1 big thing: Companies are off track on net-zero goals

Illustration of a briefcase with three smoke stacks with carbon fumes coming out. 

2. G7 agrees to pursue a price cap on Russian oil 

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3. How Russia skirts sanctions on energy

4. Methane emissions are increasing, watchdog finds

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🌞 Good morning. Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,140 words, 4.5 minutes.

🚨 Situational awareness: The White House announced $700 million in private sector investments to help build 250,000 EV chargers per year. 

🎶 Happy birthday to singer/songwriter Mark Stoermer, the bassist for The Killers, who have today's intro tune.

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Untangle the energy industry’s biggest news stories

Axios Generate

1 big thing: G7 leaders stare down energy tug of war

Illustration of a tug of war rope looped around a piece of coal with hands pulling on either end.

Bonus: Charting coal's rise and fall in the U.S.

2. More global heat records broken.... in June

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3. Hardening social infrastructure against heat

Woman writing in a cooling center in Portland, Oregon during a deadly heat wave in 2021.

4. Tesla dominates as EV sales rise  

🌅 Good morning, Andrew here as Ben is on vacation. Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,169 words, 4.5 minutes.

🚨 I'll be on U.S. Supreme Court watch for the ruling in West Virginia v. EPA, which may curtail the agency's ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. 

🎶 Let's take a look back at a past Glastonbury Festival Saturday headliner. Radiohead has today's moody intro tune from 1997...

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1 big thing: Threat of compounding climate extremes

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Bonus: Map shows drought yields hotter heat waves

Chart showing the impacts of severe drought on heat waves from a climate science study.

2. First look: New program to turn mines into clean energy hubs

Illustration of a line of wind turbines in a field at night, with one glowing brightly.

3. Funding spotlight: Twelve and Cleartrace get new backing

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4. Frontier facilitates its first carbon removal projects

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5. 🏃🏽Catch up fast: European climate plan moves forward

🌄 Good Wednesday morning. Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,228 words, 5 minutes.

👀 All eyes will be on the U.S. Supreme Court, where a decision in West Virginia v. EPA is possible (though not guaranteed) after 10am ET.

🎶 It's summer, with sunshine in D.C. today, and that has me thinking of the first line of "Rylan" from The National, who have today's intro tune.

📬 Did a friend send you this newsletter? Welcome, please sign up. Thanks for reading and see you back here tomorrow.

1 big thing: Biden's gas price predicament

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Bonus: Massive margins for oil refiners

2. First Look: Salesforce joins AT&T in cutting IoT emissions

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3. Hydrogen is riding an investment wave

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4. The SEC's brewing 1st Amendment fight

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5. Charted: coal's staying power

6. Quote of the day

☕ Good morning! Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,238 words, 5 minutes. 

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🎸 Neil Young & Crazy Horse's live album "Year of the Horse" just turned 25 and provides today's churning intro tune...

🙏Thanks for reading and we'll see you back here tomorrow.

1 big thing: Real-time climate attribution arrives

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2. Oil drillers can't escape the supply chain crunch

3. The "emergency" gas meeting: what we learned

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4. Auto giants look to simplify EV charging

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Bonus EV news: lithium investment

5. Fallout from the Freeport LNG shutdown

🍺 Oh yes! Get ready. Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,214 words, 5 minutes. 

🚨 More than 1 million acres have burned already in Alaska, an early summer record. It raises concerns about added greenhouse gas emissions. 

🎶 At this moment in 2000, the late Aaliyah was #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 with today's irresistible intro tune...

📬 Did a friend send you this newsletter? Welcome, please sign up. Have a great weekend and thanks for reading! 

Methane emissions are sharply increasing despite a global consensus to crack down on the powerful global warming gas, according to new data from the French methane tracking firm Kayrros. 

The new report, based on satellite data, examines some of the biggest energy-producing regions in the world, including the U.S., Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Iran and Turkmenistan. 

