Jan 31, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Bloomberg poll: Biden losing ground to Trump on immigration


Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

President Biden looks increasingly vulnerable on the issue that has been the focus of former President Trump's entire political career.

Why it matters: The percentage of voters who said immigration was the "single most important issue" to them in November went up in six of the seven swing states polled in a new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.

  • 61% of those voters in those states say Biden is at least somewhat responsible for the wave of migration on the U.S.-Mexico border.
  • On the same question, 30% blamed the Trump administration and 38% blamed congressional Republicans.
  • Voters in those states say they trust Trump over Biden on immigration 52% to 30%. The 22 percentage point margin is up five points since the last poll in December.

Zoom in: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are the seven states featured in the poll.

  • Asked how they would vote if the election were held today in a one-one-one matchup, Biden trails Trump by an average of 48%-42% across the seven states, which resembles other polls showing Biden lagging Trump in the key states.
  • The economy remained the most important issue in every state, but 51% said they trusted Trump to manage the economy compared to 33% for Biden.

Reality check: Voters were largely down on the economy as a whole, but were significantly more positive in their economic outlook when asked about their own states and communities.

  • Only 29% of voters in the poll said the US economy was on the "right direction," but 52% said the economy was on the "right direction" in their city or town – which they could credit Biden for by November.

What's next: The same indictments that rallied many Republicans to Trump and made him almost unbeatable in the primary have made him a vulnerable general election nominee.

  • The poll shows 23% of self-identified swing-state Republicans say they would reject Trump in 2024 if he is convicted of a crime.
  • He currently faces four criminal cases and 91 counts.
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