Climate change in the New Washington

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President Biden is under intense pressure to deliver on his historic climate plans, with real danger that he’ll miss his window on major goals that allies had hoped were in their grasp.

Why it matters: Only six months into his presidency, Biden has a limited amount of time to tackle what he calls "the No. 1 issue facing humanity."

Key parts of his platform are tethered to the infrastructure push underway right now. Biden and liberal Democrats want huge clean energy investments and tax incentives. 

They hope a Democrats-only package would provide vastly more than energy measures in the infrastructure outline Biden unveiled with a bipartisan Senate group on Thursday.

Threat level: Republicans have a good chance of regaining one — and perhaps both — chambers of Congress in the 2022 midterms, effectively slamming Biden's window shut.

And already Democrats are having trouble locking down enough votes in their own ranks for anything resembling Biden's proposals around electric cars, renewables, efficient buildings and more.

The intrigue: The time pressure is even more intense than the electoral calendar suggests.

November brings the most important United Nations climate summit since the 2015 talks that birthed the Paris agreement.

Walking into that summit with an enacted package would help show that the White House pledge to slash U.S. emissions by 50% by 2030 is realistic. 

But if the U.S. effort is foundering, winning higher ambition and tangible new steps from other nations could be a harder diplomatic lift.

The big picture: The U.S. is the world's second-largest greenhouse gas polluter behind runaway leader China.

Biden's campaign platform pledged a sweeping emissions-cutting agenda that would go far beyond that of former President Obama. 

The goals include a carbon-free power sector by 2035; strong new regulations to limit tailpipe emissions; new restrictions on fossil fuel development; and massive new resources for clean energy R&D and deployment.

Big new investments and greatly expanded clean energy incentives would require approval from Congress. Another part of Biden's plan — a "clean energy standard" that forces utilities to vastly ramp up carbon-free power — also requires legislation.

Yes, but: The White House also hopes to accomplish a lot with executive actions by redirecting agencies, including the EPA and the Interior and Energy Departments, to be more climate-focused.

Just one of many examples: Biden is pushing the EPA and the Transportation Department to rewrite vehicle efficiency rules to be much tougher. 

There's also a multi-agency push to accelerate the development of large offshore wind projects.

And U.S. development finance agencies — including the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. — are putting a higher priority on clean energy.

Executive actions face their own hurdles, however, including litigation that greets every major rulemaking.

This month, a federal judge issued an injunction against Biden's freeze on new oil lease sales — a move that foreshadows legal battles that will confront all his regulatory efforts. 

The bottom line: "Every passing day tests [Biden's] ability to achieve an ambitious climate agenda in his first term, especially if the infrastructure bill doesn’t include the transformative investments and tax credits for clean energy," Margaret Jackson of the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center tells Axios via email.

1. Biden's ticking climate clock

He's under intense pressure to tackle what he calls "the number one issue facing humanity."

Illustration of a red alarm clock with graphic shapes in the background

Climate change

President Biden is under intense pressure to deliver on his historic climate plans, with real danger that he’ll miss his window on major goals that allies had hoped were in their grasp.Why it matters: Only six months into his presidency, Biden has a limited amount of time to tackle what he calls &quot;the No. 1 issue facing humanity.&quot;

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

Global average temperature anomalies during 1981-1990 and 2011-2020, compared to 1981-2010 average. Data: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Graphic: Axios Visuals

The climate change the planet has seen so far, now that the world has warmed by about 1.2°C (2.16°F) since the preindustrial era, is already resulting in unprecedented and destructive events worldwide. 

Why it matters: In the past few decades alone, climate change has shifted from a far-off problem disconnected from our day-to-day lives to a crisis to be grappled with here and now. 

From the dried-out landscape of the Southwest to the rapidly warming Arctic, the shifts we've already seen have resulted in what some researchers call "weather weirding," as deadly and damaging weather events supercharged by global warming strike with increasing regularity. 

The details: A look at just the past few years shows a climate that's already separated from the conditions that existed when millennials were born starting in the 1980s. 

The last colder-than-average month globally, compared to the 20th century average, was February 1985. Each of the past three decades has been hotter than the one before it. 

All the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2005.

The oceans, which absorb most of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases, are warming so rapidly that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's chart of ocean heat content has had to be continually adjusted upwards to accommodate the new readings. 

Extreme events: Climate change has manifested itself in the form of extreme weather and climate events that have cost lives and property. 

