1 big thing: China-EV investigations

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2. Automakers get more leeway on EV tax credits

3. Big this week: BP, Biden, power study

Bonus: Biden's oil dilemma

4. BlackRock loses key climate official to Bezos fund

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1 big thing: The anti-ESG crusader

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2. Rivian's growing pains on display

January was the warmest on record for millions

3. January 2023 was the warmest on record for many

4. New in Congress: GOP Kerry probe and mineral plans

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5. The climate law charges up battery plants

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1 big thing: The House GOP's energy agenda is about supply chains

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2. Exclusive: Climate-fueled food threat for tribal nations

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3. Senior Kerry aide heads to renewables giant 

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4.🛢️Catch up fast on oil: Shell and Biden

5. Where lightning struck in 2022

Bonus: Where lightning activity defied the norm

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1 big thing: Exxon's climate pitch

2. Al Gore-backed fund stakes ABB's charging plan

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3. 🏃🏽‍♀️Catch up fast on policy: Europe and Alaska

4. The fallout from GM's big lithium deal

5. United's push for cleaner jet fuel

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Bonus: Aviation's long emissions ascent

6. One tech thing: Detecting CO2 from orbit

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1 big thing: Tension between Big Oil & clean tech

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2. Charted: Solar dominates U.S. power growth

3. BP slows transition away from oil and gas

4. UN's Guterres' possible clash at COP28

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National

A potent cold snap descending on New England Friday morning that's expected to last into early Sunday threatens to bring wind chills approaching record low levels.

Threat level: With wind chills forecast to reach -10°F in New York City, -33°F in Boston, and as low as -60°F in northern Maine on Saturday morning, the cold could be deadly for anyone caught outside for extended periods.

The big picture: The air mass across northern New England Friday night through the weekend will be the coldest in the Northern Hemisphere, with the possible exception of a portion of Siberia. 

Wind chill warnings are in effect for parts of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

As of 2:14pm, a wind chill of minus-50°F had already been observed at Frenchville Airport in northern Maine. By around 8pm, it had hit -60°F, per the National Weather Service.

The frigid winds blowing across the relatively mild waters of Lake Champlain has led to "steam devils" swirling above the lake. 

This is the coldest air to affect the region in decades.

The latest: The NWS office in Caribou, Maine, said it has received reports of "Quakes" in the area, which it said were "Frostquakes" or "Cryoseisms."

"Just like Earthquakes, [they] generate tremors, thundering sensations," the NWS said in a tweet Friday evening. "These are caused by sudden cracks in frozen soil or underground water when [it's] very cold."

Zoom in: The NWS warns that in such cold conditions, frostbite can occur on exposed skin in 10 minutes or less. 

Strong winds are accompanying the Arctic front, particularly in southern New England, where gusts up to 50 mph are anticipated into Friday afternoon and Friday night. At the same time, temperatures will be dropping all day, down into the single digits in Boston by evening, and below zero in northern New England.

Any power outages could knock out heat during frigid conditions. According to the NWS forecast office in Boston, temperatures there are likely to be comparable to a cold snap in February of 2016, when the city hit -9°F. But areas to the north will be far colder. 

In northern New England, winds may also howl out of the Northwest into Saturday, particularly in northern Maine.

Threat level: Boston Public Schools were closed Friday due to the cold, and authorities across New England have opened warming shelters for residents. The city has also declared a cold emergency.  

The cold outbreak comes courtesy of a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex, which is distinct from the polar vortex that is present at higher altitudes in the stratosphere. 

This region of extreme cold will rotate south from Hudson Bay, accompanied by a powerful cold front with snow squalls and strong winds beginning late Thursday night and Friday morning. 

Tweet from the National Weather Service warning of record cold weather in northern Maine.

New York City will miss the core of the cold but will still see low temperatures dip to 9°F on Saturday, with a high struggling to rise into the mid-20s. Wind chills will be below zero, however. 

Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. will also see unusually cold conditions Friday and Saturday. 

Blizzard warnings have been issued in northern Maine due to blowing snow on Friday and Saturday, as winds gusting to 40 miles per hour create what are known as "ground blizzard" conditions. 

