Biden gets a road test

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Axios World

President Biden takes his "America is back" doctrine on the road this week — the biggest test yet of his belief that the U.S. can better confront adversaries by embracing allies.

Biden flies first to England, where he'll meet Thursday with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Queen Elizabeth II and other allies at the G7 summit. He'll continue on to a NATO conclave in Brussels on June 14, before his tête-à-tête with Vladimir Putin in Geneva two days later.

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman told Axios that this "sequencing of events" lets Biden coordinate with allies before meeting Putin.

The big picture: Biden has promised to revitalize multilateralism, stand up for human rights and democracy, position the U.S. for competition with China and rally the world to fight climate change.

But those priorities have clashed in his first four months in office.

"What we try to do is fairly complex choreography that leads to an outcome that works for the American people," Sherman said.

Sherman spoke to Axios between stops in Cambodia and Thailand. She was meeting with governments that are trampling democracy rather than advancing it — but ones with which the U.S. wants to strengthen ties as part of its strategic competition with China.

"One has to raise it all — I don't hesitate and we don't hesitate," Sherman says. "If I go to a country in which we have a security relationship, that's important, but it doesn't stop us from raising these human rights issues."

Every administration has to balance America's interests and values. But the premium Biden has put on the latter makes it particularly striking when he prioritizes the former.

Multilateralism receded last month when the U.S. blocked efforts by France and other allies at the UN Security Council to demand a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

And for all Biden's talk of leveraging American leadership to help end the pandemic, the U.S. until recently was the only major vaccine producer to hoard virtually its entire supply.

But Biden coordinated with allies on sanctions on China and Russia, and brought together "the Quad" — Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. — to increase vaccine production and work on a united stance toward Beijing.

The bottom line for allies Biden meets in Europe this week: He's not Donald Trump.

1. "America is back" hits the road

A big test of his belief that the U.S. can confront adversaries by embracing allies.

Illustration of the statue of liberty with white arrows in the background

Foreign policy

President Biden takes his &quot;America is back&quot; doctrine on the road this week — the biggest test yet of his belief that the U.S. can better confront adversaries by embracing allies.<ul><li>Biden flies first to England, where he&#x27;ll meet Thursday with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Queen Elizabeth II and other allies at the G7 summit. He&#x27;ll continue on to a NATO conclave in Brussels on June 14, before his tête-à-tête with Vladimir Putin in Geneva two days later.</li><li>Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman told Axios that this &quot;sequencing of events&quot; lets Biden coordinate with allies before meeting Putin.</li></ul>The big picture: Biden has promised to revitalize multilateralism, stand up for human rights and democracy, position the U.S. for competition with China and rally the world to fight climate change.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

U.S.-Russia relations are at their lowest point since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Why it matters: So it's fitting that President Biden and Vladimir Putin will sit down in Geneva, the site of Ronald Reagan's first meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985.

The White House has rejected the idea that the summit is a "reward" for Putin, noting that Biden proposed the meeting "because of our countries' differences, not in spite of them."

The U.S. intelligence community reported on March 16 that Putin authorized influence operations in 2020 aimed at denigrating Biden's candidacy and supporting Trump's.

The next day, Biden called Putin a "killer" on national television, setting off a mini diplomatic crisis.

The Biden administration has levied sanctions against Russia for the massive SolarWinds hack of federal agencies and the poisoning and jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. And yet Putin is undeterred.

In the past two months, Russia has engaged in a menacing military buildup on Ukraine's border, launched a new wave of cyberattacks and strangled Navalny's opposition network.

But even with the latest provocations, Biden has vowed to work with Russia on areas of mutual concern, like nuclear proliferation.

Both sides have sought to downplay expectations for the summit or the prospects of a "reset" in relations.

A successful outcome might be simply arresting the deterioration of relations and establishing some modicum of stability as the U.S. pivots to its definitional geopolitical challenge of this century: China.

2. Why Biden wants to sit down with Putin

U.S.-Russia relations are at their lowest point since the Cold War.

 Illustration of US President Joe Biden and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. 

