Labor's GOP flirtation heightens Democrats' 2024 election nerves

Driving the news: In February, the Teamsters made its first major donation to the RNC since 2004 after its president, Sean O'Brien, met with former President Trump the previous month. O'Brien has since requested speaking slots at both the Republican and Democratic conventions.

• Another sign of a potential shift: The United Auto Workers — a powerful force in battleground Michigan — waited until January to endorse Biden amid tensions over electric vehicles.
• The Biden administration has enacted policies strengthening unions, with the president also taking the unprecedented step of visiting a UAW picket line last September before winning the group's endorsement.
• Biden regularly asserts that he's the "most pro-union president in history," and has racked up endorsements from dozens of powerful unions.

What we're hearing: One House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, chalked O'Brien's dueling convention requests up to his "ego," but said that "doesn't mean Joe Biden doesn't have a union problem."

• The lawmaker suggested O'Brien is "playing to his members to some extent," adding: "He does have members who like Trump."
• "We need to be concerned," said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), arguing that while Democrats are the more pro-union party, "We can't just assume people are going to figure it out for themselves. We've got to tell the story."
• Another House Democrat said of union voters' apparent swing to the GOP: "Every Democrat knows that this is going to happen."

By the numbers: Biden did significantly better with union voters in 2020 than Hillary Clinton in 2016 — but NBC polling in February found him ahead by nine percentage points with voters in union households, compared to a 16-point lead in NBC's 2020 exit polling.

• A March Quinnipiac poll of Michigan voters also showed Biden with a 9-point edge over Trump with voters in union households — down from a 25-point lead in ABC News' 2020 exit polling.
• Signs of slippage with union voters comes as polling indicates drops in support for the president among other key constituencies — Black, Arab and young voters — central to his re-election in key battleground states.

What they're saying: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), vice chair of the congressional Labor Caucus, said union voters are a "skeptical audience" because "so many of their colleagues have been hurt" by trade policies going back to the 1990s.

• "This has been accelerating over the years ... you'd be skeptical as a worker too. You'd want to listen [to Republicans]," Kaptur said, arguing that Democrats "have to be very clear on who stood with them."
• Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), citing a growing political divergence between union leaders and members, said Democrats "should be listening and finding ways to engage more with rank-and-file labor."
• "Democrats have to recognize that this affiliation [with union leadership] ... is not translating into electoral support," added Phillips, who challenged Biden in the Democratic primary this year.

Yes, but: Several Democrats expressed confidence that their party's pro-union record will translate into support from workers when November arrives – also arguing that unions courting both parties is nothing new.

• "We've always had people within the union movement, especially the building trades, try to be more bipartisan," said Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wisc.), a Labor Caucus co-chair, arguing that the "overwhelming union viewpoint" is in favor of Biden.
• Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) underscored "how dangerous Donald Trump would be for workers ... and I hope that our union leaders – and I think in large part they are – would educate people about that."
• A Biden campaign spokesperson said: "There's only one candidate in this race fighting for American workers and creating good-paying union jobs here at home, and that's President Biden."

What to watch: Steve Smith, deputy director of the AFL-CIO, which gave Biden a historically early endorsement last June, told Axios some Republicans are using "faux populism" to "peel off working-class voters."

• "What we're doing out there in the field every day is sort of like, 'here's the facts, the Republican candidate has a long history of trying to weaken your union ... The Democratic candidate is doing X, Y & Z to support you," Smith said.
• The Biden campaign spokesperson stressed that Trump has "spent his entire life fighting against workers' rights," and said Biden "will continue to work to earn the support of Teamsters and all union voters."

The bottom line: "Nobody can take union members for granted," said Smith.

• "There's nothing magical about union members that they're going to vote Democrat. It all comes down to the communication."