Axios AM Deep Dive: Lessons for the next Olympics

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TOKYO — The Tokyo Olympics have shown that the global sporting event is increasingly tied to events beyond athletics — a reality that will be inescapable in future Games.

Why it matters: From the handling of COVID to protest rules and shaky economics, there are lessons for Olympics organizers in Beijing, Paris and beyond, as well as things to ponder for those considering hosting or sponsoring upcoming Olympics.

Between the lines: While COVID-19 delayed and then reshaped the Tokyo Olympics, we have yet to see the Games turn into a much-feared global superspreader event.

It's too soon to declare victory, but the combination of frequent pre-Games and game-time testing, combined with an estimated 80%-plus vaccination rate, seems to have limited outbreaks among the Olympics participants. 

Still, there were no fans, 29 athletes were excluded after testing positive, and even those who were able to take part had a dramatically altered Olympic experience, without spectators or even family and friends to cheer them on.

Yes, but: We can't say yet that the Olympics passed the test. For one thing, the incubation period for COVID will take a few more weeks, so we won't know the full extent of Olympics-related cases until that time has passed.

There's also a spike in cases throughout Tokyo, and infectious disease experts say it's too early to rule out any connection to the Games.

There’s been a dearth of meaningful COVID information from organizers, said Annemarie Sparrow, a professor at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital.

For instance, the International Olympic Committee reported a .002 positivity rate from about 500,000 COVID tests this week. But “we don’t know what the denominator is,” Sparrow said, referring to exact numbers of how many people, including athletes, are in the Olympic Village on any given day.

Using conservative estimates, the math works out to an average of about 16 daily cases per 100,000. “If the Olympic Village were a country, it would be on a par with Russia & Brazil —43rd & 44th worst in the world,” Sparrow tweeted.

Health care experts say it will be critical to have an independent study examine where the transmission was most likely occurring at the Tokyo Games, to better focus on areas of high transmission for the Winter Games in Beijing.

They also say there needs to be a better plan for how individuals are isolated for COVID protocols, after Tokyo organizers came under fire for the conditions athletes faced during quarantine.

The heat was also a major factor in Tokyo, and a reminder that global warming will need to be considered in the timing of future Games, as well as which cities are chosen and how venues are designed.

Host countries can construct venues with shade in mind and other relief from the heat, or organizers can schedule the Games for a cooler time of year.

Olympic officials have also had to bend on longstanding rules against political demonstrations. 

In Tokyo, women’s soccer players took a knee before a number of matches, while athletes from the U.S. and China also found ways to make political statements that pushed the boundaries of even the relaxed standards.

The big picture: The Olympics is a huge business, and the financial assumptions that underlie the Games are overdue for reevaluation.

The people of Japan got little for their massive investment, separated by metal fences from the Games they paid so dearly to host. With no ticket revenue, an already challenging economic bet turned into a sea of red ink.

Sponsors, likewise, saw their ability to capitalize on their investment sharply limited. Gone entirely was the ability to schmooze clients and pitch products to fans.

What’s next: The Paralympics will start in Tokyo on Aug. 24, and the Winter Olympics will kick off in Beijing in February 2022.

1. What we learned from the Tokyo Olympics

The lessons for future Games, from COVID to protest rules and shaky economics.

Illustration of a series of magnifying glasses in the shape of the Olympics logo

2021 Olympics

Beijing Winter Olympics

Coronavirus

TOKYO — The Tokyo Olympics have shown that the global sporting event is increasingly tied to events beyond athletics — a reality that will be inescapable in future Games.Why it matters: From the handling of COVID to protest rules and shaky economics, there are lessons for Olympics organizers in Beijing, Paris and beyond, as well as things to ponder for those considering hosting or sponsoring upcoming Olympics.

Shifts in technology and media are changing the way we play, watch and understand sports. Business models are adapting and social change is forcing those in charge of teams and leagues to reconsider decades-old practices.

Sports

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Health

Data: Momentive; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios 

Nearly half of Americans say China shouldn't be allowed to host the Winter Games in 2022 because of its record of human rights abuses, a new Axios/Momentive poll finds.

Why it matters: These results suggest that, in addition to facing public health challenges over the continued spread of COVID, the Beijing Games will be politically divisive for a large segment of the American audience.

Older Americans are driving the opposition to China as host, while the partisan gap isn't as pronounced as might be expected.

Just half of Americans said they'd approve of holding the Winter Games without fans as Tokyo did. Beijing organizers haven't yet said what the rules will be.

By the numbers: More than 6 out of 10 Republicans, and half of Democrats, said China's human rights record should prevent it from hosting the Olympics next February. Just 36% of independents said China shouldn't be allowed to host.

