Trump's nuclear dilemma: "Greatest threat" is getting bigger
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
President Trump calls nuclear weapons the "greatest existential threat" humanity faces, but he may be ushering in a world of more nuclear powers and fewer nuclear guardrails.
Why it matters: Trump on Sunday reiterated his urgent hope to halt the nuclear spiral in which China, Russia and the U.S. are developing ever-more sophisticated tools to end life on Earth.
- He also revealed that he'd written to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expressing his desire for a new nuclear deal — while warning that without one, he'll have to take "the other option" to ensure Tehran never gets a nuke.
- Trump's first weeks back in office have been peppered with nuclear warnings, including his desire to avoid "World War III" over Ukraine.
The flipside: Trump's withdrawal of U.S. support for Kyiv has U.S. allies debating whether to develop their own nukes, rather than depend on Washington.
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Friday that his country would have to explore "opportunities related to nuclear weapons" due to the "profound change of American geopolitics."
- French President Emmanuel Macron also said last week that he would consult with European allies like Germany about including them under the French nuclear umbrella.
- Trump's ally-bashing has also turbocharged the debate in South Korea over whether a domestic nuclear program is needed to counter nuclear-armed North Korea.
Some experts fear a new era of nuclearization.
- "The belief that the United States has no interest in defending allies, which is the conclusion that allies are rapidly and rightly drawing, is very likely to cause proliferation," says James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
- "I think it's virtually inevitable they will explore their options, and there is a realistic prospect that some of those explorations turn into weapons programs," Acton says, emphasizing that likelihood for South Korea in particular.
Meanwhile, the last major U.S.-Russia arms control agreement, New START, is less than a year from expiration.
- That treaty can't be extended, and any new agreement that constrains the U.S. but not China is unlikely to pass muster in Washington.
- China, meanwhile, rejects arms control talks outright — at least until its rapidly advancing nuclear program reaches parity with the other major powers.
- A former senior U.S. official conceded to Axios that it's "difficult to conceive of" a scenario where Beijing comes to the table for the sort of trilateral talks Trump envisions.
"There's not a lot of carrots. You mostly offer them the stick," the official said.
- "The problem is that a lot of the available sticks they're already brandishing at the Chinese right now — tariffs and other things."
Key quote: "I think we're going into a period of time where we won't have any operative nuclear arms control agreements," the former official says.
- A National Security Council spokesperson did not provide a comment for this story.
Flashback: Trump made two dramatic moves in the nuclear arena in his first term — pulling out of the 2015 Iran deal, and holding two summits to try to convince North Korea's Kim Jong-un to denuclearize.
- Both Tehran and Pyongyang have made significant nuclear advances since then.
What to watch: Trump's letter to Khamenei and early comments on Kim suggest leader-to-leader nuclear diplomacy is back on the menu.
- But force of personality alone won't be enough to keep the world's "greatest threat" in check.
