Biden advisers to visit Israel to try to seal a deal to end war in Lebanon
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Rescuers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli air strike on the village of Haret Saida, near Lebanon's southern city of Sidon, on Oct. 29, 2024. Photo: Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP via Getty Images
Two senior advisers to President Biden will arrive in Israel on Thursday to try to close a deal that would end the war in Lebanon and allow displaced civilians from both sides of the border to return to their homes, three sources with direct knowledge of the trip told Axios.
Why it matters: If Biden's senior advisers Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk strike a diplomatic deal between Israel and Hezbollah during their visit, it would significantly de-escalate the regional war in the Middle East for the first time since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel.
- Israeli and U.S. officials said they believe that after the blows Hezbollah has suffered in the past two months, including the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, it is finally willing to disconnect itself from Hamas in Gaza.
- A deal that would end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah could be achieved within a few weeks, Israeli and U.S. officials said.
Driving the news: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a meeting with several ministers and senior leaders of the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli intelligence services on Tuesday night to discuss the potential deal, Israeli officials said.
- Israeli officials said Biden adviser Amos Hochstein was waiting for Israeli leaders to decide about whether to move forward with the deal before he traveled to Israel.
- The fact that he and Biden adviser Brett McGurk are coming suggest Netanyahu is in favor of pursuing the deal, they said.
- The White House declined to comment.
"Senior U.S. officials are following up on a range of matters in the region and with Israeli counterparts," a senior U.S. official said.
- CIA director Bill Burns will be in Cairo on Thursday "to engage with Egyptian counterparts on bilateral matters as well as the process to secure the release of hostages," the official said.
- "CENTCOM Commander Gen. Erik Kurilla is traveling to the region to discuss regional defense and will visit Israel to engage with counterparts and U.S. personnel."
On Tuesday, Hezbollah announced it's leadership council appointed Naim Qassem to succeed Nasrallah.
- Qassem has been Nasrallah's deputy for 30 years but was more of an ideological figure than an executive leader. According to a report in Al-Arabiya, he was appointed now in order to focus on getting a ceasefire deal.
The big picture: Hochstein has been working for more than a year on a deal that could end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
- But for months Hezbollah refused to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon as long as Israeli attacks in Gaza continued.
- In recent weeks, after a series of Israeli military operations significantly weakened Hezbollah, the group started changing course.
Hochstein visited Beirut last week and got a positive response from Lebanese officials about the possibility of moving toward a ceasefire regardless of the war in Gaza.
- On the Israeli side, there have also been signs of more openness to ending the war in Lebanon.
- Israeli officials said the IDF is very close to ending its ground operation in the villages in southern Lebanon that are close to the border with Israel.
- The IDF has recommended to Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant that now would be a good time to work out a diplomatic solution to end the fighting with Hezbollah and avoid getting bogged down in a war in Lebanon, the officials said.
Behind the scenes: Israeli officials said the deal being discussed is based on re-implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended the 2006 war in Lebanon.
- The deal being considered envisions an announcement of a ceasefire that is followed by a 60-day transition period, the officials said.
- During this transition period, Hezbollah would move its heavy weapons north of the Litani River and away from the Israeli border. The Lebanese army would deploy about 8,000 troops along the border with Israel who would join UNIFIL peacekeepers there and the IDF forces would gradually withdraw to the Israeli side of the border.
Zoom in: Two weeks ago, Israel gave the U.S. a document with its conditions for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Lebanon, Axios reported.
- One Israeli demand is that the IDF be allowed to engage in "active enforcement" to ensure Hezbollah doesn't rearm and rebuild its military infrastructure in the areas of southern Lebanon that are close to the border.
- Israeli officials said that while this condition is not going to be part of the agreement with Lebanon, Israel wants a letter of assurances from the Biden administration that the U.S. would support this "active enforcement."
What to watch: Hochstein and McGurk are expected to meet with Netanyahu, Gallant and Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, Israeli officials said.
- Hochstein is expected to present a formal proposal to them for the ceasefire agreement, which he drafted after hearing both sides' positions, the officials said.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with comments from a senior U.S. official about U.S. officials traveling to the Middle East this week.
