What Edmundo González's exile means for the Venezuelan opposition

Support for Venezuela's opposition coalition could lose steam after leader Edmundo González Urrutia had to flee the country, analysts say.

Why it matters: The departure of González, who the U.S. and others consider the rightful winner of the July 28 presidential elections, signals that repression of dissent under the regime of President Nicolás Maduro is more dangerous than it's been in many years.

Catch up quick: After being threatened with arrest on "terrorism" charges by the Maduro regime, González was granted political asylum in Spain, where he arrived Sunday.

• María Corina Machado, who was last year elected to represent the opposition in the presidential elections but who was barred from running, is one of the last major opposition figures remaining in the country.

What they're saying: Even as González vowed Monday to keep fighting from Spain, Venezuelans might be too demoralized to keep putting pressure on Maduro to step down, says Ryan C. Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

• "We can't underestimate how much fear there is now in Venezuela," Berg says.
• If the opposition calls for another protest, "it's unclear if people will show up in droves like they had earlier and how that could affect" international support, he adds.

Zoom in: Maduro's regime, which claims without evidence that he won a third term, has increased mass arrests and threats against dissidents hiding in foreign embassies and has tried to shut down NGOs in the face of protests against his government.

• Authorities have arbitrarily detained almost 2,000 people since July 29, human rights organizations say.

• Paramilitary groups linked to the ruling PSUV party have been marking the doors of suspected Maduro critics to indicate they're being watched, while security forces have been checking people's phones and social media.
• González says "coercion and threats" from the Maduro government led him to leave.

What we're watching: Some Venezuelan analysts say the opposition could create a government in exile in Spain.

• But a similar recent attempt, the parallel government declared by former opposition leader Juan Guaidó in 2019, crashed and burned in early 2023.
• In the meantime, Chile is among the countries that has been sketching out tentative policies to deal with an even greater influx of Venezuelans, as Berg says it's highly likely more people will try to leave the country in the coming months.

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