During 2020, California saw its worst wildfire season on record, with massive fires also occurring in other Western states as well as Siberia and Australia, among other areas. 

Due to human-caused global warming, heat waves are becoming more severe and longer-lasting across large portions of the globe, from the American Southwest to the Middle East. 

A burgeoning scientific field known as extreme event attribution focuses on the links between climate change and extreme weather events, with some of these studies showing that individual events could not have occurred without human-caused global warming.

Sea level rise is leading to a dramatic increase in so-called "sunny day flooding" — floods caused by high tides combined with higher sea levels rather than weather — in major cities along the East Coast of the U.S., a trend that is forecast to continue. 

What's next: The summer of 2021 is a prime example of the costly extreme weather that's becoming the norm, with a severe drought in the West combining with record heat waves to create ideal conditions for wildfires in much of the region. 

Yes, but: Studies show that the more we cut emissions of greenhouse gases — especially if we do it quickly — the better our chances are of averting truly catastrophic consequences of climate change, such as the collapse of the Greenland or West Antarctic Ice Sheets. 

Upcoming climate negotiations in November are aimed at securing enough emissions reduction commitments to avert such disastrous outcomes. 

However, even if all emissions were to stop today, the long atmospheric lifetime of carbon dioxide — on the order of 1,000 years per each molecule — means that we will have to cope with climate change's effects for the rest of our lives. 

Because of this, adaptation efforts are underway to make society more resilient to climate shocks. 

Also, the relentless and steep upward march of emissions has plateaued to some degree, though the necessary cuts have not yet begun.

The bottom line: How severe the effects will be is largely up to us. Innovation in the energy sector to create the clean technologies of the future, as well as the resources we already have available, such as wind, solar and battery technology, mean we can cut emissions by large amounts starting now, depending on the political will. 

2. Global warming makes extreme weather a regular event

We're feeling climate change mainly in the form of extreme weather and climate events.

Global temperature anomalies three decades ago compared to today.

The climate change the planet has seen so far, now that the world has warmed by about 1.2°C (2.16°F) since the preindustrial era, is already resulting in unprecedented and destructive events worldwide. Why it matters: In the past few decades alone, climate change has shifted from a far-off problem disconnected from our day-to-day lives to a crisis to be grappled with here and now.

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

The much-anticipated sixth assessment report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be rolled out on Aug. 9, generating a burst of climate coverage in the media and putting pressure on lawmakers to act.

Why it matters: The IPCC's reports are designed to be the most authoritative summaries of the latest knowledge regarding our changing climate. 

The new report will be used to help inform policymakers headed to the next round of UN climate talks in November in Glasgow. 

The five key areas to watch in the new report, based on conversations with report authors and others who are familiar with its contents:

For the first time, this report will include information — an entire chapter, in fact — on how human-caused global warming is tilting the odds toward more extreme events, such as heat waves and heavy precipitation.

The report will place a greater emphasis on regional information that policymakers can use for climate risk assessments. 

It will look at a wider range of emissions scenarios, including more information about how greenhouse gas emissions are evolving in the real world. This could address concerns that too many climate studies use worst-case scenario projections that don't match actual emissions trends. 

The report will have revised figures for how sensitive the climate is to a doubling of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, using a new suite of computer models, some of which have shown a far higher sensitivity than older models. 

Expect a new range of both projected temperature changes and sea level rise through 2100. The 2014 report, for example, did not include scenarios of significant melting that has since been observed in Greenland and parts of Antarctica, which the new report is expected to include. 

What they're saying: According to Zeke Hausfather, director of climate and energy at The Breakthrough Institute and a contributor to the forthcoming report, it is likely to reshape our thinking on how close we are to the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels. 

"It's really important that policymakers understand the latest science on these issues in order to make decisions. And the IPCC in many ways is explicitly set up to inform policymakers," Hausfather said.

Hausfather said there have been some revisions to surface temperature data sets in recent years, which will be included in the IPCC report, that slightly increase the amount of warming that's already taken place. This means we're actually closer to the 1.5°C target than previously thought.

He said to expect a focus on when we might cross 1.5°C and 2°C under different emissions scenarios and estimates of how sensitive the climate is to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases.

3. The next major climate science report: What to expect

It's likely to reshape our thinking on how close we are to the Paris Agreement's temperature limits.

Illustration of a hand holding a magnifying glass over a stack of papers.

