GOP insiders fretting over Texas Senate primary
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From left, Democrat James Talarico, Republican Ken Paxton, Republican Sen. John Cornyn and Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Photos: Joel Angel Juarez/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Talarico), Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images (Paxston), Mark Felix/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Cornyn), Aaron Schwartz/Getty Images (Crockett)
GOP operatives tell Axios they're worried that their worst possible scenario is unfolding in the Texas Senate primaries.
Why it matters: Sen. John Cornyn's seat has long been a virtual lock for the GOP. But competitive races in both parties' primaries Tuesday — and the national headwinds facing Republicans — have blown up all assumptions.
Zoom out: Top Republican campaign operatives believe James Talarico, a state House member and seminary student, has a slight edge over his Democratic rival, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, heading into Tuesday.
- Republicans widely believe Talarico and his "progressive Christian" campaign pitch would be a tougher general election opponent than Crockett, a liberal who's drawn national attention with her sharp criticism of the Trump administration.
At the same time, GOP strategists say Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — a MAGA loyalist they regard as a weaker November candidate than Cornyn — has the advantage over the senator on Tuesday, if recent polls are right.
- Paxton and Cornyn are expected to be the top two vote-getters in the crowded Republican primary, and would face each other in a May 26 runoff if neither gets a majority of the GOP vote Tuesday.
- "A Paxton vs. Talarico match in November would be unnecessarily competitive and costly" for Republicans when they're facing tight races nationwide that could cost them control of the House and Senate, one GOP operative told Axios.
Reality check: No one's really sure what's going to happen Tuesday, particularly on the Democratic side.
- Polls in the Talarico-Crockett race have been all over the place, with several showing Crockett leading but Talarico closing fast and now ahead in some surveys.
Zoom in: National GOP groups hoping for a Cornyn vs. Crockett general election have spent tens of millions of dollars to try to defeat the scandal-plagued Paxton.
- Paxton has faced allegations that he abused his office and engaged in infidelity.
The intrigue: Republican groups also have quietly tried to boost Crockett — including by working behind the scenes to nudge her into the Senate race.
- Talarico has drawn millions in donations from across the country thanks to frequent appearances in national media, including a controversial interview on Stephen Colbert's TV show. Those donations have fueled a robust ad campaign across Texas, as he's outspent Crockett.
Yes, but: Some recent polling — including surveys done by the University of Texas and University of Houston — have shown Crockett with the lead.
- Crockett, who is Black, has said that suggestions she couldn't win a statewide election in Texas are rooted in racism.
- On Friday she won a surprise endorsement from former Vice President Harris.
What's next: Republicans are watching to see whether Trump will endorse Cornyn, which would give the four-term senator a big boost.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has been lobbying the president to back Cornyn.
- Trump declined to make an endorsement during a visit to Corpus Christi, Texas, on Friday, where he lavished praise on Cornyn and Paxton. "They're both great people," he said.
Cornyn's ability to get Trump's support — and additional money from national Republican groups — could depend on how close to Paxton he finishes on Tuesday.
- Cornyn has received extensive support from the Senate Leadership Fund, a Thune-backed super PAC.
- But a person familiar with the group's plans cautioned: "SLF will continue to spend" for Cornyn — "if it's clear there is a path to victory."
