high-trajectory weapons or tunneling. 

Israel has threatened strikes against Hamas positions in Gaza if the demonstrations continue. Confrontations have not yet spread in any serious way to the West Bank or Jerusalem — which would certainly presage a more serious crisis — but the possibility remains.

The big picture: The chances of resolving the political issues underlying the conflict are slim to none. Most likely Israelis and Palestinians will continue to operate in a space between on-and-off confrontation and largely futile efforts to promote a two-state solution, which remains at once too important to abandon and too difficult to implement.

Gaza protests continue with no end in sight

The recent conflict in Gaza has become the bloodiest since the 2014 war.

People take part in a protest against the killing of a fellow journalist Palestinian Yasser Murtaja 

People protest the killing of Palestinian journalist Yaser Murtaja, on April 11, 2018, in Istanbul. Photo: Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images

Palestine

Palestinian protests continued for the third consecutive Friday along the Israel–Gaza border, resulting in another <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="163 Palestinians injured" data-vars-click-url="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/gaza-protests-dozens-of-palestinians-wounded-by-israeli-fire-reports-say-1.5994845" data-vars-content-id="353a2b2b-f379-41e6-a596-5773f03392ed" data-vars-headline="Gaza protests continue with no end in sight" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/gaza-protests-dozens-of-palestinians-wounded-by-israeli-fire-reports-say-1.5994845" target="_blank">163 Palestinians injured</a>. The demonstrations began as a grass-roots movement around the March of the Return. But Hamas, seeking to distract from its own mismanagement, has since assumed a key organizational role, taking advantage of Palestinian suffering and Israeli militarism to renew attention on the conflict. For its part, Israel is determined to prevent massive breaches of the border fence, and its use of live fire has left <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="33 Palestinian dead" data-vars-click-url="https://www.afp.com/en/news/826/israeli-troops-kill-palestinian-gaza-border-ministry-doc-13z0a17" data-vars-content-id="353a2b2b-f379-41e6-a596-5773f03392ed" data-vars-headline="Gaza protests continue with no end in sight" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.afp.com/en/news/826/israeli-troops-kill-palestinian-gaza-border-ministry-doc-13z0a17" target="_blank">33 Palestinian dead</a> and over 1,300 injured since the campaign began. The bottom line: This flare-up has become the bloodiest since the 2014 war. With no diplomatic recourse in sight, it&#x27;s likely to get even worse.

A U.S. official announced yesterday that the U.S. Consulate General in Jerusalem, which serves Palestinians, will be absorbed into the new U.S. Embassy to Israel in March.

Why it matters: The move is of a piece with the administration's attempts to recast the Palestinian refugee issue and its apparently tenuous commitment to a two-state solution. The merger is yet another demonstration of the Trump peace team's determination to change U.S. policy toward core elements of the Israeli-Palestinian issue, both on paper and on the ground.

Background: In December 2017, President Trump declared Jerusalem the capital of Israel and said the U.S. would open an embassy there, which occurred last May. But the embassy-consulate merger, first announced on Oct. 18 of last year by Secretary of State Pompeo, is far more than a cost-savings device or a means to improve past administrative operations. (Previously, the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv handled all matters relating to Gaza while the consulate in Jerusalem dealt with the West Bank and Jerusalem.)

Between the lines: The merger might create the impression that the administration envisions not a two-state solution, but what Israel's Netanyahu has called a "state-minus" Palestinian entity, with most of Jerusalem, save some potential adjustments, falling under Israeli sovereignty, along with much of the West Bank.

Coming a month before Israeli elections, the merger will also strengthen the bond between Trump and Netanyahu and further the perception that the administration wants Netanyahu re-elected.

The other side: Palestinians will see the merger of the consulate — after the closing of the Palestinian Liberation Organization office in Washington — as a further effort to downgrade their status. It will only fuel the apprehension that the Trump administration has no policy toward Palestinians beyond pressure and that Washington has surrendered its role as an effective broker.

What to watch: The administration's most decisive litmus test for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will come after Israel's April 9 elections, when it plans to unveil its much-touted "ultimate deal" Middle East peace plan. The odds of success for such an unprecedentedly comprehensive peace plan are vanishingly small.

Aaron David Miller is vice president for new initiatives and director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center and a former Middle East analyst and negotiator at the State Department under Democratic and Republican administrations.

U.S. adds strain to Palestinian ties with Jerusalem consulate merger

The move will be seen as another effort to downgrade Palestinians' status.

Israeli flags flutter in front of the Dome of the Rock in the Jerusalem's Old City, on February 19, 2019.

Israeli flags in front of the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem's Old City. Photo: Thomas Coex/AFP via Getty Images

