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A key House Republican is putting forward a plan to make the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) an independent agency outside the Department of Commerce. 

Why it matters: Removing the agency from a Cabinet-level department could diminish its clout when it comes to securing funding and weighing in on key policy decisions, former senior NOAA officials tell Axios.  

It would also hollow out the Commerce Department, where NOAA comprises more than 50% of the budget.

NOAA plays an outsized role in American daily life, since it is responsible for forecasting the weather and issuing warnings for severe storms. The agency also regulates fisheries and runs some of the top climate change research centers in the world. 

State of play: A bill being circulated within the House Science, Space and Technology Committee by chairman Frank Lucas (Okla.)  would authorize NOAA and its mission in law for the first time. Lucas plans to formally introduce it this spring.

Committee Democrats, led by ranking member Zoe Lofgren (Calif.), are open to supporting the measure but are waiting to see all the details before deciding whether to back it, according to a Democratic committee aide. 

NOAA, which was created by an executive order in 1970, has always been an awkward fit in the Commerce Department. It was placed there because of a dispute then-president Richard Nixon had with his Interior secretary. 

However, making it an independent organization could deprive it of Cabinet-level influence. 

Yes, but: There is also precedent for the Commerce secretary to meddle with the agency due to political pressure, as occurred during the “Sharpiegate scandal” during Hurricane Dorian in 2019. 

In that instance, pressure from the White House and Commerce Department leadership forced NOAA to back away from its original forecast for Hurricane Dorian’s impacts, in order to support President Trump’s contention that the storm would threaten Alabama. 

Between the lines: A GOP Science Committee aide told Axios that Lucas’ effort is about ensuring that NOAA’s existence and mission is enshrined into law and reorganizing its structure to make its research operations more efficient. 

“Do we need all the existing line offices here? Do we need to consolidate? Do we need to combine?” the aide said. “We’re not really looking to have some massive reorientation of the agency, but partly it is somewhat of an organizational issue.” 

The bill would enter at least one polarizing area: it would require a study on moving NOAA’s endangered species and marine protection responsibilities to the Interior Department, which helps regulate energy development.

That is likely to encounter opposition on the Senate side, where Sen. Maria Cantwell, chair of the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, plans to introduce her own bill to enshrine NOAA into law, according to Democratic committee staff members. 

The Senate bill is unlikely to push for NOAA's independence. 

Some of NOAA’s responsibilities also fall under the purview of the House Resources Committee. 

What they’re saying: Two past agency leaders told Axios that making NOAA independent would likely be a net plus for the agency, since the Commerce Department controls many of its policy, spending and messaging decisions. 

“The principle of moving NOAA to be an independent agency, I support 1,000%,” said Tim Gallaudet, who served as an acting NOAA administrator under former President Trump. “I cannot tell you the number of times where progress was impeded by having to go through the bureaucratic layer of the Department of Commerce.“ 

But one former NOAA senior staff member, who spoke anonymously because they still do business with the agency, expressed reservations about NOAA’s ability to continue to secure adequate funding and maintain its visibility if it were an independent agency. 

For more content like this, join the waitlist for Axios Pro Energy Policy, launching Feb. 13.

House Science chair seeks to carve out an independent NOAA

NOAA has always been an awkward fit in the Department of Commerce.

NOAA satellite image showing Hurricane Ian nearing the coast of Florida on Sept. 28, 2022.

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Climate change

A key House Republican is putting forward a plan to make the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) an independent agency outside the Department of Commerce. Why it matters: Removing the agency from a Cabinet-level department could diminish its clout when it comes to securing funding and weighing in on key policy decisions, former senior NOAA officials tell Axios.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

A "multi-hazard storm system" that triggered multiple reports of damage from tornadoes and flooding in and near Houston on Tuesday is threatening to unleash further damage across the Gulf Coast.

The latest: Tornado risks remained as more than 15 million people in Gulf Coast areas including Houston, New Orleans and parts of Alabama were under threat from the storm, which was sweeping through Mississippi coastal communities as it pushed northeastward overnight.

By the numbers: Outages were affecting nearly 52,000 customers in Arkansas and more than 17, 200 others in Louisiana early Wednesday, according to utility tracker poweroutage.us. And nearly 57,300 customers were still without power in eastern Texas.

Of note: At least one tornado emergency — a very rare and limited warning — was issued for southeastern Harris County, Texas, according to the National Weather Service.

Tornado damage was reported in Pasadena, where power lines were knocked out and radar indicated debris from one twister near the city reached about 8,000 feet in the air.

Threat level: Areas most at risk overnight included New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Mobile, Ala., and extreme northwestern Florida. The Storm Prediction Center placed these areas in an "Enhanced Risk" zone, which is a level 3 out of 5 on its severe storm risk scale.