Why it matters: Methane acts on much shorter timescales than carbon dioxide, and emissions cuts could reduce near-term warming. Its major sources include oil and gas drilling and infrastructure, landfills and agriculture.

A coalition of more than 100 nations is taking part in the voluntary Global Methane Pledge, which looks to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. 

Zoom in: The report released Monday found that major oil, gas and coal-producing basins, including the Permian in the U.S., have seen increases in methane emissions so far this year that exceed an uptick in energy production.

The report found there was a 33% increase in methane emissions from the Permian Basin between the first quarter of 2022 and the previous quarter. 

Much of the increase comes from small, privately-owned operators, the report states. These firms tend not to publicly report their methane emissions and have not committed to reducing them, it notes. 

What they're saying: “This is an alarm call for the fossil fuel industry," said Antoine Halff, co-founder and chief analyst at Kayrros, in a statement. 

Despite global pledge, methane emissions are increasing

Methane acts on much shorter timescales than carbon dioxide, and emissions cuts could reduce near-term warming.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photo: Ashley Cooper/Construction Photography/Avalon/Getty Images

Methane

Energy & Environment

Climate scientists are now able to tell whether climate change fuels temperature extremes in real-time, and even ahead of time, using forecast models, historical data and peer-reviewed scientific research.

Why it matters: Presented in a compelling visual format accessible to the lay public and TV meteorologists alike, a new product known as the "Climate Shift Index," or CSI, was unveiled this week by Climate Central, a nonprofit research and journalism organization. The product signals a shift in thinking about the ties between daily weather and long-term climate change.

Driving the news: Climate scientists have made great strides during the past decade in teasing out the role human-caused global warming plays in worsening or setting off extreme weather events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall. 

These studies, known as extreme event attribution, have taken place after a disaster, and involve sifting through complex historical data and computer model simulations.

Climate Central's real-time effort is currently limited to just one important parameter: temperature, though the intention is to expand it as science permits.

Based on methods recently published in a peer-reviewed journal, the organization is using a weather model combined with other sources to place daily high and low temperatures in a climate change context.

The CSI tool, as designed by Climate Central's researchers along with outside attribution experts, gives a number to indicate the influence of climate change on daily high and low temperatures.

Specifically, the CSI indicates how frequently certain temperatures now occur in a warming world.

Climate Shift Index showing climate change's influence on a day's temperatures in the U.S.

Map of the Climate Shift Index for overnight low temperatures on June 23, 2022. (Climate Central)

Zoom in: If the CSI level is above zero, human-caused climate change has made a day's temperature more common. A below zero reading would indicate climate change has made that day's temperature more rare compared to a climate without human-caused warming.

The scale is a categorical one going from minus-5 to positive 5 and is available from the prior day out to three days ahead of time.

A CSI value of 2 means the day's temperature was made at least twice as likely to occur compared to a world without human-caused global warming, and a CSI level of 5 means local temperatures were at least five times as likely.

During the testing phase last year, Climate Central found that 99% of the daily high temperatures in the U.S. had a CSI ranging from minus-4 to 4.

How it works: The CSI may seem intuitive, but behind it lies years of slowly advancing work in determining how climate change is stacking the deck in favor of more heat records and fewer cold extremes.

To compute it, Climate Central uses two methods that it averages together. One utilizes 22 climate models, which are run with and without added greenhouse gases from human activities.

The researchers also examine observational data going back 30 years to determine the frequency of observed or forecasted temperatures, and this is used to determine how a location's temperatures change in response to shifting global average temperatures.

The end result is a CSI that incorporates real-world data and simulations of the global climate system.

Yes, but: In the past, scientists tended to be reluctant to attribute individual extreme weather events to climate change, citing uncertainties. However, that is no longer the case for many types of extremes, owing to scientific advances and increasingly obvious climate signals.

