Rubio to lead Ukraine security guarantees talks, with Trump promising air support
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Zelensky, Trump and Rubio on Monday in the Oval Office. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Senior officials from the U.S., Ukraine and several European countries are expected to work in the coming days on a detailed proposal for security guarantees for Ukraine, likely involving U.S. air power, two sources with knowledge of the discussions tell Axios.
Why it matters: U.S. and European security guarantees are a key Ukrainian demand. After months of refusing to discuss the issue, President Trump has come around to the idea of U.S. involvement in such a scheme.
- In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, Trump stressed there will be no U.S. boots on the ground but said he is open to providing American military air support to any European military forces stationed in Ukraine.
- Trump also said he thought Russian President Vladimir Putin would accept U.S.-European security guarantees for Ukraine, "but we will know in the next few weeks." The Kremlin has long opposed any such scheme on Ukrainian territory.
The other side: As security guarantees were being discussed at the White House, the Russian Foreign Ministry said it "categorically" rejects the possibility of "a military contingent with the participation of NATO countries" inside Ukraine.
- Putin said during his summit with Trump that he was willing to discuss the principle of security guarantees, a source told Axios, but he mentioned China as one of the potential guarantors.
Behind the scenes: Security guarantees were a key topic in Trump's meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and seven other European leaders on Monday at the White House.
- "Trump and Zelensky spoke in general terms about what was needed regarding security guarantees but didn't go into specifics," a Ukrainian official said.
- Trump agreed with the European leaders to work together on "Article 5-like" security guarantees, but when it came to a U.S. role, he was "not precise," a European official said.
- NATO's Article 5 commits the alliance to mutually defend a member who comes under attack.
What he's saying: Trump told Fox News that Ukraine won't be part of NATO, but stressed that European countries are willing to have boots on the ground outside the NATO framework.
- Trump said he's ready to give U.S. security assurances to Ukraine without committing U.S. troops. "We will help by air," Trump said.
What's next: Two sources with knowledge of the issue said a U.S.-European-Ukrainian commission was formed to draft a proposal for security guarantees.
- The commission is headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with national security advisers from Ukraine and European countries also participating in the discussions.
- "In the coming days, everyone is going to be working from sunrise till dark on the security guarantees. Maybe by the end of the week we will have some clear architecture," a Ukrainian official said.
The big picture: While a European security force on Ukrainian soil might be the toughest Ukrainian demand for Putin to accept, territorial concessions are likely the most difficult issue for Zelensky to navigate.
- During his meeting with Trump, Zelensky said he's willing to discuss territorial issues, but stressed that they needed to be negotiated between him and Putin, a Ukrainian official said. The official claimed Trump agreed.
- When Trump called Putin on Monday evening, he told the Russian president he will have to meet directly with Zelensky to discuss his territorial demands and urged him to be "realistic."
What we're watching: There is still no date or location for such a meeting.
- Trump and the European leaders agreed it needs to happen by the end of August, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday that full preparations would have to be made at working levels before the leaders could sit down together.