Alternative energy

Extreme weather

The much-anticipated sixth assessment report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be rolled out on Aug. 9, generating a burst of climate coverage in the media and putting pressure on lawmakers to act.Why it matters: The IPCC&#x27;s reports are designed to be the most authoritative summaries of the latest knowledge regarding our changing climate.

Data: Axios-Ipsos Poll; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

Seven out of 10 Americans are aware of the scientific consensus that climate change is largely caused by people, and that the world isn't on track to reach the temperature reduction targets of the Paris climate agreement, according to an Ipsos poll shared exclusively with Axios.

Why it matters: It's the latest in a series of polls that suggest Americans' understanding of climate change has increased in recent years, and particularly over the last five years.

By the numbers: The poll found that 84% of Democrats and 77% of independents were aware that climate scientists overwhelmingly agree that climate change is caused by human activities, and that the world is off track to meet the Paris targets.

Republicans had the lowest share of correct answers, but a slight majority — 52% — were aware of both the scientific consensus and the reality that the world hasn't made enough progress toward the Paris targets.

The poll also found significant differences by education, with 80% of people with college degrees or higher answering the question correctly, compared to 73% of people with some college and 65% of those with a high school degree or less.

77% of urban respondents and 73% of suburban respondents answered the question correctly, compared to 61% of rural respondents.

There were no significant differences by age, income or region of the country.

Between the lines: Climate surveys have found that while a majority of Americans are aware of the scientific consensus, which holds that emissions from human activities are the main cause of global warming in recent decades, they tend to significantly underestimate the extent of that agreement. 

Polling from Yale's Program on Climate Change Communication has found that only about 1 in 5 Americans understands that "nearly all climate scientists (more than 90%) are convinced that human-caused global warming is happening."

Some researchers have shown that one's perception of the amount of scientific agreement is actually a "gateway belief" to viewing climate change as a threat and supporting public action to address it.

Methodology: This poll was conducted June 11–14 by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,019 general population adults age 18 or older. The sample includes 290 Republicans, 304 Democrats and 315 independents.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.

4. Exclusive poll: America catches up with climate science

A new Ipsos poll found that seven out of 10 Americans are aware of the scientific consensus.

Deep Dive

Seven out of 10 Americans are aware of the scientific consensus that climate change is largely caused by people, and that the world isn&#x27;t on track to reach the temperature reduction targets of the Paris climate agreement, according to an Ipsos poll shared exclusively with Axios.Why it matters: It&#x27;s the latest in a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="series of polls" data-vars-click-url="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-april-2020/" data-vars-content-id="8d969de4-f330-4fed-8754-e665423bb07e" data-vars-headline="Exclusive poll: America catches up with climate science" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-april-2020/" target="_blank">series of polls</a> that suggest Americans&#x27; understanding of climate change has increased in recent years, and particularly over the last five years.

Corporations and their K Street lobbyists are grappling with rising pressure for action on climate change from the White House and its Capitol Hill allies.

Why it matters: Democrats' ascendance is prompting powerful business and industrial interests to try and influence the new initiatives in their favor — or at least limit the fallout.

1. The Securities and Exchange Commission is getting an earful from companies and trade groups over plans to mandate disclosure of climate-related risks and opportunities. 

What's noteworthy is that many powerful interests in finance and industry aren't trying to block the rules. Instead, their comments are geared toward helping shape the rules' breadth and specifics.

For instance, the National Association of Manufacturers says mandates should focus only on metrics that are "financially material to the investors in a specific business."

2. K Street powerhouses including the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have adopted new climate positions this year.

API in March endorsed putting a price on CO2 emissions, while in January the Chamber similarly called for a "market-based approach" to speed emissions cuts.

Both groups also now embrace regulation of the potent greenhouse gas methane under the Clean Air Act.

3. Renewable energy companies, electric vehicle producers and other clean tech interests, meanwhile, are rushing to take advantage of new openings for supportive policy.

For example, the solar industry has thrown its weight behind a new proposal from Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Georgia Democrat, to create new tax credits for domestic solar equipment manufacturers.

The big picture: The political landscape has changed seismically from the Trump era, and corporations — especially polluting industries — also face increasing pressure from activists and shareholders to do more.

The intrigue: Look for plenty of big battles as President Biden attempts to enact his agenda. The oil industry strongly opposes a White House move to impose even a temporary pause on new oil-and-gas lease sales.

And the industry's embrace of carbon pricing comes as pricing has lost momentum on the left and top Democrats are not aggressively pursuing it.