Winter weather was expected to hit West and North Texas on Tuesday, too.

Louisiana's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness said the state faced "another severe weather threat this week" and residents should remain alert.

State of play: Photos of the damage shared on social media showed crushed power lines, damaged homes, flooding and trashed roads, as tornado warnings were issued in Texas and across the South.

The hard-hit areas included many of the region's petrochemical plants, some of which had to be quickly shut down due to the severe weather. 

Zoom in: The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center recorded at least four tornado reports in Texas by Tuesday afternoon, as the Atascocita Fire Department said there was "a tornado related structure collapse" at a nursing home in the state's Deer Park.

Ground stops were issued for both Hobby and Bush International airports as the storms moved through Texas and flights weren't allowed to land there, the Houston Chronicle reports.

A senior assisted living facility in Deer Park was destroyed after a storm tore through the area, per the New York Times. While no one was injured, some 59 residents were displaced.

A screenshot of a tweet by the Houston fire chief warning, "Significant Tornado damage in areas of southeast HTX/Harris County."

Photo: City of Houston Fire Department Chief Samuel Peña/Twitter

What's next: The intensifying storm was expected to "have widespread impacts over the next few days across large areas to the east of the Mississippi River," per a National Weather Service forecast discussion early Wednesday.

It was set to push through the Ohio Valley and Lower Lakes on Wednesday and into the Northeast by early Thursday.

"This storm will be multi faceted and have significant impacts across a large portion of the nation from the Gulf coast into the Northeast," the NWS said.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with additional details throughout.

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Severe storms threaten Gulf Coast after tornadoes hit Houston

At least one tornado emergency was issued Tuesday.

A photo showing damage from a reported tornado in Houston, Texas.

Tornadoes

A &quot;multi-hazard <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="storm system" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/science/extreme-weather" data-vars-content-id="1b0d6d9c-187c-4278-b856-2a2a37003f40" data-vars-headline="Severe storms threaten Gulf Coast after tornadoes hit Houston" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/science/extreme-weather" target="_self">storm system</a>&quot; that triggered multiple reports of damage from tornadoes and flooding in and near <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Houston" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/houston" data-vars-content-id="1b0d6d9c-187c-4278-b856-2a2a37003f40" data-vars-headline="Severe storms threaten Gulf Coast after tornadoes hit Houston" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/houston" target="_self">Houston</a> on Tuesday is threatening to unleash further damage across the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Gulf Coast" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1618106402794360832" data-vars-content-id="1b0d6d9c-187c-4278-b856-2a2a37003f40" data-vars-headline="Severe storms threaten Gulf Coast after tornadoes hit Houston" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1618106402794360832" target="_blank">Gulf Coast</a>.The latest: Tornado risks remained as more than 15 million people in Gulf Coast areas including Houston, New Orleans and parts of Alabama were under <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="threat" data-vars-click-url="https://www.weather.gov/images/crh/dhs/wwa_population.png" data-vars-content-id="1b0d6d9c-187c-4278-b856-2a2a37003f40" data-vars-headline="Severe storms threaten Gulf Coast after tornadoes hit Houston" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.weather.gov/images/crh/dhs/wwa_population.png" target="_blank">threat</a> from the storm, which was <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="sweeping" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1618124005910761473" data-vars-content-id="1b0d6d9c-187c-4278-b856-2a2a37003f40" data-vars-headline="Severe storms threaten Gulf Coast after tornadoes hit Houston" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1618124005910761473" target="_blank">sweeping</a> through Mississippi coastal communities as it pushed northeastward overnight.

A new study relying on machine learning methods finds the climate thresholds enshrined in the Paris agreement may be coming up faster than previously anticipated.

Why it matters: The world is already suffering the impacts of 1.1°C (1.98°F) to 1.2°C (2.16°F) of warming to date, and passing 1.5°C or 2°C above preindustrial levels could dramatically increase the risks to society and ecosystems. 

The big picture: The study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, uses neural networks trained on climate model simulations to predict the time remaining until the Paris targets will be reached. 

The data-driven approach involves identifying patterns in historical temperature observations that provide clues to the time remaining until a warming level is exceeded.

The researchers from Stanford University and Colorado State University found the world has about a decade until the 1.5-degree target is reached and then exceeded, which is consistent with previous findings. 

Notably, it finds that even the lowest emissions scenario, featuring steep cuts to fossil fuel use in the next few decades, has a significant chance of breaching the 2°C target. The timeline for hitting 2°C ranges from 2043 to 2058, with a central estimate of 2050, the study finds. 

Between the lines: The study has some significant caveats, including the fact that the machine learning techniques may be biased by the computer models they were trained on. 

Study lead author Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford, told Axios the new paper took multiple steps to try to minimize the likelihood of such biases. 

