DOGE plans for NOAA, FEMA could have big climate impacts

Between the lines: NOAA's mission is broad and intricately linked with FEMA and state emergency management agencies.

• NOAA is responsible for flying into hurricanes to measure their strength and improve predictions.
• Its National Weather Service forecasts weather across the U.S. and its territories and collects the majority of ocean and atmospheric observations worldwide on a daily basis.
• The combination of Project 2025's prescription for NOAA, along with news reports of coming, steep staff cuts — so far unsubstantiated — has left the agency's staff demoralized.

The nomination of Neil Jacobs, a meteorologist specializing in computer modeling, to run NOAA has also been met with a mix of relief and anxiety, given that he was in charge during Trump 1.0 and the "Sharpiegate" scandal.

Zoom in: After scrutinizing NOAA, members of the Musk-led DOGE team have reportedly turned their attention to examining FEMA's programs and IT systems.

• On Tuesday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that "FEMA should be terminated."
• The disaster management agency, part of the Homeland Security Department, has been in the crosshairs since staff were accused of avoiding giving aid to Republicans in the wake of Hurricane Helene.
• "Where were the concerns for deadly consequences when FEMA directed employees not to help certain people in North Carolina — was that not deadly?" Harrison Fields, principal deputy press secretary at the White House, told Axios in response to concerns over potential cuts to these agencies.
• Erasing the agency would require congressional action. Trump envisions states taking the lead in responding to their own disasters.

"The people voted for major government reform. And that's what people are going to get," Musk said in an Oval Office appearance with Trump on Tuesday.

What they're saying: "Honestly, the next disaster to happen, you know, who are you calling?" Pete Gaynor, FEMA administrator during Trump's first term and currently an advisor to Bright Harbor, told Axios in an interview.

• Gaynor said there is widespread agreement that the agency needs reform in how it helps people recover from disasters, but he added that its preparedness and disaster response functions are in high demand and well-executed.
• "We need a national effort to reform FEMA," Gaynor said. "I don't think anyone is arguing with the president on that, even people at FEMA," he said.

• "But the disassembly, the abolishment of FEMA is not in the national interest."

Reality check: Most states lack the resources to respond on their own to major disasters — including conducting lengthy rebuilding projects.

• Red states could be hit the hardest. Texas, Louisiana and Florida received the most FEMA direct assistance since 2015, data shows.
• FEMA also funds programs aimed at reducing the risks from disasters and hardening infrastructure. Tens of millions in those grants go to red states annually, with additional money doled out to improve preparedness.

Catch up quick: As Axios scooped last week, DOGE has accessed IT systems at NOAA, one of the world's top weather and climate agencies.

• Project 2025, a roadmap of sorts for staffing the Trump administration and drafting policy, called for breaking up NOAA and assailed it for being part of a "climate change cabal."
• As Axios first reported, the administration has tasked NOAA with searching its existing grants for climate change-related keywords as part of an effort to be in line with Trump's executive orders.

Zoom out: Extreme precipitation events, heat waves and wildfires are all becoming more likely and severe because of a warming climate, forcing these agencies to maintain a grinding tempo.

• It's unclear how potentially reducing staffing at NOAA, or axing FEMA altogether, would improve early warnings, preparedness and response.