Harris soars to record 6-point lead over Trump in post-debate poll
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Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris during a campaign rally in Charlotte, N.C., earlier this month. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Vice President Kamala Harris leapt to a six-point lead over former President Trump in the wake of last week's presidential debate, according to a Morning Consult poll published Tuesday.
Why it matters: Most polls before last Tuesday's debate that saw Harris rattle Trump on a range of topics had the pair locked in a virtual dead heat.
- "A majority of likely voters — including 1 in 5 Republicans — believe Harris won the debate, and performance appears to be crystalizing her national lead over the former president," said Eli Yokley, political analyst at Morning Consult, in an emailed statement.
Driving the news: Morning Consult pollsters surveyed 11,022 likely U.S. voters from Sept. 13-15 in the poll, which had an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
- Morning Consult notes that its survey showing support for Harris at 51% compared to 45% for Trump was a "new record" for the Democratic presidential nominee.
- "Her 51% of support among likely voters, which is also at a record high, is driven largely by her best figures to date among Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, liberals, women, 18- to 34-year-olds and millennials," it said.
How it works: Morning Consult's voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they're highly likely to vote in the November election.
- A 1-10 scale was used to identify likely voters, with a "1" meaning the respondent noted they will definitely not vote in the November 2024 presidential election and a "10" meaning they definitely will. Only respondents who rated themselves an "8" or higher were considered likely voters.
- The results don't include responses among voters who were initially undecided and were asked to pick which candidate they're leaning toward.
Between the lines: Both Harris and Trump are courting young adults voters, whom Axios' Noah Bressner notes are one of the largest groups of undecideds and persuadables left in this presidential election.
- Trump is aiming for the "bro" vote with appearances on podcasts and at UFC fights, while Harris is appealing to young women, who've been moving steadily left in recent years amid a surge in activism on issues like abortion in the face of conservative policies.
- Harris enjoyed a boost moments after the debate when Taylor Swift endorsed her on the singer's Instagram account, which has 284 million followers. Swift linked to Vote.gov in her Instagram story and directly drove some 338,000 visits in 15 hours to the federal voter registration site.
The bottom line: Harris "is enjoying a positive news cycle among the likely electorate this year that's earning her positive marks and aligns with her best numbers yet in the head-to-head contest" against Republican presidential nominee Trump, Yokley said.
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