Photo Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photos: Alexei Druzhinin (TASS), Alex Wong/Getty Images

Russia

U.S.-Russia relations are at their lowest point since the fall of the Soviet Union.Why it matters: So it&#x27;s fitting that President Biden and Vladimir Putin will sit down in Geneva, the site of Ronald Reagan&#x27;s first meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985.<ul><li>The White House has rejected the idea that the summit is a &quot;reward&quot; for Putin, noting that Biden proposed the meeting &quot;because of our countries&#x27; differences, not in spite of them.&quot;</li></ul>

China

Axios China

By embracing moves made during the last year of the Trump administration, President Biden is persuading reluctant U.S. progressives and even some European leaders that a more muscular China policy is necessary.

Why it matters: "Any concerns that the Biden administration might soften Trump's policies toward China have largely been laid to rest," said Lisa Curtis, who directs the Center for a New America Security's Indo-Pacific Security Program and served on Trump's National Security Council.

What's happening: Biden hasn't made any dramatic new policy changes but is working hard to bring Democrats, allies and European skeptics to the table.

Driving the news: Biden has followed Trump's lead in recognizing that the Chinese Communist Party is committing genocide in Xinjiang and in immediately reaffirming support for Taiwan.

He has built on Trump's elevation of "the Quad" — Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. — hosting the grouping's first-ever leader-level summit.

Biden announced last week that he'd asked U.S. intelligence agencies to compile a report about COVID's origins,  giving new life to the theory — embraced by some Trump officials — that the outbreak may have resulted from a lab accident in China.

On Thursday, Biden expanded Trump's blacklist of Chinese companies barred from receiving U.S. investment.

What's next: A major bipartisan bill aiming to curb China's global influence and strengthen America's competitive advantage is now working its way through the Senate, with strong support from leading Democrats and Biden allies like Chris Coons.

But competition isn't everything. The Biden administration is also "exploring whether there is potential to cooperate on issues like climate change or nonproliferation," Curtis told Axios.

"The goal appears to be to try to cushion tense relations with some shock absorbers that prevent the two countries from sliding toward conflict."

What to watch: The Pentagon's China task force is currently reviewing the department's China policies. 

"The likely outcome of the review is some shift of military resources away from the Middle East (witness the withdrawal from Afghanistan) to the Asia-Pacific to counter China," the Brookings Institution's David Dollar writes.

Go deeper: Biden's China plan: Bring allies 

3. Biden extends Trump's tough line on China

Illustration of a hand drawing a line between the Chinese and U.S. flags

By embracing moves made during the last year of the Trump administration, President Biden is persuading reluctant U.S. progressives and even some European leaders that a more muscular China policy is necessary.Why it matters: &quot;Any concerns that the Biden administration might soften Trump&#x27;s policies toward China have largely been laid to rest,&quot; said Lisa Curtis, who directs the Center for a New America Security&#x27;s Indo-Pacific Security Program and served on Trump&#x27;s National Security Council.

Tel Aviv

Axios from Tel Aviv

President Biden had intended to pivot away from the Middle East and shun its strongmen, but the regional reality has already forced him to shift course.

Why it matters: Biden initially saw the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a low priority in which it wasn't worth investing political capital. But the latest fighting in Gaza exposed how unprepared the administration was for an escalation. Since then, Biden's engagement has dramatically increased.

Biden also began by distancing himself from Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who was Trump's "favorite dictator" despite a grim human rights record.

But when the Gaza crisis happened, Biden realized Sisi was the only player capable of mediating a ceasefire. After waiting four months for a call from Biden, he received two in two weeks.

Biden did cool relations with Saudi Arabia over the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, but stopped short of punishing Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman directly.

And while he paused a major arms deal with another Gulf monarchy, the UAE, he ultimately let it through.

The other side: Biden's top priority in the Middle East was putting Iran's nuclear program "back in the box." But after five rounds of indirect talks in Vienna, a deal to salvage the 2015 nuclear accord remains elusive.

