Republicans favor Trump tariffs despite anticipated price hikes: poll
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Republicans overwhelmingly support President Trump's tariffs in spite of the higher costs they're likely to face as a result of them, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll out this week.
Why it matters: After promising to lower prices if elected, Trump's tariffs targeting the U.S.'s biggest trade partners will cost the average American household at least $830 per year, economists have warned.
- Trump eased some tariffs on the U.S.' North American neighbors with temporary carve-outs for the auto sector, an industry that relies on free trade with Canada and Mexico.
- The White House is also reportedly considering exemptions for some agricultural goods from the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Bloomberg reported.
Driving the news: Republicans expressed the strongest support for a 10% tariff on goods from China, with 78% approving of it. Trump has since increased the levy to 20%.
- Just 23% of Democrats and 42% of Independents said they supported a tariff on goods from China.
- The GOP support for 25% tariffs on Canada (57%) and Mexico (68%) was lower, but far outpaced the number of Democrats and Independents who approved of them.
Between the lines: Over half of Republican respondents (56%) acknowledged that increasing tariffs generally increases prices.
- 13% said they thought there would be no effect on prices, while 9% said tariffs would decrease prices and 22% weren't sure.
- 40% of Republicans said that mostly companies and people in the country exporting products would ultimately bear the cost of tariffs.
- Meanwhile, 39% agreed that mostly companies and people in the U.S. would bear the brunt, while 20% said they weren't sure.
The other side: Three-quarters of Democrats said U.S. companies and consumers would mostly feel the cost, with only 10% saying companies and people in the exporting country would.
- 82% of Democrats said that tariffs would increase prices.
State of play: Trump on the campaign trail floated tariffs as "the greatest thing ever invented" and cast them as an economic cure-all.
- Tariffs can raise revenues for imposing governments, but they can also hurt domestic companies and consumers.
- Soybean farmers are one such case study: They've yet to recover the market share in China lost during the Trump 1.0 trade war and now face renewed uncertainty.
Thought bubble, from Axios' Managing Editor for Business & Markets Ben Berkowitz: The results make clear most Americans simply don't believe Trump's long-lived argument that tariffs don't raise prices, and that it's the tariffed countries who really pay.
- Whether they support the tariffs or not may not be relevant in the end, if the mere belief that prices will rise is enough to keep eroding consumer sentiment and holding people back from making big purchases.
- That may be why Trump's language has shifted subtly in recent months, from prices will go down (campaign trail) to prices won't rise as fast (transition) to "a little disturbance" in prices (now).
Methodology: The poll of 1,638 U.S. adults was conducted on March 1-4 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7% percentage points.
Go deeper: New tariffs hit, but there's a $100 billion hole in the data
