Mar 4, 2025 - Business

How Trump's tariffs may affect everyday Americans

A choropleth map of the U.S. showing the estimated impact by state of President Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China based on January 2024-November 2024 trade data. Texas faces the biggest impact, at about $47 billion. Hawai’i would face the lowest, at about $50 million. — Data: Trade Partnership Worldwide; Note: Based on January-November 2024 trade data. Map: Alex Fitzpatrick/Axios

President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs Tuesday on America's largest trading partners, triggering a global trade war that promises to affect the wallets of everyday Americans.

Why it matters: After running — and winning — on a promise to curb inflation, Trump's trade war threatens to raise prices for everything from food and clothes to cars and computers.

Some estimates suggest just Tuesday's tariffs alone could cost the average U.S. household $830 a year — and that's before you factor in the cost of anticipated retaliatory tariffs from Canada, China and Mexico.
Already, the impacts are escalating — the map above, for example, was based on a 10% China tariff, which has now been raised to 20%.

Tariffs on the top U.S. import partners

A bar chart showing the share of total U.S. exports and imports by top trading partners from January to September 2024. Mexico leads exports at 16.4%, followed closely by Canada at 17.0%. In imports, Canada accounts for 12.8%, while China has a notable 13.3%. Other countries include Germany and Japan. — Note: Countries are arranged by share of total trade; Data: U.S. Census Bureau; Chart: Axios Visuals

Zoom out: More than 40% of all U.S. imports come from Mexico, Canada and China — over $1.3 trillion worth in 2024 alone, per Census data.

The tariffs will affect big-ticket items like machinery and cars, but also consumer staples — everything from beer (more than 80% of U.S. imports come from Mexico) to oats (almost all U.S. imports come from Canada).

Tariffs as a regressive tax

Bar chart displaying tariff rates on select consumer goods as of February 3, 2025. Categories include sweaters, underwear, beverages, and spoons with specific rates: Acrylic (32.0%), Women's polyester (15.6%), Infant formula (17.5%), Steel (14.0%), Cashmere (4.0%), Women's silk (2.1%), Champagne (2.0%), and Sterling silver (3.3%). — Data: Progressive Policy Institute analysis of U.S. International Trade Commission data; Note: Tariff rates may vary by country; Chart: Axios Visuals

Zoom in: Tariffs are generally regressive, in that they more heavily affect lower-income people who spend a greater share of their resources on goods, particularly necessities like food and fuel.

As data from the Progressive Policy Institute shows, even before Trump's new levies this week, the existing U.S. tariff system already charged much higher rates for low-cost products than their luxury counterparts.

The China trade deficit

An area chart showing U.S. imports from and exports to China between 1992 and 2024. Both imports and exports have grown significantly, reaching $436b and $142b, respectively, in 2024. The top import categories as of 2024 are electronics, nuclear reactors and textiles. The top export categories are minerals and chemicals, animal and vegetable products and electronics. — Data: USA Trade; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Between the lines: Tariffs, especially on China, do move the needle on trade a little, but over time it tends to rebound.

The trade deficit with China has been more than $200 billion for 20 years now, and Chinese retaliatory tariffs will offset some of the benefit of the new duties Trump assessed.

Fentanyl realities

A bar chart that illustrates total fentanyl seizures at U.S. borders from fiscal years 2022 to 2025. The Southwest border with Mexico recorded 67,382 pounds seized, while the Northern border with Canada saw only 70.04 pounds seized. — Data: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Chart: Axios Visuals

The intrigue: In assessing tariffs on Canada and Mexico in particular, Trump cited the flow of fentanyl across both borders.

Yes, but: As U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows, over the last 40 months, fentanyl volume that's trafficked through Mexico is almost 1,000x the amount coming through Canada.

In January 2025 alone, CBP stopped almost half a ton of fentanyl at the Mexican border — and about half an ounce at the Canadian border.

The next tariffs

A table that outlines Trump's tariff orders, detailing target countries and effective dates. Imports from Canada and Mexico are subject to a 25% tariff as of March 4. China's 10% tariff was doubled to 20% as of March 4. Steel and aluminum tariffs are set for March 12, while the rates for reciprocal tariffs (April 2), copper and lumber are TBD. — Data: Axios research; Note: The White House has not specified which of the above tariffs (if any) will be included in the reciprocal tariff order on April 2 ; Chart: Axios Visuals

What to watch: The tariffs are a long way from over — the White House has made clear more are coming, and they'll stack up on top of each other.

Steel and aluminum tariffs come in next week, which will particularly impact automakers and beverage companies, among others.
Reciprocal tariffs on April 2 could affect dozens of countries, with as-yet unknown impacts on almost everything the country imports.

Go deeper: Tariff worries, Trump cuts signal emerging economic growth risks

Editor's Note: This story has been updated with additional details on the tariff map.

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