Why the Putin-Zelensky summit Trump wants will be hard to pull off

Driving the news: Press secretary Karoline Leavitt declared Wednesday that Putin had agreed to move to the "next phase" of the peace process — a bilateral meeting with Zelensky. Trump wants that meeting to take place by the end of August, ideally much sooner.

• But Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sang a very different tune on Wednesday. Any presidential summit should be preceded by a "step by step" process of lower-level talks, he told state media.
• That mirrors Moscow's previous position that the leaders could meet to sign an agreement, but not open negotiations for one.
• Right now, the parties are very far apart on the key issues of security guarantees and territorial concessions. Even if they do meet, the swift peace deal Trump is hoping for appears unlikely.

Why Putin is reluctant to meet Zelensky

Putin started this war seeking regime change in Kyiv, and has conducted a string of assassination attempts on Zelensky in years since, according to Ukraine's security services.

• Putin has stopped talking so much about "denazification" as a war aim, but he might be reluctant to show Ukraine or Zelensky personally the respect of sitting down as equals.

The intrigue: Many European and Ukrainian officials also suspect that Putin is playing for time in Trump's peace process, rather than actively seeking a deal.

• Agreeing in principle to meet Zelensky but not rushing to get it on the calendar might therefore make sense from his perspective.

What will the format be

Trump repeatedly said he expected to attend the meeting with Putin and Zelensky if both leaders wanted him there.

• Zelensky said publicly that he did want Trump at the summit.
• But Trump changed his tune on Tuesday after a call with Putin, stating that there should be a Putin-Zelensky meeting first followed by a trilateral "if necessary."
• Leavitt wouldn't say why Trump changed his mind about the format.

Between the lines: A meeting with Zelensky might be easier for Putin to blow off, or end inconclusively, than one involving the president of the United States.

Sticking point No. 1: Security guarantees

Kyiv is adamant that it will need some type of security guarantees from its allies in order to prevent a renewed Russian invasion after the war ends.

• Senior officials from the U.S. and several European countries are planning to work together in the coming days to hammer out a detailed proposal.

• Trump said Tuesday that there would be no U.S. troops on the ground, but American air power could be involved.

The other side: Putin expressed openness in principle to security guarantees for Ukraine during his summit with Trump last week, Axios previously reported.

• But Russia's Foreign Ministry said Monday that it "categorically" rejects the possibility of "a military contingent with the participation of NATO countries" inside Ukraine.

Sticking point No. 2: Territory

Putin wants Ukraine to withdraw entirely from two of its eastern regions (Donetsk and Luhansk) and freeze the battle lines in two more (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia), according to sources familiar with Putin's positions during the Alaska summit.

• That would require Zelensky to hand over a vast swathe of land in Donetsk, much of it heavily fortified — a proposal he's almost certain to reject.
• Zelensky has said he's prepared to discuss issues of territorial control if Putin agrees to meet. But he's also ruled out ceding territory outright.

What to watch: The White House has raised the idea of "land swaps," which could result in some territory remaining internationally recognized as Ukraine while being de facto controlled by Russia. That would be a very hard concession for Zelensky to make.

The bottom line: Getting to the table is the easy part, and even that will be difficult.

Go deeper: Next steps on security guarantees