Texas warning signs: 4 takeaways from the first primaries of 2026
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An attendee wears a "Talarico For Texas" shirt during a Texas primary election night event. Photo: Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Voters are on the verge of sending multiple House incumbents packing but gave four-term Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) hope that he can defeat Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a runoff in May.
Why it matters: The GOP's worst nightmare, in which Paxton led Cornyn or even defeated him outright Tuesday in the first primary elections of the 2026 midterms, didn't happen.
- National Republicans are concerned that Paxton, a conservative firebrand, could lose in the general election — or at least force them to spend money on a red state.
- Texas' Democratic Senate primary has its own controversy: Rep. Jasmine Crockett claimed voters were "disenfranchised" and vowed to sue over confusion on polling places in Dallas County. She trailed state Rep. James Talarico by more than 100,000 votes as of early Wednesday morning.
4 takeaways
1) The most expensive primary ever gets an encore: Cornyn showed surprise strength, setting up 2+ months of an expensive, nasty primary race before a May 26 runoff against Paxton.
- Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) finished a distant third.
- Now Cornyn and Paxton will compete for President Trump's endorsement — a priceless prize in a primary that has already cost the Republican Party close to $100 million.
2) Populist seminarian leads anti-Trump brawler: Crockett highlighted Trump's insults of her and boasted she "drives the president crazy." Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, talked about winning over Trump voters and zeroed in on promises like standing up to billionaires and taking on Big Pharma.
- Former Vice President Harris, eyeing a 2028 White House run, recorded a robocall for Crockett calling her a "fighter." It wasn't enough to push Crockett over the finish line.
- Talarico and his allies outspent Crockett and her supporters $25 million to $5 million on ads, according to AdImpact.
3) Warning signs for incumbents, older reps: Texas redistricting contributed to GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw's loss to state Rep. Steve Toth.
- It complicated life for Democratic Rep. Al Green, 78, whose former district was turned into a GOP safe seat. That forced him to run in the neighboring 18th, where a runoff looks possible against Democratic Rep. Christian Menefee, 37.
- A runoff also looks likely for Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas), who trails former Rep. Colin Allred by double digits. Allred is trying to reclaim his old seat after a failed Senate bid.
- In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee, 69, is narrowly leading county commissioner Nida Allam, 32, in a race that is still too close to call.
4) Huge Latino voter surge for Democrats: In heavily Hispanic counties along the Rio Grande Valley, Democratic turnout was up big.
- In Texas' 34th district, which Trump won 52%-48% in 2024, roughly twice as many voters participated in the Democratic primary compared to the Republican primary.