What they're saying: “Because there is unified control of Washington, there is a lot of excitement by the majority party to execute on their vision,” said Shane Skelton, a senior VP with Boundary Stone Partners, which represents an array of clean energy clients.

However, “you also want to keep the minority involved," said Skelton, who was an aide to former House Speaker Paul Ryan. He added that policies are more lasting and durable when they have bipartisan buy-in.

5. Business looks for traction in the new Beltway

They're trying to influence the new initiatives in their favor, or at least limit the fallout.

Illustration of businessmen circling the U.S. Capitol. 

Climate change policy

Corporations and their K Street lobbyists are grappling with rising pressure for action on climate change from the White House and its Capitol Hill allies.Why it matters: Democrats&#x27; ascendance is prompting powerful business and industrial interests to try and influence the new initiatives in their favor — or at least limit the fallout.

When world leaders hold a climate summit in Glasgow in November, success will revolve around two issues that have sunk or slowed past negotiations:

How to help developing countries transition to clean energy and how to respond to "loss and damage" — the devastation caused by climate change.

Why it matters: The Glasgow talks are the first since the U.S. rejoined the Paris pact after former President Trump withdrew from the agreement and ceded a leadership opportunity on climate to Europe and China. 

Therefore, the summit will offer a test of America's continued credibility on climate progress. It will also reveal whether countries have the collective will to act forcefully enough to avoid potentially catastrophic climate change outcomes. 

Between the lines: If there is to be a breakthrough, it will likely include climate finance mechanisms, new pledges for more stringent emissions cuts to be made by 2030, and a recognition that the issue of "loss and damage" should be considered more seriously by industrialized nations.

A "loss and damage" provision and finance proposals are both meant to recognize that countries least responsible for global warming — such as small island states — are bearing the biggest burden from extreme weather events and sea level rise.

Yes, but: The biggest sticking point is the lack of funding to date by rich nations to help poor countries cope with climate change impacts and make the transition to clean energy.

During previous climate talks, industrialized countries pledged $100 billion per year in climate aid starting in 2020, but that money has not materialized.

Without a detailed proposal to provide it going into the talks, developing countries may not be willing to agree to other priorities, analysts told Axios. 

The big picture: The summit, also known as COP26, is widely viewed as the last, best chance to limit global warming to the Paris temperature targets of 1.5°C (2.7°F) and 2°C (3.6°F) above preindustrial levels by 2100.

It is not, however, the last chance for the world to address global warming in general. It's not like avoiding a cliff that the world will suddenly go over, scientists have said. It's more like trying to slow and stop a boulder as it moves downhill, picking up momentum as it goes along.

Research has shown that keeping warming as low as possible is necessary to avoid potentially devastating impacts, such as the melting of large parts of the planet's ice sheets. 

Details: China, the world's top emitter of greenhouse gases, will also loom large at the talks, according to David Waskow of the World Resources Institute. 

The country has committed to a package of 2030 emissions reduction targets, including cutting the carbon dioxide intensity of its GDP by more than 65% from 2005 levels. 

The U.S., EU and others would like to see China make more aggressive emissions cuts, but it's not clear in the run-up to the meeting that they have enough leverage to ramp up pressure on China to do so, Waskow said.

The bottom line: COP26 could make or break our chances of meeting the Paris targets, which many studies have said are nearly out of reach as it is. 

6. UN climate summit faces serious roadblocks

The stakes in November couldn't be higher, but the tangible outcomes may be underwhelming.

Illustration of office chairs surrounding a circular table with the UN Climate Conference logo.

China

When world leaders hold a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="climate summit in Glasgow" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/cop26-glasgow-what-to-know-4d3ad2a2-8342-4335-a56f-db1cadc7aff7.html" data-vars-content-id="bd0ca399-0839-4635-94be-9f9aab9c85fc" data-vars-headline="UN climate summit faces serious roadblocks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/cop26-glasgow-what-to-know-4d3ad2a2-8342-4335-a56f-db1cadc7aff7.html" target="_self">climate summit in Glasgow</a> in November, success will revolve around two issues that have sunk or slowed past negotiations:<ul><li>How to help developing countries transition to clean energy and how to respond to &quot;loss and damage&quot; — the devastation caused by climate change.</li></ul>

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

True or false: Scientists agree on climate change causes, world isn't on track to meet Paris targets

Exclusive poll: America catches up with climate science

Illustration of the earth with a jagged line behind it