The AI-enabled study is part of a trend in climate science toward focusing on developing new data analysis techniques. Some scientists are concerned this may come at the expense of potential new discoveries about how the climate system functions. 

What they're saying: "It's always a bit tricky to know how much faith to put in machine-learning methods like this given the absence of physical modeling of the systems involved," Zeke Hausfauther, climate research lead at payments company Stripe, who was not involved in the new study, told Axios via email. 

He said it offers "another reason for caution" that an emissions scenario assumed to hold warming to under 2°C may in fact "have a real chance of resulting in higher warming than we expect." 

Critical climate thresholds may be nearer than thought: study finds

The study concludes that even with steep emissions cuts, we're likely to reach or pass 2°C of warming.

Illustration of a metal dial with the Earth on it, turned upward.

Global warming

A new study relying on machine learning methods finds the climate thresholds enshrined in the Paris agreement may be coming up faster than previously anticipated.Why it matters: The world is already suffering the impacts of 1.1°C (1.98°F) to 1.2°C (2.16°F) of warming to date, and passing 1.5°C or 2°C above preindustrial levels could dramatically increase the risks to society and ecosystems.

The combination of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Arctic air spilling south from Canada is resulting in a long-duration ice storm for millions of people across at least eight states.

The big picture: At least six people in Texas have died as sleet, snow and freezing rain snarled road and air travel. Waves of mixed precipitation are forecast to spread northeast with time, lasting through early Thursday.

Ice storm warnings are in effect for 13 million people across large portions of Texas, including the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Arkansas.

A swath of winter storm warnings and weather advisories are also in effect for parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, New Mexico, West Virginia and Virginia.

Zoom in: The National Weather Service warned of "significant impacts" from the freezing rain and sleet, including an increasing threat of power outages.

Numerous car accidents were reported along the Interstate 35 corridor between Dallas and Oklahoma City Tuesday, and Austin police reported dozens of accidents, including some involving their own personnel.

One person was killed in Austin after being involved in a traffic pileup Tuesday. Another person, a 45-year-old man, died Monday night after his vehicle slid into a highway guardrail near Dallas amid icy road conditions, causing him to roll down an embankment, per AP.

The NWS forecast office in Austin is warning of extremely dangerous road conditions on Wednesday morning as light freezing rain falls across the city.

Threat level: The wintry mix, which was falling heavily in some areas, is expected to worsen as a new round of precipitation gathers across Texas and pushes quickly northeastward. The NWS forecast office in Dallas urged people to avoid travel if possible until early Thursday.

"Already hazardous roadways will continue to deteriorate across North and Central Texas with travel becoming near impossible today," forecasters said in an online discussion.

Of note: The areas at greatest risk for power outage looked to be from Little Rock to Memphis, as well as portions of Texas.

"Significant accumulations of ice and sleet are expected across much of the area, resulting in widespread impacts to travel and infrastructure," the NWS forecast office in Memphis stated in a forecast discussion.

About 261,000 customers were without power in Texas early Wednesday, according to PowerOutage.us. Many of the outages are in the Austin area, with about 122,000 customers of Austin Energy in the dark. 

A screenshot of ice coating traffic cameras in Texas.

Photo: Texas Department of Transportation via the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office/Twitter

In addition to the treacherous roadways, the winter storm was also causing air travel delays that are rippling out across the country.

Through 7:15 a.m. ET, 1,474 flights within, into or out of the U.S. had been canceled Tuesday. The majority of flights are coming from or going to Dallas Ft. Worth International Airport, according to FlightAware data. At least 7,244 flights had been delayed.

Memphis International Airport, the main hub for FedEx, as well as Austin and Nashville, have also been seeing numerous flight cancellations or delays related to the winter storm.

What's next: The cold air responsible for the icy mix has been setting records in the Rockies and Plains, and by this weekend, one of the coldest outbreaks in years, possibly decades, will roar into New England.

Tuesday morning saw the temperature in Wyoming dip to the minus-30s, and Denver reached a record low of minus-10 on Monday. 

A piece of the polar vortex in the lower atmosphere will whip from Hudson Bay across New England Saturday, sending temperatures plunging amid strong northwesterly winds. 

Wind chills in Boston could reach minus-30°F, with minus-50°F wind chills a possibility in northern New England. 

Wind chill watches are in effect for 16 million people across New England, including Boston, Hartford and Portland, Maine. 

Fortunately, the Siberian-level cold will be brief, with temperatures moderating by Monday.

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Deadly ice storm stretches from Texas to Kentucky

The storm is sending repeated waves of sleet, freezing rain and snow surging northeast from Texas.

Emergency managers in Texas monitor the winter storm situation on Jan. 31.