A U.S. official announced yesterday that the U.S. Consulate General in Jerusalem, which serves Palestinians, will be <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="absorbed into the new U.S. Embassy" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-palestinians-usa/us-palestinian-mission-to-merge-with-israel-embassy-in-march-idUSKCN1Q82BC" data-vars-content-id="d6d136b6-b6de-460b-b5ce-71e424de9d0d" data-vars-headline="U.S. adds strain to Palestinian ties with Jerusalem consulate merger" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-palestinians-usa/us-palestinian-mission-to-merge-with-israel-embassy-in-march-idUSKCN1Q82BC" target="_blank">absorbed into the new U.S. Embassy</a> to Israel in March.Why it matters: The move is of a piece with the administration&#x27;s attempts to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="recast the Palestinian refugee issue" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/us-cuts-all-funding-to-unrwa-palestinian-refugees-05739016-176a-421f-bac2-73a5e7492531.html" data-vars-content-id="d6d136b6-b6de-460b-b5ce-71e424de9d0d" data-vars-headline="U.S. adds strain to Palestinian ties with Jerusalem consulate merger" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/us-cuts-all-funding-to-unrwa-palestinian-refugees-05739016-176a-421f-bac2-73a5e7492531.html" target="_self">recast the Palestinian refugee issue</a> and its <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="apparently tenuous commitment" data-vars-click-url="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/trump-israel-one-state-solution-214794" data-vars-content-id="d6d136b6-b6de-460b-b5ce-71e424de9d0d" data-vars-headline="U.S. adds strain to Palestinian ties with Jerusalem consulate merger" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/trump-israel-one-state-solution-214794" target="_blank">apparently tenuous commitment</a> to a two-state solution. The merger is yet another demonstration of the Trump peace team&#x27;s determination to change U.S. policy toward core elements of the Israeli-Palestinian issue, both on paper and on the ground.

Press reports this week have suggested the Trump Administration is preparing to take some action, potentially including defunding, against the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the much-maligned organization created in 1949 to provide assistance to Palestinian refugees. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley agreed on Tuesday that Palestinian refugees’ right of return — a demand critical to Palestinians and anathema to Israel — ought to be off the table.

The big picture: The administration may be ramping up pressure on the Palestinians ahead of rolling out Trump’s peace plan — his so-called Ultimate Deal. But criticism of UNRWA — an object of derision for Jared Kushner and other members of Trump’s peace team— might instead be part of a campaign to completely reset U.S. policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Indeed, the administration has long demonstrated a pattern of walking back — even disassociating — the U.S. from its past adherence to a two-state solution, and has sought to align its position more closely with the views of the Israeli Government and domestic constituencies. Beyond refugees and the right of return (which previous administrations steered clear of), two other tenets of the U.S. posture have been fundamentally recast:

Two-state solution: Trump has refused to endorse the idea, let alone base it on June 1967 lines, even with substantial territorial modifications. The administration’s use of the term “Palestinian state” has been grudging and qualified at best. Instead, the administration appears to favor some kind of Palestinian statelet, with Israel retaining large portions of the West Bank.

Jerusalem: Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and decision to open a U.S. embassy there was a major reframing of the traditional U.S. policy premised on Jerusalem as the undivided capital of two states, not one. In announcing this decision, the administration did also call for negotiation on the city’s borders and sovereignty. But there’s no indication that Washington, much less Israel, is prepared to support east Jerusalem hosting a real Palestinian capital, with Palestinian control over parts of the Old City and Palestinian neighborhoods.

The bottom line: Taken together, the administration’s recent actions reflect an intent to redefine the parameters of U.S. policy in a way that will virtually assure rejection by Palestinians and key Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, thereby relieving pressure on Israel. This redefinition comes at a time when the chances of a serious two-state negotiation are already minuscule. 

Yes, but: Perhaps that’s the point. After all, Kushner has often said that nothing has worked before. So with little hope of launching serious negotiations, why not shake things up? But whatever the administration believes such a shake-up will achieve, it’s hard to imagine that either peace or security for Israelis or Palestinians is among them.

Trump administration signals potential U.S. reset on Israel–Palestine

It appears to be walking back U.S. adherence to a two-state solution.

Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks during a United Nations Security Council meeting at UN Headquarters, July 24, 2018 in New York City. 

Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley speaks during a UN Security Council meeting on the Israel–Palestine conflict on July 24, 2018, in New York City. Photo: Drew Angerer via Getty Images

Press reports this week <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="have suggested" data-vars-click-url="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/28/middle-east-palestinian-israel-pompeo-trump-kushner-u-s-to-end-all-funding-to-u-n-agency-that-aids-palestinian-refugees/" data-vars-content-id="f814295d-0a95-48d7-847c-9ab33574e1e9" data-vars-headline="Trump administration signals potential U.S. reset on Israel–Palestine" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/28/middle-east-palestinian-israel-pompeo-trump-kushner-u-s-to-end-all-funding-to-u-n-agency-that-aids-palestinian-refugees/" target="_blank">have suggested</a> the Trump Administration is preparing to take some action, potentially including defunding, against the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the much-maligned organization created in 1949 to provide assistance to Palestinian refugees. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley agreed on Tuesday that Palestinian refugees’ right of return — a demand critical to Palestinians and anathema to Israel — ought to be off the table.The big picture: The administration may be ramping up pressure on the Palestinians ahead of rolling out Trump’s peace plan — <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="his so-called Ultimate Deal" data-vars-click-url="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/trump-chases-his-ultimate-deal" data-vars-content-id="f814295d-0a95-48d7-847c-9ab33574e1e9" data-vars-headline="Trump administration signals potential U.S. reset on Israel–Palestine" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/trump-chases-his-ultimate-deal" target="_blank">his so-called Ultimate Deal</a>. But criticism of UNRWA — an object of derision for Jared Kushner and other members of Trump’s peace team— might instead be part of a campaign to completely reset U.S. policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Aaron David Miller

Stories

U.S. adds strain to Palestinian ties with Jerusalem consulate merger

Trump administration signals potential U.S. reset on Israel–Palestine

Even after flare-ups, hope lingers for Israeli-Palestinian resolution

Gaza protests continue with no end in sight

As Trump weighs response to chemical attacks, U.S. future in Syria still unclear