Inside Harris' high-risk, high-reward debate against Trump
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Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photos: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images and Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images
For Vice President Harris, tonight's debate against Donald Trump is a high-risk, high-reward moment that will test whether her re-introduction to voters can carry her to the White House.
Why it matters: Most voters already know how they feel about Trump, but fewer know how they feel about Harris.
- Harris needs many of those voters — including some independents, anti-Trump Republicans, older white voters, Latinos and African Americans — to take down Trump on Nov. 5.
- In the debate she'll try to show that she's not the "dangerously liberal" candidate that Trump calls her, but is the more moderate, seasoned version of herself that she's been selling in her brief campaign.
- And though she's been vice president for 3½ years, she'll aim to cast herself as a candidate of change — and portray the former president as a divisive voice of the past.
Between the lines: The pressure on Harris, 59, is partly of her making.
- She's avoided unscripted moments and given few interviews during her short campaign since her abrupt ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket in July.
- The debate (hosted by ABC News' David Muir and Linsey Davis, starting at 9 pm ET) will be the first impression many voters get of Harris as a potential president — and she may not get a second chance before such a large audience.
Zoom in: The debate comes at a crucial time in the campaign.
- After replacing President Biden on the Democratic ticket and riding a wave of post-switch enthusiasm, Harris' numbers in recent polls have settled into a virtual dead heat with Trump in most swing states and in national polls.
- A New York Times/Siena poll released over the weekend found that 31% of voters said they needed to "learn more" about Harris, compared to just 12% who said that about Trump.
Trump, 78, has held relatively steady in polls but many top Republicans have urged him to focus more on substantive arguments against Harris rather than incendiary and personal attacks.
- Over the weekend, he threatened to jail his political adversaries, including election officials and Democratic donors, if he's elected.
On Monday, both campaigns offered hints of their debate strategy.
- "He plays from this really old and tired playbook, right?" Harris told radio host Rickey Smiley. "There's no floor for him in terms of how low he will go.... We should be prepared for the fact that he is not burdened by telling the truth."
- Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller told reporters the ex-president will jab Harris over her abandoning "dangerously liberal policy positions" she had during her 2020 campaign for president.
What we're watching: Given that many voters want more information about Harris, how much will she talk about herself versus drawing policy contrasts with Trump?
- Besides abortion rights, what other policy areas will Harris use to attack Trump, who has bragged about appointing three Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade?
- Will Trump be relatively subdued, as he was during his June 27 debate against Biden, or will he flash the anger and mercurial temper he's shown on the campaign trail recently? (Harris' team is hoping he will.)
- Will Trump and Harris shake hands? Presidential candidates haven't done that since the first debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
And finally, there are the stage optics.
- Will viewers be able to tell that Trump and Harris have one of the largest height differences between presidential nominees in U.S. history — about a foot?
- Trump says he's 6 foot 3; Harris says she's 5 foot 4.
- In 1988, former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis (5 foot 9) was worried about his short stature being obvious behind the podium and requested a boost, recalled Frank Fahrenkopf, co-chair of the Commission on Presidential Debates.
- "We built something like a pitcher's mound behind Dukakis' podium for him to step on," he told Axios.
- The Harris and Trump campaigns declined to comment about their height difference. Dukakis did not respond.