There was a big age gap on the question: 59% of Americans 65 and older said China shouldn't host the Games, compared to 51% of people age 35-64 and 40% of those age 18-34.

Americans were closely divided on whether the Beijing Games should be held with no fans: 50% said they'd approve and 44% said they'd disapprove. 

Democrats showed the most support for another spectator-less Olympics, with 66% saying they'd approve — compared with 37% of Republicans and 51% of independents.

The big picture: Americans largely approved of Japan's management of the Summer Games and the COVID restrictions, even though just 46% approved of the decision to go ahead with the Tokyo Games at all — largely unchanged from our poll two weeks ago.

Overall, 55% of Americans said the COVID restrictions in Tokyo were about right, compared to 15% who said they were too restrictive and 26% who said they weren't restrictive enough.

Majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents all agreed the restrictions were about right, even though 28% of Republicans said they were too restrictive and 34% of Democrats said they weren't restrictive enough.

Yes, but: A slight majority of Americans — 51% — said the Olympics usually haven't been worth the cost for their hosts, with just 43% saying they're worth the cost.

The bottom line: For all of the disruption the pandemic caused to the Tokyo Olympics, 61% of Americans said the Games met their expectations — and another 10% said they exceeded expectations.

Methodology: These data are from an Axios|Momentive online poll conducted Aug. 2-4 among 2,875 adults ages 18 and older in the United States. Respondents were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the Momentive platform each day.

Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over. The modeled error estimate is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

2. Exclusive poll: Trouble ahead for the Beijing Olympics

An Axios-Momentive poll finds nearly half of Americans say China shouldn't be allowed to host.

China

Nearly half of Americans say China shouldn&#x27;t be allowed to host the Winter Games in 2022 because of its record of human rights abuses, a new <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios/Momentive poll" data-vars-click-url="https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/axios-2021-olympics-update" data-vars-content-id="670761b3-fd99-4a42-b332-bfe33f6feb44" data-vars-headline="Exclusive poll: Trouble ahead for the Beijing Olympics" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/axios-2021-olympics-update" target="_blank">Axios/Momentive poll</a> finds.Why it matters: These results suggest that, in addition to facing public health challenges over the continued spread of COVID, the Beijing Games will be politically divisive for a large segment of the American audience.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Axios Sports

The Tokyo Games were a wake-up call for the mental health of Olympic athletes and a groundbreaking event for the LGBTQ community — but a big loss for NBC and anyone who wanted Russia to actually get punished for the doping scandal.

Mental health awareness: Simone Biles' withdrawal from gymnastics events generated significant public interest in mental health, and other Olympians also spoke openly about the topic. "Our understanding of and empathy for athletes will never be the same," writes Washington Post's Barry Svrluga.

LGBTQ community: Tokyo 2020 featured a record 182 Olympians publicly out as LGBTQ. They include Laurel Hubbard, the first openly transgender woman to compete; Quinn, the first transgender nonbinary gold medalist; and Tom Daley, who proudly said the words, "I am a gay man and also an Olympic champion."

The United States: With a flurry of gold medals in the final days of competition, the U.S. overtook China to finish its third straight Summer Games atop the gold-medal leaderboard.

Women: This was the most gender-equal Games ever, with women making up a record 49% of all participants. Women have won the majority of Team USA's medals, and women's events have driven 60% of betting action, per PointsBet.

Kuo Hsing-chun: Countries pay athletes varying sums of money for winning medals. No Tokyo Olympian got a bigger payday than Kuo of Taiwan, referred to as Chinese Taipei at the Games, who will receive roughly $760,000 for her weightlifting gold medal.

NBC: It was largely out of the network's control, but broadcasting these Games wasn't exactly a home run. Marquee events whose results were spoiled well before airing in prime time, plus masked faces and fan-less arenas, were brutal for ratings.

Olympic bans: If cheaters never prosper, how does the Russian Olympic Committee have the third-most medals entering Saturday? Somehow, the only real penalties for a state-sponsored doping scheme were that Russian athletes didn't get to wear their flag during competition or hear their national anthem.

Record-holders: Olympic records have fallen at a record pace in Tokyo, erasing countless athletes from the history books. Technology has helped mainly in equipment-based sports (i.e. cycling), but other events are catching up, per The Economist (subscription).

Belarus: Sprinter Kristina Timanovskaya entered the spotlight after she was whisked away by the Belarusian government for criticizing her coaches. But with Timanovskaya safe after Poland offered her asylum, it's now Belarus — and its authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko — that enter the spotlight.

