1 big thing: The bill and the midterms

Illustration of a lawn sign that says "Vote," but the O is an earth. 

2. Charted: Potential clean power growth

3. 🏃🏽‍♀️Catch up fast on the climate legislation

4. Arctic warming may be underestimated

Illustration of pile of melting snow next to a flame

5. EV "charging deserts" are a problem

6. European drought as seen from space

Satellite image comparison showing impacts from heat waves, drought and wildfires in Europe.

🍺 Made it! Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,142 words, 4.5 minutes. 

🚨 Democats' big climate bill is likely to clear Congress later today. Please watch the Axios website for updates.

🎸 Happy birthday to Mark Knopfler of Dire Straits, whose brilliant guitar work animates this week's final intro tune...

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National

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Untangle the energy industry’s biggest news stories

Axios Generate

1 big thing: Why this climate bill is different

2. Oil's back to the future moment

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3. New support for electric planes

Archer Aviation's electric vertical takeoff plane 

Europe faces heat wave, raging wildfires and dire drought

4. Europe's heat, drought and wildfire woes

Map showing a model projection of extreme heat in Western Europe.

5. Cities roll out "resilience hubs" to combat heat

Image of the "resilience hub" in Miami country

☀️ Good morning! Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,232 words, 5 minutes. 

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🎶 At this moment in 2006, Nelly Furtado (featuring Timbaland) ruled the Billboard Hot 100 with today's catchy intro tune...

🙏Thanks for reading and we'll see you back here tomorrow.

1 big thing: America's new "Extreme Heat Belt"

Bonus: "Dangerous days" proliferate in the South

2. Charted: The limits of the electric car credits

3. How cleantech subsidies could boost EPA rules

A dollar bill coming out of a smokestack.

4. 🏃🏽‍♀️Catch up fast: Aramco and nuclear power

5. Meet the UN's next climate boss (we think)

🥞 Welcome back! Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,265 words, 5 minutes. 

🚨 The Bill Gates-founded TerraPower raised at least $750 million in its push to develop small-scale nuclear reactors, Bloomberg reports.

🎶 This week marks 35 years since Tom Waits released the album "Franks Wild Years," which provides today's intro tune...

Editor's note: The second item has been clarified to note that the vehicles purchased with the credits would be 3% of worldwide EV sales last year.

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Investors like the climate deal

1 big thing: Investors like the climate deal

Projecting electric car sales is getting trickier

2. Projecting electric car sales is getting trickier

3. Drought hits EU, U.K. amid another heat wave

Map showing drought severity across Europe, with red hues indicating the most severe conditions.

4. A big EV buy and more energy tech notes

Illustration of a fleet of cars on a hundred dollar bill with Benjamin Franklin's eyes peering through. 

5. Ford's new solar power push

Illustration of a stack of solar panels with a currency band 

🐪 Oh wow, Wednesday already. Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,207 words, 5 minutes. 

⛽ The average national gas price fell under $4 per gallon for the first time since March, per GasBuddy (or is about to, per AAA). Go deeper.

🎶 At this moment in 1976, George Benson was #1 on the Billboard album charts with "Breezin'," which provides today's intro tune...

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1 big thing: The signature is only the beginning 

Photo illustration of President Biden walking down a carpet of legislative papers, with waves in the paper ahead of him

2. Europe is facing winter peril

3. One EV advantage: cheaper fuel costs

4. Catch up fast on oil: markets, BP, carbon

Illustration of three oil barrels with red background

5. Charted: U.S. air conditioning 

☀️ Good morning! Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,026 words, 4 minutes. 

🚨 Situational awareness: Federal officials are expected to cut water supplies to states relying on the Colorado River "as drought and climate change leave less water flowing" and deplete reservoirs, AP reports.

🎶 At this moment in 1971, Marvin Gaye was atop Billboard's R&B charts with a brilliant single that's today's intro tune...

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The most sweeping climate change legislation in U.S. history is on its way to President Biden's desk after clearing the House Friday in a 220-207 party-line vote. 