For example, recent studies found the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave was "virtually impossible" without the influence of human-caused climate change, and the heat wave in India and Pakistan this spring was made 30 times more likely as well as about 1°C more severe.

What they're saying: "When extreme weather occurs, we talk about climate change — when it hits us in the face. But climate change is affecting weather every day, temperatures most strongly, with consequences we haven’t even started to think about, let alone calculate and prevent," said Friederike Otto, a climate researcher at Imperial College London who co-authored the Climate Central paper underlying the CSI, in a statement.

Otto co-leads the World Weather Attribution Project, which is a global effort on extreme event attribution.

"This is a big step forward for operationalized event attribution," Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University who was not involved in the Climate Central effort, told Axios via email.

Other outside scientists told Axios the new product is both methodologically sound and is likely to be useful for climate change communications.

The era of real-time climate change attribution is here

The new Climate Central "Climate Shift Index" could change the climate conversation.

Climate change

Illustration of a live video symbol with a blinking sun.

Extreme weather

Climate scientists are now able to tell whether climate change fuels temperature extremes in real-time, and even ahead of time, using forecast models, historical data and peer-reviewed scientific research.Why it matters: Presented in a compelling visual format accessible to the lay public and TV meteorologists alike, a new product known as the &quot;<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Climate Shift Index" data-vars-click-url="https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/introducing-the-climate-shift-index" data-vars-content-id="4b2303bb-c731-4558-94f9-2c96c9aa3f09" data-vars-headline="The era of real-time climate change attribution is here" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/introducing-the-climate-shift-index" target="_blank">Climate Shift Index</a>,&quot; or CSI, was unveiled this week by Climate Central, a nonprofit research and journalism organization. The product signals a shift in thinking about the ties between daily weather and long-term climate change.

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

Two new studies shed light on the increasing risks the world faces from global warming and how such dangers can escalate in a cascading fashion.

Why it matters: One study published this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters warns that certain extremes, such as drought, can exacerbate other climate hazards like heat waves.

Driving the news: When climate change-related extremes interact, they can create cascading and unprecedented outcomes, per the new research.

The Southwest is currently enduring a prolonged, human-induced megadrought, and these conditions are raising the odds for a hotter, drier summer with high wildfire risks.

The big picture: The study shows that extreme drought in the Southwest during June of 2021 led to record heat throughout the region, and exacerbated the dry conditions.

Its authors say similar interactions between drought and heat likely enabled wildfires in New Mexico to grow to record sizes in the past few months.

"The outcome is more than the sum of its parts," study co-author Benjamin Zaitchik, a Johns Hopkins University researcher, said via an email exchange.

"We're seeing a climate change signal of earlier springs, faster drying, and early summer warmth feed back on itself, leading to larger impacts than we would predict taking each hazard on its own."

Context: The threat of compound, unprecedented events, is one reason scientists have been studying differences in risks associated with different levels of global warming.

The world is already about 1.2°C (2.2°F) warmer than preindustrial levels, and is on course for around 3°C (5.4°F) of warming through 2100, barring more stringent emissions cuts.

The second study, published today in the journal Climatic Change, uses projections from 21 computer models.

The researchers determined how much society's climate risk exposure, from effects such as water scarcity to heat stress, would differ by holding warming to 1.5°C, compared to more severe levels.

What they found: The study found that by limiting global warming to the most stringent Paris target, societal risks could be reduced by 85% compared to those associated with about 3.6°C (6.48°F) of warming.

Risks to people would be slashed by 10% to 44% globally if warming is limited to 1.5°C when compared to 2°C, it found.

Map showing how drought conditions in the Southwest affected temperatures in June 2021.

Map showing how Southwest drought in June 2021 contributed to unusually mild temperatures. (Johns Hopkins University from Osman et al., 2022 in Geophysical Research Letters.)

What they're saying: Rachel Warren, the study's lead author and a researcher at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said via an email exchange that it is not too late to prevent the most dangerous climate change outcomes.