The NWS reports that unofficial records of the coldest air temperatures aloft, as measured by weather balloons, could be broken.

"Most stations are forecast to see their lowest wind chills in decades or, in some cases, the lowest ever recorded," the NWS office in Caribou stated Thursday. 

Of note: Mount Washington in New Hampshire hit a wind chill of -107°F on Friday evening — its coldest on record and likely the coldest on record for any station in the U.S.

Forecasters had sought to discourage wintertime adventurers from attempting to hike in these conditions, warning of the "exponential" risk of hypothermia and frostbite.

What's next: Fortunately, the frigid air intrusion into New England will be short-lived as temperatures are forecast to moderate by Monday. 

Editor's note: This article has been updated with additional details throughout.

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The coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is invading New England

The cold snap, courtesy of the tropospheric polar vortex, may send wind chills plunging to minus-60°F.

Computer model projection showing temperature departures from average on Feb. 4, 2023. 

Computer model projection showing temperature departures from average across New England on Saturday morning. Source: Weatherbell.com

extreme weather

Extreme weather

A potent <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="cold snap" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/science/extreme-weather" data-vars-content-id="61286c3f-33db-4ad9-b202-66892762bbb3" data-vars-headline="The coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is invading New England" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/science/extreme-weather" target="_self">cold snap</a> descending on New England Friday morning that&#x27;s expected to last into early Sunday threatens to bring wind chills approaching record low levels.Threat level: With wind chills forecast to reach -10°F in New York City, -33°F in Boston, and as low as -60°F in northern Maine on Saturday morning, the cold could be deadly for anyone caught outside for extended periods.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

Data: Chris Vagasky, National Lightning Safety Council; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Florida took the top prize for the most lightning flashes last year, and the Southwest experienced significantly more lightning than usual, according to data from Vaisala, which operates a national lightning detection network.

Why it matters: In a warming world, the total amount of lightning is expected to increase. Shifts in lightning hot spots can provide clues to major storm events and how storm corridors are changing over time.

Details: Florida's large quantity of lightning partly reflects Hurricane Ian's devastating landfall in late September.

Meanwhile, last year saw an uptick in lightning compared to the average across the Southwest, which reflects an active monsoon season. Strikes across the country's northern tier were also plentiful, revealing the prevailing storm track.

Mapped: 2022's lightning strikes

Florida saw the most overall lightning strikes.

Data graphics

Florida took the top prize for the most lightning flashes last year, and the Southwest experienced significantly more lightning than usual, according to data from Vaisala, which operates a national lightning detection network.Why it matters: In a warming world, the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="total amount of lightning is expected to increase" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/30432222.38/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc2NpZW5jZS5vcmcvZG9pLzEwLjExMjYvc2NpZW5jZS4xMjU5MTAwP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1zZW5kdG9fbmV3c2xldHRlcnRlc3RfcG9saXRpY3NfcG9saWN5JnN0cmVhbT10b3A/61153b33f711de3b0d90b96aBd3727549" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/30432222.38/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc2NpZW5jZS5vcmcvZG9pLzEwLjExMjYvc2NpZW5jZS4xMjU5MTAwP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1zZW5kdG9fbmV3c2xldHRlcnRlc3RfcG9saXRpY3NfcG9saWN5JnN0cmVhbT10b3A/61153b33f711de3b0d90b96aBd3727549" target="_blank">total amount of lightning is expected to increase</a>. Shifts in lightning hot spots can provide clues to major storm events and how storm corridors are changing over time.

Extreme cold broke longstanding records Friday into Saturday as the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S. continues dealing with temperatures in the single or negative digits, along with gusty winds. 

Driving the news: The life-threatening cold is impacting millions living in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Boston, for example, saw its coldest low temperature reading in decades.

The latest: The high winds on Friday caused a tree branch to fall on a vehicle in Winstead, Connecticut, and kill an infant, NBC reports, citing the Hampden district attorney’s office.

A 23-year-old woman was driving the vehicle and was taken to the hospital with serious injuries. 

