February is continuing Earth's record warm streak
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Record warm global average surface temperatures have continued through mid-February, with no indications of a cooldown that might prevent the month from setting a record.
The big picture: It is clear that 2024 is starting off right where 2023 ended: in all-time record territory, with global average surface air and ocean temperatures staying higher than they were 2023.
- Global average surface air temperatures have reached or exceeded 2°C above preindustrial levels during several days in February, matching spikes first seen in November of last year.
- In the waters of the North Atlantic, including the Main Development Region where most hurricanes form, temperatures have climbed to near levels typically seen during July.
- In short, the ocean temperatures there are bathtub warm, due to a combination of human-caused climate change and natural variability.
Threat level: If these water temperatures don't lessen by the time hurricane season kicks into gear, the 2024 Atlantic season could be a memorable one.
Zoom in: The Atlantic temperature spike is especially concerning to hurricane forecasters because an ongoing strong El Niño event is transitioning into a likely La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
- This La Niña could emerge by the mid-to-end of the hurricane season, and these events tend to make the overall environment in the tropical Atlantic more favorable for hurricane formation and intensification.
- By themselves, the presence of warmer-than-average waters now, and a coming La Niña, are no guarantee of a severe hurricane season, let alone of increased landfalls in the U.S.
- But they do skew the odds in favor of a more active season — particularly if the La Niña begins earlier, rather than later, in the Atlantic hurricane season. The season begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30.
- Seasonal forecasters will look at these factors, among others when making their projections during the next couple of months.
Between the lines: Last year brought record global air and ocean temperatures, with milestone after milestone falling with each passing month.
- The majority of this was due to human-caused climate change, per recent analyses, with a boost from natural climate variability in the form of El Niño.
- It remains to be seen, however, when the extra warming push from El Niño will lessen, allowing temperatures to ebb sometime in the coming six to 12 months.