Why it matters: In addition to huge investments for clean energy technologies, the bill will eventually help shift where our energy comes from, the appliances we purchase, how we heat and cool our homes, which cars we drive, and even the jobs we have. 

The big picture: The legislation will attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through billions of dollars in incentives, grants and other support to develop clean energy and emissions-reducing technologies. 

Those technologies include hydrogen, energy storage devices and direct air capture that pulls CO2 from the atmosphere. 

But none of these will be visible to most people in the short term. Instead, how much it affects you will depend on your economic status and your stage in life. 

If you're in the market for an electric vehicle or a new water heater, you'll see this bill's effects quickly. But if you don't own a home and aren't going car shopping anytime soon, it may take longer for you to notice its footprint. 

Zoom in: The bill's changes and expansion of electric vehicle tax credits have received the most media attention to date, but its home electrification provisions are more significant, experts tell Axios.

For the country's 122 million households, the bill contains about $100 billion for electrification programs at the neighborhood level, according to Rewiring America, a nonprofit group whose proposals helped shape some bill provisions.

These are designed to tilt the playing field toward the most energy-efficient option when you need to make a big purchase, such as for a new water heater or air conditioner, by making electric appliances cheaper.

Because of the way these benefits are structured, it's likely they will affect you at some point in the next decade. 

What they're saying: "This bill is effectively $100 billion of investment in enabling American families to go from being reliant on fossil fuel machines to being able to access efficient electric machines. And that's across the board," Ari Matusiak, CEO of Rewiring America, told Axios in an interview. 

Between the lines: Matusiak's group has calculated that a household could see annual savings of up to $1,800 if they install a modern electric heat pump to replace their furnace and a heat pump for water heating, and buy an electric vehicle and rooftop solar panels.

The bill includes incentives to make these upgrades more affordable, and the financial support would be greater for low- and middle-income households. 

Those incentives would include a 30% tax credit up to $2,000 toward the cost of a heat pump space heater, as well as money to upgrade a home's electrical panel should it be insufficient to handle the increased load of the new appliances, Dan Lashof of the World Resources Institute said in an interview with Axios. 

Heat pumps would also become cheaper because there would be more of them available, Lashof said, since the bill provides $500 million for manufacturing them under the Defense Production Act. 

The measure will also increase the tax credit for rooftop solar installations from 10% to 30% of the cost, retroactively applied by one year.

Yes, but: For renters, it may take longer for the new law to be tangible.  

The bill's incentives could prompt property managers and builders to install more efficient appliances when renovating rental units or building new ones, which could lower electric and heating bills. 

Depending on the bill's implementation and market conditions, the bill could help reduce energy costs overall by 2030 as more clean energy comes online, edging out fossil fuels economically, Ben King of the Rhodium Group, a consulting firm, told Axios in an interview.

This would be noticed by all consumers, not just the ones shelling out for new appliances, King said. 

The other side: The bill's congressional opponents argued it would actually raise costs on consumers, not lower them, and that it would make domestic fossil fuel production more expensive, too. 

If they are proven correct, the upsides for some could be more muted, or even negated.

Congress sends $740 billion tax, health and climate bill to Biden's desk

Scoop: GOP plans effort to sabotage Inflation Reduction Act

The coming scramble for clean energy workers

When you'll see the climate bill's impact

It will change where our energy comes from, the appliances we purchase and how we heat and cool our homes.

Animation illustration of earth with moving clock hands

Climate change policy

Climate change

The most sweeping <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="climate change" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/energy-environment/climate-change" data-vars-content-id="0720a942-db15-4599-ace9-7cadb87bea35" data-vars-headline="When you&#x27;ll see the climate bill&#x27;s impact" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/energy-environment/climate-change" target="_self">climate change</a> legislation in U.S. history is on its way to President Biden&#x27;s desk after clearing the House Friday in a 220-207 party-line vote. Why it matters: In addition to huge investments for clean energy technologies, the bill will eventually help shift where our energy comes from, the appliances we purchase, how we heat and cool our homes, which cars we drive, and even the jobs we have.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

Officials warn a forecast downpour that has some 7 million people on flood watch won't be enough to stave off the need for drastic water cuts as the Colorado River's depleted reservoirs sink to near-crisis levels.