Threat level: Extreme temperatures are forecast to remain into Saturday afternoon for much of the region. In Maine, windchill warnings will remain in effect until 1am Sunday.  

Forecasts from the National Weather Service warned of "dangerously cold windchills" ranging between -25°F to -65°F below zero. 

On the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire, a windchill of minus-108°F and an actual temperature of minus-47°F were reported on Friday night. 

The minus-108°F is the lowest windchill on record in the U.S. since the current windchill scale began to be used about two decades ago.

The cold and high winds knocked out power to several thousand people in New England overnight Friday, and there were reports of frost quakes and the sounds of trees snapping as moisture abruptly froze and expanded. 

By the numbers: Boston hit minus-10°F on Saturday morning, the coldest temperature in the city since 1957. According to Fox Weather, a negative 39-degree windchill was recorded earlier in the morning. This is the coldest windchill recorded in Boston since at least 1944.

NWS Boston called the polar vortex "a historic arctic outbreak for the modern era. This is about as cold as it will get in southern New England."

In eastern Maine, a minus-62°F windchill was reported in Hancock County's Cadillac Mountain to the National Weather Service. In Aroostook County, a -61°F windchill was also recorded on Saturday morning. 

New York's Central Park bottomed out at 3°F, and cold records were set at La Guardia and JFK airports as well as Bridgeport, Connecticut.

What's next: The cold snap comes courtesy of a lobe of the polar vortex that had been located over Hudson Bay, Canada. It is only making a brief visit to New England, however. 

The coldest air is currently situated above northern Maine. A blizzard warning is in effect for Northern Penobscot and Southeast Aroostook counties until this evening for blowing snow lowering visibility to near zero at times.

Temperatures for most of the Northeast region will warm into the 10s and 20s throughout Saturday. Most of Maine and portions of northern New Hampshire will remain bitterly cold until the vortex moves off to the northeast on Sunday.

Context: Human-caused climate change is making extreme cold more rare across much of the U.S. and other parts of the Northern Hemisphere. In fact, the coldest months are warming faster than the warmest months in most states.

A new analysis from Climate Central finds that 204 U.S. weather stations have seen a marked decline in the annual number of nights below 32°F since 1970.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details throughout.

Arctic outbreak shatters records in Northeast, including -108°F wind chill

On Mount Washington, N.H., a wind chill of -108°F and an actual temperature of -47°F were reported on Friday night.

Visible satellite image of the Northeastern U.S. amid freezing temperatures and below-zero windchills on Feb. 4. Credit: NOAA

Map of temperature anomalies on Saturday showing the frigid cold air over New England.

Climate change

Extreme cold broke longstanding records Friday into Saturday as the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S. continues dealing with temperatures in the single or negative digits, along with gusty winds. Driving the news: The life-threatening cold is impacting millions living in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Boston, for example, saw its coldest low temperature reading in decades.

Big oil and climate tech startups are sparring over who is best positioned to lead the low-carbon transition.

State of play: To hear CEOs like Exxon’s Darren Woods tell it, their companies are ideally equipped to implement large-scale, low carbon infrastructure, such as carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and hydrogen production and distribution. 

Meanwhile, clean energy startups maintain they are already poised to lead decarbonization efforts. 

Why it matters: The vision that ultimately prevails in the real world will determine whether net zero emissions goals are met, and therefore how much the planet will warm compared to preindustrial levels. 

The big picture: Woods recently downplayed the role that climate tech startups may play in the energy transition. In an earnings call last week, he told analysts regarding Exxon’s “low carbon solutions” division: "I think we're very well positioned there. This is not a game for startups," he said.

"These are large scale projects that require the kind of project expertise that we have, require the kind of size and balance sheet capacity that we have, require the technology and operating experience that we have," Woods said.

Exxon plans to invest $17 billion in low carbon solutions through 2027.

The other side: These comments have landed with a thud among the broad community of climate tech funders, who say they miss the billions in investments coming into the sector and rapid deployment of renewables and other technologies. 

Flashback: Woods’ comments echoed those of then-Shell CEO Ben van Beurden, who in 2021 also minimized clean tech startups’ role in an interview with Axios. 

