Scoop: Saudi defense minister says Trump not bombing Iran would embolden regime
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Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman meets Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran last April. Photo: Iranian Leader Press Office/Handout/Getty
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman (KBS) said in a private briefing on Friday in Washington that if President Trump doesn't follow through on his threats against Iran, the regime will end up stronger, four sources in the room tell Axios.
Why it matters: This is a reversal from the public Saudi talking points cautioning against escalation and from the deep concern Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) expressed to Trump three weeks ago. That warning was one reason Trump decided to delay a strike.
Catch up quick: KBS, the crown prince's younger brother and closest confidant, was visiting Washington for meetings on Iran as the region braces for U.S. military action, and a response Tehran has vowed would be "unprecedented" in scope.
- Trump has ordered a massive U.S. military buildup in the Gulf, though White House officials insist he hasn't made a final decision and is still willing to explore diplomacy.
- At the moment, there are no serious direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. officials say Tehran doesn't seem interested in a deal based on the maximalist U.S. terms.
- "Iran always wants to make a deal. But what kind of deal do you want to make is the problem. What kind of deal Iran wants to make and what kind of deal the U.S. accepts? That's a very good question, and we don't see it coming together at this point," a Gulf official said.
Driving the news: KBS held a lengthy meeting at the White House on Thursday with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Dan Caine.
- The primary focus was on the possibility of a U.S. strike in Iran, according to a source with knowledge.
Between the lines: Saudi Arabia's public posture has been very cautious. MBS told Iran's president in a call on Wednesday that the kingdom would not allow the U.S. to use its airspace for an attack on Iran.
- The Saudis said in a statement that they respect Iran's sovereignty and seek a diplomatic solution.
Behind the scenes: KBS was less restrained in an hour-long meeting on Friday with around 15 think tank experts on the Middle East and representatives from five Jewish organizations.
- According to the sources, he said he thought Trump would have to take military action after threatening it for weeks, but would also have to try to mitigate the risks of regional escalation.
- "At this point, if this doesn't happen, it will only embolden the regime," KBS said, according to the sources in the room.
- Two sources said they understood KBS to be reflecting the message he'd conveyed at the White House. However, he also said he left that meeting without a clear idea of what the Trump administration's strategy or intentions were on Iran.
The intrigue: Just three weeks ago, the Saudis were practically begging the U.S. not to bomb Iran and warning of the risk of regional war, U.S. officials say.
- One reason for the shift could be that the Saudis have determined Trump has decided to strike, and don't want to be seen as opposing the move.
Zoom out: Three sources in the room said KBS insisted Saudi Arabia was not pivoting farther away from Israel, or toward the Muslim Brotherhood.
- He also rejected concerns attendees raised about a rise in anti-Israel sentiment in the Saudi press and social media.
- "He said several times that it was nonsense. The more he said it the less reassuring it sounded," one participant said.