Driving the news: As the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for an area covering from Arizona to Wyoming, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has given Western states that rely on the Colorado River Basin for water supplies until Tuesday to outline how they plan to make cuts.

An NWS map showing some 7 million people are under flood watch, from Arizona to Wyoming.

Why it matters: If authorities in the affected states of California, Arizona and Nevada in the Lower Basin and Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming and Utah in the Upper Basin fail to come up with their own agreement by then, the Interior Department will step in.

Bureau of Reclamation chief Camille Calimlim Touton has warned that "immediate action" is needed to avoid a water supply crisis in the region next year.

Yes, but: Negotiations on water cuts among the Colorado River's Lower Basin authorities have yet to produce an agreement.

Our thought bubble: The Southwest continues to benefit from an active monsoon season, which is helping ease short-term drought conditions in New Mexico, parts of Nevada and southern Colorado. 

However, it is not making a dent nor is it expected to, in the long-term, curtail historic drought and water woes in the Colorado River Basin.

Context: The Southwest is mired in its worst drought of at least the past 1,200 years, which studies tie in large part to global warming.

The megadrought has plunged the nation's two largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, to historic lows.

By the numbers: Between 2 million acre-feet and 4 million acre-feet of additional conservation is needed just to protect critical levels in 2023, according to Touton.

Officials believe up to a third of the Colorado River's flows need to be urgently conserved in order to avoid a crisis at Lake Powell, per Politico.

Threat level: "The Colorado River Basin is in the 23rd year of a historic drought. Both Lake Powell and Lake Mead — the two largest reservoirs in the United States — are at historically low levels with a combined storage capacity of 28% of capacity," Touton said at a U.S. Senate hearing in June.

The bottom line: "While Reclamation and its partners have been successful in conserving water in Lake Mead and Colorado River System reservoirs, more needs to be done as the system reaches critically low water levels," Touton told the senators. "The system is at a tipping point."

Go deeper: Colorado River ranked as "most endangered" in the nation

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Colorado River at drought tipping point

States that rely on the river basin for water supplies have until Tuesday to outline plans or the Biden administration will step in.

A man walks on a finger of exposed land at Lake Mead reservoir during the drought on July 9, 2022 in Boulder City, Nevada. 

Exposed land in July during the drought at Lake Mead reservoir in Boulder City, Nev. Photo: RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images

Drought

Extreme weather

Officials warn a forecast downpour that has some 7 million people on flood watch won&#x27;t be enough to stave off the need for drastic water cuts as the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Colorado River&#x27;s depleted" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/10/drought-discovered-severe-colorado-river" data-vars-content-id="b4711f35-b422-4876-bdf2-a08b49355c53" data-vars-headline="Colorado River at drought tipping point" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/10/drought-discovered-severe-colorado-river" target="_self">Colorado River&#x27;s depleted</a> reservoirs sink to near-crisis levels.Driving the news: As the National Weather Service issued a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="flood watch" data-vars-click-url="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd" data-vars-content-id="b4711f35-b422-4876-bdf2-a08b49355c53" data-vars-headline="Colorado River at drought tipping point" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd" target="_blank">flood watch</a> for an area covering from Arizona to Wyoming, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has given Western states that rely on the Colorado River Basin for water supplies until Tuesday to outline how they plan to make cuts.

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

Axios Events

Note: Shaded counties are those that will, on average, have 0.5 days or more at or above a 125F° heat index in 2053; Data: First Street Foundation; Map: Axios Visuals 

A new study reveals the emergence of an "extreme heat belt" from Texas to Illinois, where the heat index could reach 125°F at least one day a year by 2053. 

The big picture: In just 30 years, climate change will cause the Lower 48 states to be a far hotter and more precarious place to be during the summer. 

The findings come from a hyperlocal analysis of current and future extreme heat events published Monday by the nonprofit First Street Foundation. 

