Scoop: Trump admin game-planning for potential North Korea talks

State of play: North Korea is relatively low on Trump's priority list for now, but the world's newest nuclear power rarely stays off the international agenda for long.

• "We are convening agencies to understand where the north Koreans are today. A lot has changed in the last four years. We are evaluating, diagnosing and talking about potential avenues, including engagement," the senior U.S. official said.
• The "closed-door discussions" involving think tank experts and current and former U.S. officials "suggest the Trump administration is sizing out different scenarios for another Trump-Kim meeting," said Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Trump's "many positive statements" about Kim over the past six months suggest he's interested in that path, Yeo added.
• A former senior U.S. official said members of the administration were doing some "initial planning," knowing that it might only take "one flowery letter" from Kim to catch Trump's attention, "then you're off to the races."

Behind the scenes: The Swedish ambassador to North Korea, who represents U.S. interests in the country, visited Washington last week for consultations with U.S. officials and experts

• One source familiar with the visit said it was mostly about taking the temperature in Washington on engagement with Pyongyang.
• Officials from the State Department and National Security Council have also taken part in multiple roundtable discussions with outside experts on North Korea.
• One of the topics raised in those closed-door meetings was who the North Korean interlocutors are likely to be if talks do start, one of the sources said.

The intrigue: Almost every North Korean official involved in diplomacy with the U.S. during the first Trump administration — including the two summits — appears to have been purged or forced to undergo reeducation.

• "The North Koreans don't seem to have named a new special envoy for U.S. diplomacy, and they haven't expressed interest in negotiations for a long time," says Jenny Town, director of the Korea program at the Stimson Center.
• "Their position has been less negative about the prospects for negotiations lately, although they haven't said anything positive either," she says.

Between the lines: The former senior U.S. official told Axios the regime's willingness to engage would depend on the nature of the conversation.

• While past talks have focused on denuclearization, Kim is unlikely to seriously entertain that idea at this point, the former official says. North Korea's status as a nuclear power has been enshrined in the country's constitution and in the Kim family lore.
• If the conversation were about arms control, recognizing North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, "they'll have those talks all day," the former official says.
• But that would greatly alarm South Korea and Japan, who might then be more inclined to pursue nuclear weapons themselves.

Reality check: Trump will also find it hard to generate the kind of leverage he had over Kim the first time around given North Korea's nuclear advances and stronger diplomatic position.

• Chinese pressure on Pyongyang played a crucial role in Trump 1.0, but Beijing has made clear its not interested in squeezing Kim again on Trump's behalf.
• Meanwhile, North Korea has deepened ties with its powerful friend in Moscow, particularly after sending troops to fight in Ukraine.

The bottom line: "We are in a much worse situation today," the senior U.S. official acknowledged, blaming the Biden administration for Kim's nuclear advances, though some also came on Trump's watch.