NOAA cuts could ground some Hurricane Hunter flights

• The now-thinly staffed team of flight directors, engineers, scientists and mechanics means NOAA will struggle to maintain a 24-hour-a-day tempo of flying its modified Gulfstream jet and aging WP-3 research aircraft, said Josh Ripp, who was laid off as a flight engineer since he was a probationary employee.
• Ripp said the missing flights will translate into less accurate forecasts and greater risk for coastal residents who are used to having at least two to three days' warning of a hurricane's predicted landfall location.
• He told Axios in an interview that the agency is now either short one person or is at just the level of personnel needed to staff 24/7 flight operations, which has been the desired tempo during past seasons.

However, that assumes no one gets sick or has a family emergency and cannot crew a flight. NOAA, he said, is now "playing the odds that everyone there is going to be fine all season."

Zoom in: Two others associated with NOAA's hurricane research program confirmed the challenges the agency faces after the layoffs hit its Office of Marine and Aviation Operations in Lakeland, Fla.

• According to Andrew Hazelton, who was laid off from working on hurricane forecast models at the National Hurricane Center, the cuts may compromise forecast accuracy and ultimately cost lives.
• He said NOAA uses the information from the flights in two ways. One is to gauge the intensity and movement of a storm, since such data is immediately relayed to the Hurricane Center.
• The other is to use the specialized equipment — such as powerful, tail-mounted-Doppler radar — to gather data that's fed into hurricane forecast models to better anticipate a storm's movement and shifts in intensity.

Consistent NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane reconnaissance has helped lead to vast improvements in hurricane track forecasts in particular, with new gains made in intensity projections in recent years.

Between the lines: NOAA only has a minimum capacity of flight directors, positions that require years of training, according to one source familiar with staffing issues who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution if they are rehired.

• It missed out on gaining three who were in the hiring process when the Trump administration instituted a government-wide freeze, and then lost two to the layoffs, the source said.

• "This leaves the exact number for staffing four total WP-3 and G-IV crews," the source said. "It leaves no room for anyone to get sick or have a life event that precludes them from being able to fly."
• "It will, of course, also lead to burnout of the remaining flight directors," they said, noting that flight engineers are also at "critically low" levels of personnel.

Hazelton told Axios that NOAA is running the risk that a storm will approach the coast and that the agency won't be able to fly into and around it with its advanced capabilities.

• "I think that's a real risk that could happen if some of these moves aren't reversed," he said.

What they're saying: NOAA wouldn't comment specifically about the Hurricane Hunter staffing issue.

• "As per longstanding practice, we don't discuss internal personnel and management matters," the agency said in a statement to Axios.
• "NOAA remains dedicated to providing timely information, research and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience," the statement said. "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."

Go deeper:

DOGE moves to cancel NOAA leases on key weather buildings

Top weather, climate agency NOAA the latest layoff target

NOAA layoffs threaten weather, climate forecasts

DOGE plans for NOAA, FEMA could have big climate impacts