Scoop: U.S. privately warned Iran over suspicious nuclear activities
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Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Photo: Iranian Leader Press Office / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images
The Biden administration sent a private warning to Iran last month expressing serious concerns about Iranian research and development activities that could be used for the production of a nuclear weapon, three U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios.
Why it matters: The U.S. and Israel have both detected suspicious nuclear activities by Iranian scientists in recent months. Officials fear they could be part of a covert Iranian effort to use the period around the U.S. presidential election to make progress toward nuclear weaponization.
- The U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities, as well as senior policy officials from both countries, worked to understand the Iranian activities and whether they constituted a change in policy by Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
- Separately, the Secret Service ramped up security around former President Trump in recent weeks after the U.S. obtained intelligence about an Iranian assassination plot unrelated to Saturday's shooting, CNN first reported.
Behind the scenes: U.S. officials said the Biden administration conveyed its nuclear concerns to the Iranians several weeks ago, both through a third country and direct channels.
- The U.S. officials said the Iranians came back with a response that included explanations for these nuclear activities, stressing there has been no change in policy and they are not working on a nuclear weapon.
- The exchange of messages and other information obtained by the U.S. and Israel addressed some of the concerns and somewhat eased anxieties over the Iranian research and development activities, U.S. and Israeli officials said.
- A U.S. official said that the message the U.S. sent to the Iranians was effective, but added there are still significant concerns about the Iranian nuclear program.
What they're saying: "We do not see indications that Iran is currently undertaking the key activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device," a U.S. official told Axios.
- "We take any nuclear escalation by Iran incredibly seriously. And, as the President has made clear, we are committed to never letting Iran obtain a nuclear weapon—and we are prepared to use all elements of national power to ensure that outcome."
Driving the news: Around March, U.S. and Israeli intelligence services obtained information that showed Iranian scientists were engaging in computer modeling and metallurgical research that could be used for the development of nuclear weapons.
- The purpose of the computer modeling was unclear.
- Some U.S. and Israeli officials said the intelligence was a worrying signal about Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions, but other officials on both sides characterized it as a "blip" that doesn't represent a shift in Iran's policy and strategy.
- Iran has repeatedly denied wanting nuclear weapons.
Zoom in: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's former national security adviser, Yaakov Nagel, who is now a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, claimed several dozen Iranian scientists have been working in recent months on technical processes necessary for the building of an atomic bomb.
- Nagel, who is still very close to Netanyahu, told Axios in an interview three weeks ago that this activity is taking place "under an academic umbrella" and is "pushing the envelope" of experiments that have civilian uses.
- Nagel claimed that Israeli and U.S. intelligence agencies believe Khamenei has refrained from explicitly and officially approving the activity in order to leave room for plausible deniability.
- Netanyahu was extremely concerned about the new information and asked the White House to convene the U.S.-Israel Strategic Consultative Group (SCG) to discuss the state of the Iranian nuclear program.
- The meeting, which took place in the White House Situation Room on Monday, was the U.S. and Israel's first high-level and in-depth discussion about the Iranian nuclear program since March 2023.
State of play: The U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities were aligned in their assessments about the state of the Iranian nuclear program at the SCG meeting this week, U.S. and Israeli officials said.
- The officials said both countries' intelligence services do not believe there has been any top-down decision or order by Khamenei to move forward toward the production of a nuclear weapon.
- A U.S. official said that much of the anxiety about Iran's suspicious activities, which led Israel to request the SCG meeting several weeks ago, has since died down.
- The parties agreed to strengthen coordination between the U.S. and Israel on the Iranian nuclear program, especially ahead of the U.S. presidential elections.
