Gamifying tragedy is the attention economy's dark side
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Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
New prediction market tools and viral videos are creating a world where tragedy is increasingly being amplified and gamified.
Why it matters: In an attention economy that rewards shock and extremes, everything has become a reality show.
Driving the news: In a Forbes story about a Louisiana man killing eight children over the weekend, a ForbesPredict box asked readers to predict whether or not Congress would pass new gun safety laws this year.
- 404 Media, which wrote about the prediction box, called it "another sign that the depravity economy has no bottom."
- The feature gives readers a daily login bonus of 800 virtual tokens to make predictions on news topics. No real money is exchanged.
- A Forbes spokesperson noted ForbesPredict is in beta and that the article was viewed by 3% of its audience.
- "We have established guidelines to prevent markets from appearing on certain topics, and this market was removed for not meeting those standards," the spokesperson said. "As we continue to refine and learn on ForbesPredict, we will adapt our controls with stricter checks and safeguards."
Zoom out: The episode renews scrutiny over prediction market traders profiting off war and tragedy.
- It's a consequence of prediction markets bringing trading activity to entirely new fields beyond whether a stock price goes up or down, or what the final score might be in sports.
- Traders have bet on whether Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be in U.S. custody by Jan. 31 and whether Nancy Guthrie's kidnapper would be arrested by Feb. 28.
- Betting on developments in the Iran war has also raised concerns about incentivizing situations that already threaten lives and global stability.
What they're saying: Polymarket posted on some pages a note defending trading on current events in the Middle East.
- "The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today," it said.
- "After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not."
Between the lines: News companies, including CNN, Time, Dow Jones and CNBC, have struck partnerships with prediction markets in efforts to boost audience engagement while opening a new line of revenue.
- Many frame the announcements as a way to provide readers with more ways of analyzing the news, drawing comparisons to polling data.
Reality check: Most Americans view prediction markets as more similar to gambling than traditional investing, Axios' Nathan Bomey writes, citing a recent poll by Ipsos and the American Institute for Boys and Men.
The big picture: Tragedy and struggle have long inspired entertainment, but new platforms make it easier to exploit current events for financial gain or entertainment, rather than cast a critical or artistic eye on the past.
- Injury-related prop bets have become the norm in online sports gambling.
- Thailand's annual military draft lottery and recruitment process, which dates back decades, is gaining newfound attention as clips of young men fainting or breaking down as they learn of their fate go viral on TikTok.
- True crime fandom is rising as online sleuths look to solve real-time mysteries, often turning ongoing investigations into public spectacles and misidentifying innocent people as perpetrators.
Editor's note: This story was updated to clarify ForbesPredict uses virtual tokens.