A weather operations room is seen at the State Operations Center on January 31, 2023 in Austin, Texas. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

extreme weather

The combination of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Arctic air spilling south from Canada is resulting in a long-duration <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="ice storm" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/science/extreme-weather" data-vars-content-id="80a22cf6-36b9-4655-b5f2-51720b2f2c1b" data-vars-headline="Deadly ice storm stretches from Texas to Kentucky" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/science/extreme-weather" target="_self">ice storm</a> for millions of people across at least eight states.The big picture: At least six people in Texas have <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="died" data-vars-click-url="https://apnews.com/article/weather-accidents-west-virginia-austin-dallas-9699c579e14b232af86401bf84f41192" data-vars-content-id="80a22cf6-36b9-4655-b5f2-51720b2f2c1b" data-vars-headline="Deadly ice storm stretches from Texas to Kentucky" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://apnews.com/article/weather-accidents-west-virginia-austin-dallas-9699c579e14b232af86401bf84f41192" target="_blank">died</a> as sleet, snow and freezing rain snarled road and air travel. Waves of mixed precipitation are forecast to spread northeast with time, lasting through early Thursday.

The eastern Horn of Africa just saw an unprecedented fifth straight failed rainy season on record, making it the longest and most severe drought in 70 years of precipitation data.

The region is likely headed for a sixth poor rainy season this spring, a new forecast warns. 

Why it matters: The drought has tipped the region, which encompasses much of Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, into widespread severe food insecurity. It has also driven Somalia to the brink of famine. 

State of play: More than 1.3 million people in Somalia have been forced to leave their farms and migrate to seek food in displacement sites. 

About 8.3 million Somalis are at risk of famine if more humanitarian assistance is not delivered soon, according to the International Rescue Committee, an aid group. 

The big picture: The ongoing drought has its roots in a combination of human-induced global warming and La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

La Niña can temporarily reconfigure global weather patterns, bringing increased rainfall to Indonesia, whereas eastern Africa tends to see reduced rains. 

The warming climate worsens droughts by boosting air temperatures and enhancing evaporation from soils and vegetation. 

Globally, ocean temperatures are also increasing rapidly, which tilts the odds in favor of wet and dry precipitation extremes. 

What they're saying: The Famine Early Warning Systems Network called the rainfall totals for the most recent October through December period "grim" in a statement issued Monday. 

"Five inches or so of rain, over three months, in a very hot region, is very close to no rainfall," Chris Funk, research director at the University of California at Santa Barbara's Climate Hazards Center, said in a statement.

Threat level: The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons per year, one from March to May, and another from October to December. 

The Hazards Center predicts the sixth straight failed wet season from March to May of this year, as La Niña's effects are expected to linger. 

The drought is worsening a humanitarian crisis at a time when parts of the region are in conflict, a type of scenario national security planners expect the U.S. and other countries will encounter more frequently abroad due to global warming. 

Horn of Africa may see record sixth straight failed rainy season

The rare "triple dip La Niña" plus climate change has yielded an extended, intense drought.

A woman tries to get clean water in Kajiado, Kenya, during a severe drought.

A woman tries to get clean water in Kajiado, Kenya on Nov. 13, 2022. Photo: Gerald Anderson/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Africa

The eastern Horn of Africa just saw an unprecedented fifth straight failed rainy season on record, making it the longest and most severe drought in 70 years of precipitation data.<ul><li>The region is likely headed for a sixth poor rainy season this spring, a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="new forecast" data-vars-click-url="https://agrilinks.org/post/updated-climate-forecasts-continue-suggest-below-normal-2023-march-april-may-rains-likely" data-vars-content-id="bdf7cfa3-90f2-49ec-9bf2-b79e8f7316bc" data-vars-headline="Horn of Africa may see record sixth straight failed rainy season" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://agrilinks.org/post/updated-climate-forecasts-continue-suggest-below-normal-2023-march-april-may-rains-likely" target="_blank">new forecast</a> warns. </li></ul>Why it matters: The drought has tipped the region, which encompasses much of Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, into widespread severe food insecurity. It has also <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="driven Somalia to the brink of famine" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/09/somalia-famine-unhcr-drought-hunger-explainer" data-vars-content-id="bdf7cfa3-90f2-49ec-9bf2-b79e8f7316bc" data-vars-headline="Horn of Africa may see record sixth straight failed rainy season" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/09/somalia-famine-unhcr-drought-hunger-explainer" target="_self">driven Somalia to the brink of famine</a>.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Andrew Freedman

Stories

Deadly ice storm stretches from Texas to Kentucky

House Science chair seeks to carve out an independent NOAA

Critical climate thresholds may be nearer than thought: study finds

Severe storms threaten Gulf Coast after tornadoes hit Houston

Horn of Africa may see record sixth straight failed rainy season