Atlantic hurricane season's late-August lull won't last

The Atlantic has already given rise to five named storms, compared to the average of four to date. Two of them — Hurricanes Beryl and Debby — have made landfall in the U.S.

• "Each year like clockwork around this time, we hear rumblings of 'Where are the hurricanes?'" said Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at WPLG TV in Miami. "Apparently, even in years [that] we've had plenty of hurricanes."
• Even though the U.S. "has not yet had a truly 'mega' sized impact/loss event, let's not overlook that it's still mid/late August and there have already been two landfalls," Steve Bowen, chief scientist at Gallagher Re, told Axios via email.

The big picture: Of the season's five named storms, Beryl in late June into early July set numerous records, including the earliest Category 5 storm in Atlantic history.

• There are questions regarding how prepared utilities, homeowners and public officials are for landfalling storms, given the steady increase in coastal residents in recent years.
• Beryl plunged large parts of Houston into darkness as the electrical grid failed to cope with Category One hurricane-force winds and the related tree damage.

Zoom in: The North Atlantic Ocean Basin is still unusually warm for this time of year, running just behind last year's record levels.

• This can be at least partly attributed to human-caused climate change.
• Global warming made ocean temperatures in some parts of the Gulf of Mexico at least 500 times more likely to occur as of Aug. 16, the most recent date with available data.
• This is according to Climate Central's new Climate Shift Index: Ocean, which aims to show the influence of climate change throughout the world's oceans in real time.

By the numbers: According to Bowen, one important metric of Atlantic hurricane activity, known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), stood at 300% of average for the date as of Monday.

• The Atlantic saw its first major hurricane back in June, whereas the average first date of a Category 3 or stronger storm is not until Sept. 1, according to University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy.
• "We've had five named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane so far," McNoldy told Axios. Each of these were weeks — or in Beryl's case, months — ahead of the long-term average date when each of these milestones would be reached.

The intrigue: Some inhibiting factors have kept a lid on Atlantic hurricane activity in the so-called Main Development Region, where some of the most fearsome storms tend to form.

• According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach, as well as Lowry, one factor is an unusually high amount of dust and dry air blowing from east to west off the coast of Africa.
• This layer of air inhibits storm formation and can choke existing storms.
• In addition, the area where clusters of thunderstorms — known as tropical waves — are forming and moving off of Africa has been displaced to the north of where they typically set up. This means they first encounter cooler Atlantic waters to the north of the Cape Verde Islands, which is another impediment.
• Finally, easterly winds associated with an unusually active African monsoon have been stronger than average for this time of year, which has also kept a lid on storm activity.

Yes, but: During late August into September, the dust coming off Africa typically subsides, and the easterly winds are projected to slacken as well.

• That would make the Atlantic far more conducive to forming hurricanes, Klotzbach and Lowry said.

The bottom line: Bowen emphasized that some of the most expensive U.S. hurricanes in the past four decades have struck in September or October, including Hurricanes Ian, Michael, Maria, Sandy, Wilma, Rita, Ivan and Hugo.

• "There is a huge difference between a meteorologically active season and a season which is remembered by the public as historically significant," Bowen said.
• "It only takes one catastrophic event to dramatically change the perception of a season."