Scoop: What Trump is being told
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Former President Trump arrives at a campaign rally in Albuquerque, N.M. today. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
A new internal memo by Tony Fabrizio, chief pollster for all three of Donald Trump's presidential campaigns, tells the former president he's in a radically better position than he was right before the 2020 election.
Why it matters: The memo reflects the exuberance that Trump staffers and allies exude in interviews and behind-the-scenes conversations. The optimistic framing could make it even more difficult for Trump followers to accept a loss as legitimate.
The memo, addressed to "TEAM TRUMP," has the subject line: "PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ON THE VERGE."
- Fabrizio draws on Real Clear Politics polling averages to argue that Trump's "position nationally and in every single Battleground State is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was 4 years ago."
- "I point this out NOT to stoke overconfidence or complacency, but to illustrate just how close this election is and that victory is within our reach," the pollster adds.
- "But the fact remains that we still have a great deal of work to do. While the analysis of early and absentee vote returns in each state [is] promising, we know that the bulk of President Trump voters will vote on Election Day."
Reality check: Polling is as tight as any presidential race ever, with the New York Times average showing Trump at 48% and Vice President Harris at 48%. The 538 average has Harris ahead by 1 point — well within polls' margins of error.
- This remains a 50-50 election, folks, with polling from all seven swing states falling within the margins of error.
- Fabrizio's comparison to 2020, when Trump entered Election Day behind in the polls, also could be read to suggest simply that Trump isn't obviously behind, and has a chance to win.
The big picture: Axios' Zachary Basu wrote earlier this week about MAGA world's hyper-confidence — "projecting an air of inevitability inconsistent with what polls portray as a coin-flip election."
- We've reported that many top Democrats fear they're blowing it. But many were reassured after Harris' closing-argument address this week on the Ellipse, just outside the White House.
Fabrizio concludes: "Over the next 5 days there will be a continual barrage of public polling and analysis — some positive and some negative. It is crucial we do not get distracted by the media noise and remain focused on our closing message, persuading the few remaining undecided voters and
turning out our base."
Go deeper: Read the memo.
