Why Hurricane Beryl is a warning of what is to come this season
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Hurricane Beryl, currently battering the Windward Islands as the most intense hurricane to form in the Atlantic so early in the year, is validating meteorologists' worst fears about the 2024 season.
Why it matters: Beryl has shattered records for rapid intensification, overall strength and location at this time of year. It has achieved these feats because of unusually hot ocean waters, tied in part to climate change.
- To the numerous forecasting groups who predicted an extremely active hurricane season, Beryl provides an unfortunate validation — and an indication of more record-breaking storms to come.
Zoom in: Beryl has exhibited a record-shattering burst of rapid intensification unheard of for this region of the Atlantic during June.
- "Beryl rapidly intensified 65 mph in 24 hours between 2 PM ET Saturday and 2 PM ET Sunday, " said Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at WPLG Local 10 in Miami. He cited Hurricane Center data.
- "This is the fastest rate of strengthening ever observed in the satellite era (since 1966) for June."
- The trend toward more frequent and larger bouts of rapid intensification is one that studies link to human-caused global warming. Warmer seas, higher air temperatures and more moisture in the air helps fuel these storms.
- Beryl is the earliest Category 4 storm on record in the Atlantic, beating the previous record by more than a week. Reliable records stretch back 174 years.
Context: NOAA and numerous private sector and university research groups predicted an extremely active season, mainly due to the combination of record-hot Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a developing La Niña climate cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
- The waters of the Caribbean, where Beryl is headed, are at their average temperature for early-to-mid-September.
- The record warm North Atlantic is part of a global spike in ocean temperatures that has gone on for more than a year and is in large part due to human-caused climate change.
- While 2023 was the planet's warmest year on record, so far, 2024 has been running even hotter.
The big picture: "This should be a massive wake-up call for anyone who hasn't yet bought into the concerns for the 2024 season," said Steve Bowen, chief science officer at Gallagher Re.
- "When we see ocean waters as warm in June as they typically should be in September, and then observe a storm use this proverbial rocket fuel to undergo a rate of rapid intensification that is much more common in September, it is following the basics of tropical meteorology and climate change science," he told Axios.
- "More heat, more moisture, more intense storms, more unusual storm behavior."
- Other experts told Axios that, in addition to all its unusual milestones, Hurricane Beryl once again demonstrates that small island states that have contributed the least to climate change are suffering from some of its worst consequences.
Between the lines: Scientists took to social media to express a mix of awe and dread as a hurricane this powerful formed so quickly in an area where storms don't typically form, let alone thrive, until September.
- "Beryl is rewriting the history books in all the wrong ways," National Hurricane Center meteorologist Eric Blake posted on X. "Very few will have experienced a hurricane this strong there."
- "It's hard to communicate how unbelievable this is," Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miami, wrote in his newsletter regarding Hurricane Beryl's milestones.
The bottom line: This is going to be a very long and busy Atlantic hurricane season, with additional devastating surprises like Hurricane Beryl.
- "Buckle up," Bowen said.