4. The Middle East sucks Biden back in

The regional reality has already forced him to shift course

Illustration of U.S. President Joe Biden with a map of the Middle East in the background.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Israel

President Biden had intended to pivot away from the Middle East and shun its strongmen, but the regional reality has already forced him to shift course.Why it matters: Biden initially saw the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a low priority in which it wasn&#x27;t worth investing political capital. But the latest fighting in Gaza exposed how unprepared the administration was for an escalation. Since then, Biden&#x27;s engagement has dramatically increased.

Sneak Peek

Axios Sneak Peek

President Biden has rebooted America’s foreign policy apparatus, reestablished diplomatic channels and reassured allies — and adversaries — that predictability will define his approach. Now comes the hard part. 

Driving the news: Biden will leave for the U.K. this week for his first in-person international summits and then a face-t0-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, putting years of diplomatic training to the test. 

“They’ve made the necessary calls, traveled to the right places, attended the appropriate meetings,” said Ivo Daalder, the president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and President Obama’s first ambassador to NATO. 

“But, as Biden admits, it’s not enough to say America is back. He has to convince the world that we are staying.”

Why it matters: After four years of diplomacy-by-tweet under President Trump, allies and partners are reacclimating to a more familiar foreign policy process: The president doesn’t undercut his secretary of state, diplomats are empowered and meetings tend to follow script. 

“Both our foreign partners and the business community are relieved by the return of an orderly policymaking process in the executive branch that is based on an assessment of U.S. interests, not the ego-driven impulsiveness of its leader,” said Dan Price, who served as President George W. Bush’s “sherpa” and is now managing director of Rock Creek Global Advisors.

But for Europeans looking for new climate protocols to the Iranians, who want sanctions lifted over their nuclear ambitions, Biden will now have to deliver. 

“There are heightened expectations now for concrete actions that would show renewed U.S. global economic leadership post-Trump,” said Price.

The big picture: Biden hasn’t completely upended Trump’s foreign policy and has subsumed Trump's more confrontational approach to China. 

He has also kept in place Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum from the European Union, although negotiators have agreed not to escalate the dispute and are working on a resolution.

But, but, but: Biden’s most important diplomatic relationship — with the Chinese — got off to an undiplomatic start when Chinese officials began the meeting by  accusing Secretary of State Tony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan of hypocrisy. 

More recently, Pentagon officials have said that China has rebuffed efforts by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to connect with Chinese counterparts, which has, in turn, aggravated the Chinese. 

The bottom line: Practicing diplomacy is much harder than talking about diplomacy. 

“Next week he needs to pivot — from saying we’re back to proposing an agenda to allies to meet the challenges we face,” said Daalder. 

5. Biden's diplomacy first approach put to the test

Diplomacy is back. Now comes the hard part.

Illustration of hands shaking over a barchart showing a standard deviation bell curve. 

President Biden has rebooted America’s foreign policy apparatus, reestablished diplomatic channels and reassured allies — and adversaries — that predictability will define his approach. Now comes the hard part. Driving the news: Biden will leave for the U.K. this week for his first in-person international summits and then a face-t0-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, putting years of diplomatic training to the test.

Reproduced from Morning Consult. (Country margins of error range from 1-3%.) Chart: Axios Visuals

Favorable views of the U.S. increased after Biden's inauguration in nearly every country polled by Morning Consult.

6. Biden's global reviews

Favorable views of the U.S. increased after Biden&#x27;s inauguration in nearly every country <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="polled" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/24064707.31/aHR0cHM6Ly9tb3JuaW5nY29uc3VsdC5jb20vMjAyMS8wNC8yNy9iaWRlbi0xMDAtZGF5cy1nbG9iYWwtdmlld3MtYW1lcmljYS8_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXNlbmR0b19uZXdzbGV0dGVydGVzdCZzdHJlYW09dG9w/5849752d3c8aa983568b458bB255876d0" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/24064707.31/aHR0cHM6Ly9tb3JuaW5nY29uc3VsdC5jb20vMjAyMS8wNC8yNy9iaWRlbi0xMDAtZGF5cy1nbG9iYWwtdmlld3MtYW1lcmljYS8_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXNlbmR0b19uZXdzbGV0dGVydGVzdCZzdHJlYW09dG9w/5849752d3c8aa983568b458bB255876d0" target="_blank">polled</a> by Morning Consult.<ul><li>The exception: China.</li></ul>

Ahead of his first foreign trip this coming week, President Biden made a long-awaited announcement about how the U.S. will share its excess vaccines with the world.

