Hurricane Beryl begins weakening as it heads toward Jamaica
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Satellite image of a Category 5 Hurricane Beryl on July 2. Photo: CIRA/RAMMB
Hurricane Beryl rapidly intensified into a "potentially catastrophic" Category 5 storm over the eastern Caribbean as it churned toward Jamaica on Monday night, and has begun a slow weakening trend since.
Why it matters: The storm that earlier made landfall on Grenada's Carriacou Island as a Category 4 hurricane is the earliest Category 5 storm in the Atlantic on record and it's killed at least one person as of early Tuesday. It continued to intensify Tuesday morning.
- Hurricane Beryl, which formed Saturday evening and rapidly intensified into a major Category 4 storm Sunday, is the strongest hurricane on record to hit the southern Windward Island at any time of year.
- Its early formation, rapid intensification and location are all record-breaking.
- It is also the strongest storm on record for July, eclipsing the previous Category 5 storm's maximum sustained winds.
Threat level: Beryl brought "Catastrophic winds and life-threatening storm surge" to the southern Windward Islands, the National Hurricane Center stated.
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines' prime minister confirmed one death in the island nation which, along with Grenada, experienced the worst of the storm and said there could be more fatalities.
- Reports were emerging of extreme damage to Carriacou Island in Grenada, where the eye made landfall.
State of play: As of 2pm Tuesday ET, Hurricane Beryl was located about 485 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving west-northwest at 22 mph.
- Its maximum sustained winds were 155 mph, making it a high-end Category 4 storm.
- "Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane intensity as it moves into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday," the NHC said.
- It is likely to bring heavy rains and high winds to Jamaica, where a hurricane warning is in effect. Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels is forecast for Jamaica.
- However, its threat to the U.S., particularly Texas and Louisiana, as a far weaker storm is not yet clear, and residents of these states should pay close attention to forecasts.
The big picture: Its formation so far east, in what's known as the "Main Development Region" of the tropical Atlantic, this early in the season broke a record first set in 1933.
- It also became the first major hurricane at such an eastern location so early in the season.
How it works: Studies have shown that climate change is raising the likelihood that tropical storms and hurricanes will rapidly intensify, compared to several decades ago, and make larger leaps in intensity as well.
- Such an intensity jump this early in the season, and east of the Windwards, is unheard of, however.
Between the lines: This storm is a Cape Verde-type tropical cyclone, since it originated from a group of thunderstorms called a tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa.
- Typically, these types of storms don't form until August or September, when ocean waters warm sufficiently and winds in the atmosphere above this region slacken, to promote the organization of tropical waves to spin up into tropical cyclones.
Yes, but: This season is anything but normal.
The intrigue: The waters of the North Atlantic Ocean Basin are at record to near-record highs, including within the Main Development Region.
- Since tropical storms and hurricanes derive their energy from warm ocean waters, this raises the odds for early season storms in unusual locations, along with an extremely active season overall.
- In addition, studies show they deliver more rainfall as a result of warming sea and air temperatures.
- In the Caribbean, the waters are as warm as they typically would be in early to mid-September.
Context: The record-warm North Atlantic is part of a global spike in ocean temperatures that has gone on for more than a year, and is in large part due to human-caused climate change.
- While 2023 was the planet's warmest on record, so far, 2024 is running even hotter worldwide.
What's next: Computer models are in agreement that the storm will move west-northwest during the next two days.
- Beryl will battle more hostile atmospheric conditions in the Caribbean, and weaken some during midweek.
- The NHC forecast has the storm potentially making landfall in Jamaica as a Category 3 storm on Wednesday.
What we're watching: The long-range path the storm takes is uncertain, as it could move west into Central America or the Yucatan Peninsula, or try to enter the Gulf of Mexico.
- Most computer models discount the scenario of the storm threading the needle between land areas to enter the bathtub-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Editor's note: This article has been updated with details from the 2am forecast and the situation in islands impacted by the hurricane so far. Rebecca Falconer contributed reporting.