"It is not the time to despair, it’s the time to participate in an exciting decade of transformation," Warren said.

The study on ties between the Southwestern megadrought and extreme heat found that unusually dry conditions boosted regional temperatures in June 2021 by up to 4°F. The greatest difference occurred in forested landscapes, rather than the open desert.

Zoom in: Compound events, in which one extreme feeds into another, are recipes for record-shattering outcomes.

State of play: According to co-author Benjamin Zaitchik of Johns Hopkins University, the drought-heat nexus was on display again this spring when New Mexico's largest fire on record forced thousands to evacuate.

"Cascading dry-hot extremes could be particularly pronounced in ecologically sensitive and fire-prone forests," Zaitchik said via email.

One extreme climate event can worsen others, studies show

Compound events, in which one extreme feeds into another, are recipes for record-shattering outcomes.

Two new studies shed light on the increasing risks the world faces from <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="global warming" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/09/world-could-breach-degree-key-threshold-next-5-years" data-vars-content-id="57dbfdc2-eb17-40b1-827c-fcce3a9a640a" data-vars-headline="One extreme climate event can worsen others, studies show" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/09/world-could-breach-degree-key-threshold-next-5-years" target="_self">global warming</a> and how such dangers can escalate in a cascading fashion.Why it matters: One <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="study" data-vars-click-url="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL099265" data-vars-content-id="57dbfdc2-eb17-40b1-827c-fcce3a9a640a" data-vars-headline="One extreme climate event can worsen others, studies show" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL099265" target="_blank">study</a> published this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters warns that certain extremes, such as drought, can exacerbate other climate hazards like heat waves.

The geopolitical fallout from Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is on display at the ongoing G7 meeting in Germany, where climate change is a key topic of conversation Monday.

State of play: In the bucolic Bavarian Alps, world leaders are wrestling with how to alleviate short-term worries about securing adequate energy supplies and lowering energy prices without tanking efforts to limit the severity of climate change.

There is a tug of war between how much G7 nations will emphasize burning more fossil fuels in the short-term with the transition to clean energy in the long run.

This stands in stark contrast to last year's G7 meeting in Cornwall, England, where climate change was a top priority heading into the Glasgow Climate Summit.

The question then was how far and fast some of the world's biggest emitters would go to slash emissions. Now these questions have taken on more of an "if" quality to them.

Why it matters: With the price of oil, gasoline and natural gas at painful levels in Europe and the U.S., the balance that leaders strike will help determine whether the Paris Agreement's targets are met.

Zoom in: Germany, which is hosting the G7 and is the most reliant on Russian energy imports, is reportedly seeking to delay a phaseout on funding overseas fossil fuel projects.

The U.S. is facing record-high gasoline prices, which is an albatross for President Biden and the Democrats heading into the midterm elections. Biden has called for oil companies to boost their domestic production and refining output. 

Germany has announced the restart of some of its shuttered coal-fired power plants, which use the most carbon-intensive fuel source, in order to help build up natural gas stocks for next winter. Other European countries are making similar moves.

The big picture: The U.S. and nations in the Middle East and possibly Africa are taking on new importance as natural gas exporters to Europe, with several new terminals for liquified natural gas already approved for the continent.

U.S. LNG exports to Europe have nearly tripled since March, according to a joint statement Monday from Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Climate activists and scientists have warned that building infrastructure that could be used for the next few decades could lock in enough emissions to nullify the Paris targets.

Yes, but: The imperative of providing relief from high energy prices now may cause the G7 to back away from implementing some of its most recent climate commitments.

These include the curtailment in overseas fossil fuel funding, an "eventual" coal phaseout as well as a push to generate electricity from a grid that is "predominantly decarbonized" by 2035.

Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, is participating in today's G7 meetings and urging countries to take steps aligned with a transition to clean energy, per IEA.

