Two potential futures for Trump: The presidency or prison
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Former President Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on his 34 felony convictions three weeks after Election Day.
Why it matters: Winning the election is effectively Trump's get-out-of-jail-free card.
- His legal team largely succeeded in delaying his criminal trials until after the election. If he wins, those prosecutions will likely be over for good. But if he loses, he could find himself back in court.
What we're watching: Trump has vowed to fire special counsel Jack Smith "within two seconds" of taking office, wiping out the two federal cases against him on charges of election interference and mishandling of classified documents.
- And Justice Department policy prohibits the prosecution of a sitting president.
Zoom in: The most acute threat to Trump's freedom comes from Manhattan, where he was convicted in May on fraud charges for his hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels in 2016.
- On Nov. 12, a week after the election, Judge Juan Merchan will rule on Trump's motion to dismiss the conviction in light of the Supreme Court's ruling on presidential immunity.
- If that motion fails, Trump's lawyers will likely appeal — all the way up to the Supreme Court if they have to — delaying the sentencing even further.
But if sentencing proceeds on Nov. 26, Trump could face jail time.
- A N.Y. Times analysis found that more than a third of business fraud convictions in Manhattan over the past decade resulted in incarceration.
- Given Trump's advanced age and status as a first-time offender, experts say Merchan could opt for leniency as he weighs prison, probation or something less severe.
- But there are other aggravating factors: Trump has shown no remorse for his crimes, and he violated a gag order against commenting on witnesses, prosecutors, jurors and court officials 10 times during his trial.
What they're saying: "As mandated by the United States Supreme Court, this case, along with all the other Harris-Biden hoaxes, should be dismissed," Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement.
State of play: Here's where things stand in Trump's three other criminal cases.
- Georgia election interference: The sprawling racketeering case has been on hold since July, when an appeals court agreed to decide whether prosecutor Fani Willis should be removed for not disclosing a romantic relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade. Oral arguments are set for Dec. 5.
- Federal election interference: Smith's Jan. 6 charges are on hold while Judge Tanya Chutkan determines how much of the case can proceed in light of the Supreme Court's ruling on presidential immunity. The next filing deadline is Nov. 21.
- Classified documents: Smith's Florida-based case was dismissed by Trump-friendly Judge Aileen Cannon on the basis that his appointment as special counsel was unconstitutional. Smith has appealed the ruling, and the charges could be reinstated.
