Coin-toss election gives young voters new sway
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America's fickle young voters represent one of the largest groups of undecideds and persuadables left in this presidential election.
Why it matters: In this coin-toss race, any single motivated bloc could have the power to decide the outcome.
Zoom in: Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are waging a multiple-front war to attract swing voters ages 18-29 — the most racially diverse age group in the electorate — and persuade them to cast ballots.
- For Trump, that means gunning for the "bro" vote with testosterone-fueled appearances on podcasts and at UFC fights.
- Harris is betting that young women — who appear to be moving left much faster than young men are moving right — turn out in record numbers, in part because of the GOP's assault on abortion rights.
- Also likely to help Harris: Taylor Swift's much-coveted endorsement and her massive social media presence — 284 million followers on Instagram alone.
By the numbers: Harris is polling much better among 18- to 29-year-olds than President Biden was two months ago. But her numbers are still far behind the big margins Democrats have had over Republicans over the past two decades (charted above) — and they typically need to offset the GOP's advantage among older voters.
- Harris' 15-point lead among young voters in pre-debate polling tracked by The Cook Political Report — if it pans out — would be the worst showing by a Democrat since John Kerry lost in 2004.
The intrigue: Nobody knows whether Swift's endorsement will sway enough Gen Z or millennials toward Harris to make a big difference. But there are strong signs that she's one of the few celebrities who could tilt the needle toward the Democrat.
- Swift — the world's most popular pop star — directed more than 400,000 people to vote.gov from her Instagram account over 24 hours. The site directs people to state election websites, where they can find information to register to vote.
- Harris' campaign quickly started selling now-sold-out friendship bracelets popular among Swifties.
- A surprising number of Gen Z debate viewers (24%) and Independent/no lean voters (15%) said Swift's endorsement would have a bigger impact on the election than the debate itself, according to a SurveyMonkey poll of 3,737 people.
Between the lines: Before Harris entered the race, young voters down on both Biden and Trump expressed historically low interest in the presidential election.
- That dynamic has changed dramatically. Now 43% of young people say they're more likely to vote in the election with Harris as the Democratic candidate, according to a U.S. News-Generation Lab poll.
- Harris has been the Biden administration's most prominent voice on abortion rights. In moderating some of her progressive views since becoming the Democratic nominee, she's said she strongly supports Israel while questioning the Gaza war's impact on innocent citizens.
The other side: Trump is targeting a narrower slice of young voters — men ages 18-24, who identify as Republican at much higher rates than their predecessors.
- The youngest members of that group were just 10 years old when Trump was elected president and see this chaotic political era as normal. They were hardest hit by COVID and felt ignored by the establishment, John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, tells Axios.
- "They think of Trump as an anti-hero and not a villain. ... "I think it's less about policy and much more about personality," Della Volpe said.
Reality check: Young Americans, particularly young men, vote at notoriously low rates. Hoping they show up is a risky bet no campaign wants to fully rely on.
- The polling also could be wrong. Younger Americans, who aren't used to answering phones, have become extremely tricky to survey.