The new report is unique for examining current and future heat risks down to the property level across the country, and joins similar risk analyses First Street has completed for flooding and wildfires. 

As average temperatures increase due to human-driven greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels for energy, instances of extreme heat are forecast to escalate. 

This report makes clear where households will be vulnerable to what would now be considered almost unheard-of heat indices, which show how the air feels from the combination of air temperature and relative humidity.  

Threat Level: The report, which is based on First Street's peer reviewed heat model, shows that the number of Americans currently exposed to "extreme heat," defined as having a maximum heat index of greater than 125°F, is just 8 million. 

However, due to the anticipated warming during the next three decades, that number is expected to balloon to 107 million people, an increase of 13 times over 30 years. 

The developing "Extreme Heat Belt" forms a region of vulnerability from northern Texas to Illinois, and includes the cities of St. Louis, Kansas City, Memphis, Tulsa and Chicago. 

By 2030, some coastal areas in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic may also experience days with a heat index above 125°F, the report found. 

Zoom in: The report shows a country that will have to grapple with the effects of increased heat exposure nearly everywhere, though there will be distinctions based on geography. 

For example, the study finds that in 2053, the West will have the highest chance for long durations with "local hot days," which are days that exceed the temperatures typically experienced for a particular area.

The Gulf and Southeast will see the highest chances and longest duration of exposure to what are termed "dangerous days," with a heat index greater than 100°F, the report found. 

Between the lines: The states likely to see the greatest growth in dangerous days are Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Florida, First Street's analysis found. 

The counties with the largest changes in dangerous days between 2023 and 2053 are mainly located in Florida, led by the populous areas of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. 

The report shows how the characteristics of heat waves may change in the near future. Many spots currently see more than 20 straight days with heat indices above 100°F. However by 2053,  such streaks could be as many as 74 consecutive days, the report states. 

The study also sheds light on cooling demand driven by the increasingly hot conditions, including cooling-driven increases in carbon emissions, which would aggravate warming further. 

And Texas, Florida, California, Ohio and Missouri constitute the top 5 states with the biggest cooling demand-related uptick in CO2 emissions between now and 2053, the report shows. 

Meanwhile... The U.S. is already seeing the clear fingerprints of human-caused global warming on extreme heat events. Last month, for example, the country's nighttime lows were the warmest on record for any month. 

Unusually hot overnight temperatures during heat waves increase the risk to public health of heat-related illness. 

In addition, the number of warm temperature records outnumbered the cold temperature records by a ratio of nearly eight-to-one. 

What's next: Communities are innovating to reduce the impacts of extreme heat and put in place better heat action plans, among other climate resilience steps.

Heat waves around the world are connected, scientists say

Global warming sharply escalated the risk and severity of the UK heat wave: study

An "Extreme Heat Belt" will soon emerge in the U.S., study warns

The country is already seeing the impacts of hotter, more widespread heat waves.

A new study reveals the emergence of an &quot;extreme heat belt&quot; from Texas to Illinois, where the heat index could reach 125°F at least one day a year by 2053. The big picture: In just 30 years, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="climate change" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/energy-environment/climate-change" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/energy-environment/climate-change" target="_self">climate change</a> will cause the Lower 48 states to be a far hotter and more precarious place to be during the summer.

Data: Axios research; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

The Democrats' climate bill that the House is expected to take up Friday follows decades of legislative failure on climate change — which could end because of a change in strategy and changing circumstances. 

Why it matters: If the bill passes and heads to President Biden's desk, experts say it will be because Democrats abandoned the strategy of simply making carbon emissions too painful to maintain — and because Americans are now increasingly aware of the costly impacts of climate change.

The big picture: The bill, by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), will inject about $370 billion into the economy for expanding the use of clean energy, boosting climate resilience for communities and beginning to decarbonize industrial sectors, among other goals. 

It comes 34 years after then-NASA climate scientist James Hansen first warned the Senate, and the country, about the perils of human-caused global warming due to the burning of fossil fuels. 