Between the lines: In the view of Exxon and Shell, the giant companies are best equipped to deploy the most complex low and zero carbon solutions, such as CCS, hydrogen and large-scale biofuels, at the commercial scale. 

This is because they have the advantage when it comes to engineering skills, cash and geological experience, among other factors.  

The intrigue: Climate tech funders see Woods’ vision as myopic. 

In 2022, $70 billion went to climate tech venture funding, demonstrating the sector’s momentum, said Dawn Lippert, CEO of Elemental Excelerator, a program to help early-stage climate startups get up and running, 

That, plus the $1 trillion investment in low-carbon power last year, vastly outweighs what Exxon plans to invest in the energy transition on an annual basis, she told Axios in an interview.

“They're just dwarfed by what's actually happening in the market and attempting to kind of minimize startups,” she said of Exxon in particular.

Zoom in: Lippert says Exxon and Shell’s emphasis on CCS and hydrogen indicate they may be placing the wrong clean energy bets.

“Those actually aren't the sectors that we see being the biggest in driving climate technology,” Lippert said. 

She pointed to International Energy Agency numbers showing renewables, electric grid and storage now make up more than 80% of total power sector investments. 

Our thought bubble: There is an irony in fossil fuel companies seeking to claim the climate action mantle, given that their industry is responsible for most of the planet-warming greenhouse gases in the first place.

The bottom line: Andrew Beebe, managing director at Obvious Ventures, told Axios that history shows startups play a leading role when it comes to deploying clean technologies. 

There is a role for both major incumbent companies and new ventures in advancing the clean energy economy, Beebe said. “This is an all hands on deck moment." 

Big oil stirs up a battle over leading the clean tech arms race

The dueling narratives points to key tensions in the drive to lead the energy transition.

Energy

A Volkswagen e-Golf charges at a electric vehicle (EV) charger in California

Big oil and climate tech startups are sparring over who is best positioned to lead the low-carbon transition.State of play: To hear CEOs like Exxon’s Darren Woods tell it, their companies are ideally equipped to implement large-scale, low carbon infrastructure, such as carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and hydrogen production and distribution.

Data: Southeast Regional Climate Center; Note: Between 37 and 156 years of data are available per station; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

January featured what meteorologists referred to as a "blowtorch" pattern in the East, with consistently milder than average weather conditions and barely any snow. 

By the numbers: Most cities, particularly those east of the Mississippi River, saw a top 15 warmest January. 

In New York City, it was the warmest January on record, with an average temperature of 43.5°F — a whopping 10°F above normal. Every day of the month was above average there.

In a sign of the warmth, New York actually saw more lightning strikes than it did inches of snow during the month.

Boston saw its fifth-warmest such month, Washington its third and Philadelphia second. 

Why it matters: Climate change raises the odds of a milder than average January, as the coldest months are warming the fastest in many parts of the U.S. 

A new analysis from Climate Central finds that 204 U.S. weather stations have seen a marked decline in the annual number of nights below 32°F since 1970. 

The big picture: In addition to climate change, other factors worked to yield such an unusually warm month. Waves of atmospheric river storms slammed California, bringing relatively mild Pacific air across the Lower 48 states. 

An area of high pressure across the East also directed storms northward across the Midwest and Great Lakes, dragging mild air up the East Coast. 

What's next: Despite a short-lived, fierce Arctic blast in New England, February is forecast to be another milder than average month in the East.

In New York City, the month was a whopping 10°F above average.

January featured what meteorologists referred to as a &quot;blowtorch&quot; pattern in the East, with consistently milder than average weather conditions and barely any snow. By the numbers: Most cities, particularly those east of the Mississippi River, saw a top 15 warmest January.

Andrew Freedman

Stories

Big oil stirs up a battle over leading the clean tech arms race

Mapped: 2022's lightning strikes

Arctic outbreak shatters records in Northeast, including -108°F wind chill

The coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is invading New England

January was the warmest on record for millions

Newsletter editions

⚔️ Clean tech tussle

🔋Rising China tensions

Battling ESG 🗡️

🔎GOP energy agenda

🛢️Exxon's climate case