Hurricane Beryl sounds alarm for destructive season ahead
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Hurricane Beryl, the most intense hurricane on record anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean so early, is only gradually weakening as it hits Jamaica with "devastating winds," heavy rain and storm surge flooding.
Why it matters: The storm's characteristics — including where it formed and rapidly intensified — offer clues about how the rest of the season may play out.
Threat level: Beryl is likely to hit Jamaica Wednesday as a fierce major hurricane, capable of producing a 6-to-9-foot storm surge, up to a foot of rain and widespread wind damage, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Zoom in: Early storm activity doesn't normally correlate well with an active year, said Colorado State University scientist Phil Klotzbach, who specializes in seasonal hurricane forecasting.
- But this one is likely to be an exception.
- He said that when early storms, such as Beryl, form well to the south, in the deep tropics, and east of about 75° West longitude, "it tends to be a harbinger of a very busy season."
- "That predictor has worked out pretty well most years," Klotzbach told Axios via email. He noted an exception for 2013, when early, weaker storms didn't successfully predict an active season.
- "It's a whole different story when we're getting Category 5 hurricanes" right away, he said. "Unfortunately, Beryl is breaking records that were set in 1933 and 2005 — two of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record."
Between the lines: Klotzbach said early storm activity in that region seems to matter for seasonal forecasting because "it shows that environmental conditions are far more conducive than normal," with Atlantic sea surface temperatures running at record to near-record highs.
- Typically, early storms in the deep tropics, east of 75°W, face obstacles like cool sea surface temperatures, dust blown across the ocean from Africa, dry air and more, he said.
What's next: The storm appears to be a greater threat to the western Gulf Coast than earlier projections showed.
- Beryl's ultimate path will depend on two key factors: Its structure when it emerges off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the intensity of a high pressure area across the Southeast.
- The storm is likely to round the western edge of the high pressure area and curve northward.
- This could bring it ashore as a tropical storm or hurricane this weekend in coastal Texas or western Louisiana.
After Beryl, Klotzbach expects a break in Atlantic hurricane activity for a couple of weeks, until late July and early August, when large-scale weather patterns are better aligned.
- "I am quite worried what we'll have in store" at that time, he said.