A potential price cap on Russian oil, which is also being discussed, might allow Europe to import Russian oil but at a predetermined, artificially low price. Proponents say this could lower gasoline prices while also reducing oil revenue going to Putin's regime.

But it could also boost demand for gasoline, leading to more fossil fuel consumption and higher emissions.

What they're saying: "We’re in a moment of massive disruption due to the invasion, and that’s either a big risk or it’s a big opening on the climate," Jennifer Morgan, Germany's ambassador at large for climate change, told the NYT.

What we're watching: How the G7 communique threads the needle between short and long-term priorities.

G7 leaders stare down energy and climate tug of war

Short-term pressures to cut energy costs may yield a less climate friendly G7 outcome.

Group of 7 (G7)

G7 leaders pose for a picture at a working dinner.

Oil companies

The geopolitical fallout from Russia&#x27;s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is on display at the ongoing G7 meeting in Germany, where climate change is a key topic of conversation Monday.State of play: In the bucolic Bavarian Alps, world leaders are wrestling with how to alleviate short-term worries about securing adequate energy supplies and lowering energy prices without tanking efforts to limit the severity of climate change.

June heat waves have now set monthly and all-time high-temperature records in the U.S., Europe, Asia and the Russian Arctic.

Why it matters: Increasingly severe, frequent and long-lasting heat waves are a clear manifestation of human-caused global warming.

By the numbers: Japan recorded its first June temperature of 104°F (40°C) or higher, and records continue to be set there. Officials are urging millions to conserve electricity as the heat continues, including in Tokyo.

104.4°F (40.2°C): The high temperature in Isesaki, Japan, about 50 miles northwest of Tokyo, on June 25. This set a national heat record for the month of June.

97.2°F (36.2°C): High temperature in Tokyo on June 26, tied the city's hottest temperature on record, according to weather historian Maximiliano Herrera.  

111.6°F (44.2°C): High temperature on Saturday in Lingshou in Hebei Province, China, was the all-time hottest temperature on record there. Two dozen other stations set all-time records too, Herrera tweeted.

Context: The latest heat waves come soon after other noteworthy events in the U.S., Europe and even the Russian Arctic. The city of Norilsk, Russia, had its hottest June day on the 23rd when the temperature hit 89.6°F (32°C).

All of this heat precedes July, typically summer's hottest month in the Northern Hemisphere.

More global heat records are broken, from the Arctic to Japan

June records and all-time high temperature records have been set.

Heat waves

Computer model map of forecast highs in Japan on June 28, 2022.

June heat waves have now set <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="monthly and all-time high-temperature records" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/energy-environment/climate-change" data-vars-content-id="ab7606e8-56bf-490f-8a20-9207558f5c35" data-vars-headline="More global heat records are broken, from the Arctic to Japan" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/energy-environment/climate-change" target="_self">monthly and all-time high-temperature records</a> in the U.S., Europe, Asia and the Russian Arctic.Why it matters: Increasingly severe, frequent and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="long-lasting heat waves" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/08/summer-weather-climate-change-heat-fires-hurricanes" data-vars-content-id="ab7606e8-56bf-490f-8a20-9207558f5c35" data-vars-headline="More global heat records are broken, from the Arctic to Japan" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/08/summer-weather-climate-change-heat-fires-hurricanes" target="_self">long-lasting heat waves</a> are a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="clear manifestation" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/23/climate-change-india-pakistan-heat-wave" data-vars-content-id="ab7606e8-56bf-490f-8a20-9207558f5c35" data-vars-headline="More global heat records are broken, from the Arctic to Japan" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/23/climate-change-india-pakistan-heat-wave" target="_self">clear manifestation</a> of human-caused global warming.

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Stories

One extreme climate event can worsen others, studies show

Despite global pledge, methane emissions are increasing

More global heat records are broken, from the Arctic to Japan

G7 leaders stare down energy and climate tug of war

The era of real-time climate change attribution is here

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