Milton storm track forecasts' accuracy draws praise

Zoom in: Milton, which made landfall Wednesday night in Siesta Key, Fla., as a Category 3 storm, was always predicted to end up coming ashore near Tampa Bay.

• This never wavered, despite typical uncertainties in track forecasts at long lead times. In fact, the NHC's track forecasts for Milton outperformed their typical average error rates for such storms, according to Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami.
• McNoldy said the overall weather pattern across the Gulf of Mexico was well predicted. That included a trough, or dip, in the jet stream that eventually dragged Milton to the northeast, across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic.
• "The track forecasts of the landfall location were exceptional," McNoldy told Axios. "I think we all wish they could always be that accurate for so long. It doesn't change the fate of the eventual impacts, but it certainly helps with preparation and evacuation."
• Statistics that McNoldy shared show that even at five days in advance, the average track error of NHC's forecast was only about 100 miles, significantly less than the average error for tropical cyclones at that range.

Between the lines: While NHC gets credit for an accurate track forecast overall, a wobble of the eye of just a few miles made the difference between a Tampa Bay storm surge disaster and a storm characterized by flooding rains and high winds.

• Even with the accurate forecast, NHC couldn't rule out a direct hit to Tampa Bay nearly until the eye began coming ashore.
• "Now that we know Milton's actual track, it's unreasonable to think NHC could have told us in advance in any uncertain terms whether Tampa Bay would get 10-15 feet of surge as forecast, or less than 2 feet as they did," said Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at WPLG Local 10 in Miami.
• "Milton was precariously close to driving in the former."

Between the lines: Unlike other storms in which computer models tend to waffle between various landfall locations, the most reliable models were in lockstep on the track throughout the storm's evolution.

• "I was struck all week by how consistent the reliable models were with Milton's landfall location," Lowry said.

Yes, but: While the track forecast itself was on point, Lowry said significant storm timing errors occurred even on the day of landfall.

• "The models really struggled with landfall timing, which we did see reflected in the forecast," he noted.
• Forecasts on Wednesday morning had the storm coming ashore at 2am ET on Thursday morning, about 6 hours behind the actual landfall timing, Lowry said.

The bottom line: Forecasts for Hurricane Milton, both regarding its track and intensity, are likely to be studied for years as meteorologists train on new tools and refine how to communicate uncertainty.