Most Americans anticipate post-Election Day violence: Poll

• The specter of political violence has hung over much of the 2024 campaign due to the assassination attempts of former President Trump as well as his alleged role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
• Vice President Kamala Harris has sought to cast herself potential presidency as a fresh start from the rhetoric of violence that has shadowed the 2020 and 2024 election cycles.

The big picture: The poll found that 62% of Americans believe the likelihood of post-Election Day violence is "somewhat "or "very likely."

• That conviction was bipartisan — with 70% of Democrats and 59% of Republicans agreeing on the likelihood of violence.
• About half of Americans (51%) said they would support using the U.S. military to prevent Election Day unrest, though this view was more popular among Republicans (61%) than Democrats (51%).

Zoom in: Still Americans' belief in the election system is intact.

• Overall, 63% of Americans said they were "very confident" or "somewhat confident" that all votes would be accurately counted in the election.

• 77% of Americans said they are willing to accept the election results even if their preferred candidate loses.

State of play: Rising threats against lawmakers in the years since the Capitol riot have heightened fears about how such rhetoric can be actualized.

• Support for political violence has also been on the rise.
• Security measures have ramped up in Washington, D.C. in anticipation of possible unrest between Election Day and Inauguration Day.

Methodology: The poll surveyed 1,028 U.S. adult residents between Oct. 18-20, 2024, and has a margin of error of ±3.3 points.

Go deeper: Behind the Curtain: America plays with fire