Since then, there have been unsuccessful attempts to pass climate legislation, including one by Republican Sen. John McCain and Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman in 2003 and another by Democratic Reps. Henry Waxman and Ed Markey in 2009 that fell apart in the Senate the next year. 

Between the lines: The new bill stands in stark contrast to the approach favored for decades by environmental economists and key lawmakers. 

Past attempts to tackle climate change relied on putting a price on carbon through a carbon tax or a so-called cap and trade system. Both would have regulated the global warming gas from the top down, by making such pollution more expensive.

That has proved to be politically toxic, over and over again. 

What they're saying: Jason Grumet, founder and president of the Bipartisan Policy Center, said the environmental movement and lawmakers made a mistake by following the economists.

"The biggest political malpractice over the last 30 years was buying into the Econ 101 notion that government shouldn't pick technology, that Congress and elected officials should support a strategy which will be perceived as painful with no political narrative of success," Grumet told Axios in an interview. 

"Members of Congress love to pick technology, it's kind of all they love to do. It's exciting and you can talk about jobs in your states," he said. 

This changed beginning in about 2018, once scientists came out and said that many more technologies, including as-yet-unproven ones that would draw carbon out of the air, would be needed to avert potentially catastrophic impacts from global warming, Grumet said. 

The intrigue: There are several other reasons why this bill is likely to meet a different fate than the doomed climate bills of the past three decades. 

Paul Bledsoe, who served as a White House climate staffer during the Clinton administration, points to the falling costs of clean energy, particularly solar and wind power, as a key reason for its success in the Senate.

There is also intense consumer interest in clean technologies, Bledsoe said. 

And since 2003, when McCain and Lieberman sought votes for their climate bill, a large, diverse and determined social movement has formed around global climate action. 

The other side: Republican opposition to the bill was unanimous in the Senate and is likely to be nearly so in the House, with lawmakers arguing that the bill would raise taxes, add to inflation and make fossil fuel development more expensive. 

The long road to the climate bill

The bill's authors have learned from decades of "political malpractice."

clean energy

The Democrats&#x27; climate bill that the House is expected to take up Friday follows decades of legislative failure on climate change — which could end because of a change in strategy and changing circumstances. Why it matters: If the bill passes and heads to President Biden&#x27;s desk, experts say it will be because Democrats abandoned the strategy of simply making carbon emissions too painful to maintain — and because Americans are now increasingly aware of the costly impacts of climate change.

This is the summer that climate change impacts are becoming overwhelmingly obvious and costly across much of Europe. 

The big picture: Western Europe's fourth region-wide, fierce heat wave of the summer is well underway. 

It's pushing temperatures into the triple digits Fahrenheit in Portugal, Spain, and France, and close to that level in the United Kingdom. 

French firefighters are battling a nearly 20,000-acre blaze in the Gironde region that has forced thousands from their homes, while other fires burn elsewhere in the heat-affected regions. 

That wildfire, burning in pine forests south of Bordeaux, has required the deployment of at least 1,000 firefighters, according to Reuters, with more resources on the way. 

Temperatures in the region are forecast to exceed 100°F Thursday and Friday along with low relative humidity levels, making firefighting conditions extremely challenging.

Threat level: In the U.K., where temperatures are forecast to soar into the mid-to-upper 90s today through Sunday, the Met Office has hoisted an Amber "Extreme Heat Warning" through the period.

Temperatures were in the triple digits Fahrenheit in Portugal, Spain and France.

This is the summer that climate change impacts are becoming overwhelmingly obvious and costly across much of Europe. The big picture: Western Europe&#x27;s fourth region-wide, fierce heat wave of the summer is well underway.

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Stories

An "Extreme Heat Belt" will soon emerge in the U.S., study warns

Colorado River at drought tipping point

When you'll see the climate bill's impact

Europe faces heat wave, raging wildfires and dire drought

The long road to the climate bill

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🛣️ Long road ahead

🌞 "Extreme Heat Belt"

🗳️ New climate politics

🔢 Thanks a lot, economists

📈 Investors weigh in