Updated Aug 1, 2023 - Politics & Policy

Trump tied with Biden despite most voters thinking he committed serious crimes

President Joe Biden walks on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Maine One in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, July 28, 2023.

President Biden walks on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Maine One in Washington, D.C. on July 28. Photo: Nathan Howard/Bloomberg via Getty Images

President Biden and former President Trump are tied in the polls, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, despite 51% saying they think Trump has committed "serious federal crimes."

The big picture: 53% of those polled think that Trump's actions after the 2020 election "went so far that he threatened American democracy."

  • Both Trump and Biden received 43% in a hypothetical rematch.
  • 41% of registered voters said they had a favorable view of Trump, while 43% said the same about Biden.
  • In the hypothetical rematch between Biden and Trump, 14% of voters did not prefer either candidate, with 10% saying they would either vote for another candidate or they are not going to vote if they are the two choices.

Between the lines: Trump's MAGA base overwhelmingly backs his grievances against federal prosecutors, N.Y. Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn reports.

  • "Zero percent — not a single one of the 319 respondents in this MAGA category — said [Trump] had committed serious federal crimes."
  • Trump already faces two criminal indictments, with the prospect of two more in the coming days.

Zoom in: Biden has appeared to shore up some support among Democratic voters from last year, when 64% of his party said they wanted a new standard-bearer, per the New York Times.

  • According to the new poll, 45% of Democratic primary voters said they think the party should nominate Biden as a 2024 presidential candidate.
  • The top reason Democratic voters said they would want somebody other than Biden is his age — he would be 86 by the end of a second term.
  • Biden's approval rating is at 39%, according to the Times/Siena Poll.

Trump is the frontrunner in the 2024 Republican primary, per a N.Y. Times/Siena College poll out Monday, even as he faces mounting legal troubles.

  • The nearest third-place candidate in the Republican primary is at 3%, and Trump also leads Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 31 percentage points if polled head-to-head.

Go deeper: Trump dominates DeSantis in 2024 poll

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