Airbnb: The pandemic left sponsors in a tough spot, particularly those who had planned large-scale campaigns on the ground in Tokyo. Prime example: Airbnb, which had big aspirations as the Olympics' official accommodations sponsor, only to see tourists banned.

Editor's note: This piece was updated with new information based on the final medal tally showing the U.S. earned more gold medals than China.

3. Winners and losers of the Summer Games

A wakeup call for the mental health of Olympic athletes, but a loss for NBC and punishing Russia.

Photo illustration of the Olympic medal podium over the Olympic rings.

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Naomi Baker/Getty Images

The Tokyo Games were a wake-up call for the mental health of Olympic athletes and a groundbreaking event for the LGBTQ community — but a big loss for NBC and anyone who wanted Russia to actually get punished for the doping scandal.

The Winter Games are just six months away, kicking off in Beijing on Feb. 4.

Why it matters: Beijing will become the first city that has hosted both the Summer and Winter Olympics, and it will do so when the virus that originated in China will still be wreaking havoc on the world.

The big picture: We don't yet know the exact COVID protocols and attendance restrictions that the Beijing Games will use, but other storylines will compete to dominate the narrative.

Calls for boycotts have been widespread, with a coalition of 180 human rights groups saying participation in Beijing 2022 would be "tantamount to endorsing China's genocide against the Uyghur people, and legitimizing the increasingly repressive policies of the totalitarian Chinese regime."

A traditional boycott is highly unlikely, but some lawmakers around the world have suggested a more plausible diplomatic boycott, which would still allow athletes to compete even as nations refuse to send a formal delegation of officials to the Games.

Beyond that, foreign journalists who say anything negative about China have become increasingly subjected to a campaign of state-backed hostility, sometimes escalating to threats of physical danger. It's unclear how the 15,000 foreign media and broadcasters expected to attend will be received.

The newly built National Ski Jumping Centre is shaped like a ruyi, a talisman symbolizing power and good fortune in Chinese folklore. Photo: Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images

Details: Geopolitics aside, here's what to expect in Beijing:

109 medal events across seven sports in 15 disciplines: biathlon, bobsleigh (including skeleton), curling, ice hockey, luge, skating (including figure, speed and short track), and skiing (including alpine, cross-country, freestyle, Nordic combined, ski jumping and snowboard).

Venues will be spread among three clusters: Beijing, hosting the opening and closing ceremonies and indoor ice events; Yanqing, 60 miles northwest of Beijing, hosting alpine skiing and sliding events; and Zhangjiakou, 120 miles northwest of Beijing, hosting other snow events like ski jumping.

Of the nearly 3,000 athletes, more than 45% will be women, making these the most gender-balanced Winter Olympics in history.

Go deeper: Taiwan and Hong Kong will be welcome at Beijing Games (ESPN)

4. What to expect at the Beijing 2022 Games

COVID will still be wreaking havoc, but there will also be tensions over human rights.

Illustration of the Olympic rings with yellow stars from China's flag replacing the yellow ring.

2022 Winter Olympics

The Winter Games are just six months away, kicking off in Beijing on Feb. 4.Why it matters: Beijing will become the first city that has hosted both the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Summer" data-vars-click-url="https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/beijing-2008" data-vars-content-id="54b73e36-aeb3-4825-b037-ff1827653d7d" data-vars-headline="What to expect at the Beijing 2022 Games" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/beijing-2008" target="_blank">Summer</a> and Winter Olympics, and it will do so when the virus that originated in China will still be wreaking havoc on the world.

Technology may not have made up for the impact of COVID-19, but its presence was felt at the Tokyo Games, from advances in timing to giant displays that brought the sailing action from sea to shore.

Even the venerable Olympic pin got a digital upgrade, with sponsor Alibaba distributing an electronic button, complete with a small display and pedometer built in.

Those with the digital pin could connect with others and share social media information, earning prizes by making friends and taking steps.

At Olympic Stadium, adorable little, remotely controlled cars collected the shot puts and hammer throws, safely returning them from the infield to upcoming competitors.

Yes, but: Technologies like holograms and remote cheering were being tested in Tokyo but weren't ready to be deployed at scale. Olympics organizers did use video chat to bring athletes face-to-face with family and friends post-competition, but this was more Band-Aid than panacea.

What's next: Virtual reality and other advances hold the promise of allowing those watching from afar to feel closer to the action.

5. The Tokyo Games' tech breakthroughs

The tech presence included advances in timing and giant displays that brought the sailing action from sea to shore.

Photo illustration of two runners approaching the finish line, as the lanes become a circuit pattern.