The 80 million doses Biden has promised to donate before the end of this month are a fraction of the total U.S. supply — but nonetheless five times more than any other country has pledged, according to White House COVID coordinator Jeff Zients.

Why it matters: The pivot from vaccine hoarder to global supplier could be the most important foreign policy move Biden makes this year.

Climate change will also be high on the agenda at the G7 meeting — a critical opportunity to build momentum ahead of November's UN climate summit in Glasgow, notes Axios climate reporter Andrew Freedman.

After returning the U.S. to the Paris climate agreement, Biden proposed the most ambitious climate plan of any U.S. president, and pushed other countries to follow suit.

What to watch: President Trump frequently accused allies of free-riding off America's generosity and sacrifices. Biden is betting that by upping America's commitments, he can bring others along.

7. Two big tests: Climate and vaccines

Biden is betting that by upping America's commitments, he can bring others along.

Illustration of the U.S. Capitol building with a syringe on top.

Ahead of his first foreign trip this coming week, President Biden made a long-awaited <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="announcement" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/24064707.31/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL3VzLXZhY2NpbmUtZ2xvYmFsLXN1cHBseS1mZjg2NjlmOS0yOWI2LTQxMGUtYmM2OC05NjA4ZDBhZTJmOTIuaHRtbD91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249c2VuZHRvX25ld3NsZXR0ZXJ0ZXN0JnN0cmVhbT10b3A/5849752d3c8aa983568b458bB839130fd" data-vars-content-id="3a9abd0f-9d9d-4a99-bbc2-6ad7458e7181" data-vars-headline="Two big tests: Climate and vaccines" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/24064707.31/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL3VzLXZhY2NpbmUtZ2xvYmFsLXN1cHBseS1mZjg2NjlmOS0yOWI2LTQxMGUtYmM2OC05NjA4ZDBhZTJmOTIuaHRtbD91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249c2VuZHRvX25ld3NsZXR0ZXJ0ZXN0JnN0cmVhbT10b3A/5849752d3c8aa983568b458bB839130fd" target="_blank">announcement</a> about how the U.S. will share its excess vaccines with the world.<ul><li>The 80 million doses Biden has promised to donate before the end of this month are a fraction of the total U.S. supply — but nonetheless five times more than any other country has pledged, according to White House COVID coordinator Jeff Zients.</li></ul>Why it matters: The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="pivot" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/24064707.31/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2JpZGVuLWRvbmF0ZS1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1kb3Nlcy13aGljaC1jb3VudHJpZXMtYzk5MTk4OTMtYmE5Zi00OWQ2LWEwYjUtZjllMWQ1YjdhMmQ4Lmh0bWw_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXNlbmR0b19uZXdzbGV0dGVydGVzdCZzdHJlYW09dG9w/5849752d3c8aa983568b458bBd73f11de" data-vars-content-id="3a9abd0f-9d9d-4a99-bbc2-6ad7458e7181" data-vars-headline="Two big tests: Climate and vaccines" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/24064707.31/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2JpZGVuLWRvbmF0ZS1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1kb3Nlcy13aGljaC1jb3VudHJpZXMtYzk5MTk4OTMtYmE5Zi00OWQ2LWEwYjUtZjllMWQ1YjdhMmQ4Lmh0bWw_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXNlbmR0b19uZXdzbGV0dGVydGVzdCZzdHJlYW09dG9w/5849752d3c8aa983568b458bBd73f11de" target="_blank">pivot</a> from vaccine hoarder to global supplier could be the most important foreign policy move Biden makes this year.

The Middle East sucks Biden back in

Illustration of a compass with arrows behind it