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Former President Trump is trouncing his Republican rivals in the 2024 primary, according to a new N.Y. Times/Siena College poll, leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 37 percentage points nationally among likely primary voters.
Why it matters: The nearest third-place candidate is at 3%, and Trump also leads DeSantis by 31 percentage points if polled head-to-head.
- In the overall poll, Trump was at 54% and DeSantis was at 17%.
- Former Vice President Pence, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott each had 3%.
- Both Trump and DeSantis have strong overall favorable ratings from voters, with Trump at 76% and DeSantis at 66%.
Zoom out: The poll comes also as Republicans hold a slight partisan edge over Democrats, which shows that 45% of Americans are Republican or lean-Republican, while 42% are Democrat or lean-Democratic, per Gallup.
- That's a change from previous years, including in 2022, when an equal number of Americans said they consider themself a Republican or a Democrat.
- Democrats held a partisan edge over Republicans in 2020, 2018 and 2016, per the average of Gallup party affiliation polls from those years.
Between the lines: DeSantis has made fighting "woke" ideology in schools and businesses a central part of his campaign.
- But asked to choose between "defeating radical 'woke' ideology" and "restoring law and order in our streets and at the border," 65% chose law and order compared to 24% for the ideological fight.
The bottom line: 71% of Republican voters think that Trump has not committed serious federal crimes, per the N.Y. Times/Siena poll.
- Trump and his legal team face the possibility of three civil and two criminal trials before Election Day 2024.
- If the two current criminal trial dates hold, Trump could largely clinch the GOP presidential nomination before voters learn whether he has been convicted on any of the charges.
Go deeper: Trump's courtroom calendar clashes with 2024 campaign