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Antonin Thuillier/AFP via Getty Images

Technology may not have made up for the impact of COVID-19, but its presence was felt at the Tokyo Games, from advances in timing to giant displays that brought the sailing action from sea to shore.<ul><li>Even the venerable Olympic pin got a digital upgrade, with sponsor Alibaba distributing an electronic button, complete with a small display and pedometer built in.</li></ul>

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Data: CrowdTangle; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Simone Biles was a singular presence on social media during the Olympics, with her Instagram account generating more interactions than the next six Americans combined, according to data from CrowdTangle.

Why it matters: Already a premier name on the U.S. Olympic roster, Biles' struggles in Tokyo shifted the focus from athletics to human interest as she dealt with her mental and emotional health.

The big picture: Instagram was the most popular social media platform for athletes to express themselves during the Tokyo Games, wielding bigger followings and generating more engagement than Facebook or Twitter.

TikTok was a popular place for fans to react to the Olympics.

By the numbers: The biggest Instagram post was from Biles, who said "the outpouring love & support I’ve received has made me realize I’m more than my accomplishments and gymnastics which I never truly believed before."

Biles has the fourth-most followers on the platform, behind NBA players Kevin Durant and Damian Lillard and women's soccer player Alex Morgan.

She added 526k followers during the Olympics, while gymnastics all-around gold medalist Sunisa "Suni" Lee added 344k and women's 400-meter hurdles gold medalist Sydney McLaughlin added 235k.

The eight biggest Instagram posts were all from Biles. No. 9 was from Lee.

The most prolific Instagram poster was wrestler Adeline Gray, who posted 26 times.

The top Facebook posts were from Biles, swimmer Katie Ledecky and gymnast Jordan Chiles.

The most-viewed TikTok from the official NBC Olympics account: men's synchronized diving, with 14.5 million plays.

6. Biles vacuums up Olympics attention on social media

The eight biggest posts from Team USA all came from Biles.

Simone Biles

Simone Biles was a singular presence on social media during the Olympics, with her Instagram account generating more interactions than the next six Americans combined, according to data from CrowdTangle.Why it matters: Already a premier name on the U.S. Olympic roster, Biles&#x27; struggles in Tokyo shifted the focus from athletics to human interest as she dealt with her mental and emotional health.

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

Data: Team USA; Chart: Connor Rothschild and Danielle Alberti/Axios

TikTok has become the breakout media platform during this year's Olympic Games, boosted by its heavy use by young athletes. 

Why it matters: Unlike the social media apps that came before it, TikTok's algorithm is built so that almost any person can go viral overnight. No other medium has ever given athletes, particularly ones that weren't famous before, that same level of instant exposure. 

This is especially true for younger athletes who have grown up in a mobile-first world that's dominated by social media. The average age of a U.S. Olympian this year is 26.

Because the short-form video app makes it easy to combine text, music and  video at the same time, athletes speaking different languages can still go viral all over the world. 

Details: Athletes' videos, which have racked up millions of views in the past few weeks, offer a true, behind-the-scenes look at what's happening in Tokyo. 

Some of the most viral clips take viewers to places where TV cameras can't go, like bedrooms, showers, training gyms, cafeterias and everything in between.

Other videos showcase intimate, unscripted moments that are rarely captured by the media. U.S. diver Tyler Downs got over 3.5 million likes for his video reacting to seeing his crush Simone Biles on a bus ride. 

TikTok videos also reveal what it's like to compete during a pandemic. Some show athletes submitting to COVID-19 tests, while others reveal the safety precautions taken in places like dining halls.

Without spectators this year, some of the most viral TikTok clips have been friends and families of athletes reacting to their loved ones' performances from afar.  

A video posted by the Detroit Lions — showing the nervousness of quarterback David Blough reacting to seeing his wife, Melissa Gonzalez, compete in the women's 400-meter hurdles — quickly went viral, racking up over 2 million likes.

The big picture: It makes sense that platforms like TikTok are stealing the spotlight, given how fractured the U.S. media environment has become. 

Broadcast ratings for the Olympics have plummeted this year, thanks to an uptick in social media and streaming video consumption. 

The bottom line: In a world of fractured attention and pandemic-induced separation, TikTok has also acted as the connective tissue between athletes and fans around the world. 

7. TikTok wins the Olympics

No other medium has given athletes the same level of instant exposure.

TikTok

TikTok has become the breakout media platform during this year&#x27;s Olympic Games, boosted by its heavy use by young athletes. Why it matters: Unlike the social media apps that came before it, TikTok&#x27;s algorithm is built so that almost any person can go viral overnight. No other medium has ever given athletes, particularly ones that weren&#x27;t famous before, that same level of instant exposure.