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Expand chart
Data: SurveyMonkey online poll. Poll methodology; Note: Net favorability is the difference between the share of respondents who approve and disapprove; Chart reflects responses of registered voters. Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

President Trump would lose the 2020 election against every woman mentioned as a possible Democratic opponent, according to an Axios poll by SurveyMonkey, aired first on HBO Sunday night.

Why it matters: Trump is underwater with women voters (64% of women view him unfavorably), and particularly among white suburban women — a group that will be critical in 2020. Look for Democrats to turn to their top 2020 female candidates after Tuesday’s election. A record number of women are running and a record number of women are expected to vote and win come Tuesday. 

Trump vs the superstars: Even though they're unlikely to run, both Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey would crush Trump if the election were held today, according to the poll conducted by SurveyMonkey.

  • And both women lead by double digits in favorability. Trump's favorability is just 40% among registered voters, per the poll, compared to 62% for Obama and 55% for Winfrey.

Trump vs. the rising stars: More probable but lesser-known candidates — Democratic Sens. Kamala Harris (Calif.), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) — would all beat Trump, too. 

  • But name recognition is a factor. A near-majority of registered voters said they didn't know enough about Harris, Klobuchar or Gillibrand to be able to rate them as favorable or unfavorable.
  • Still, of these three women, Harris would beat Trump most handily — by a 10-point margin — if the election were held today. She polls well with African American and white suburban women, but not with #NeverHillary independent registered voters.
  • Klobuchar polls best with white suburban women, and would beat Trump by 9 points.

Trump vs. the establishment: The two women who barely edge out Trump are Hillary Clinton and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is in a virtual tie with the president. 

  • The 2016 election results would remain. If they went head-t0-head again today, Clinton would still beat Trump in the popular vote by a similar same gap as 2016 (50% to 45% of the electorate).
  • While Democrats support Obama and Winfrey, 65% still feel favorable towards Clinton.
  • Of all the women in match-ups with Trump, Warren was least popular with white suburban women, but she polled well with millennials.

A huge caveat here: Only 40% of registered voters approve of Trump, per the poll, so most Democrats do well in head-to-head matchups with him, especially before the president has begun to pick them apart publicly.

  • A cautionary note: Warren, the woman struggling most against Trump right now, chose to release her genetic testing after the president called her "Pocahontas" for two years and questioned her claims of Native American heritage. So all 2020 hopefuls need to brace for the effect of Trump’s name calling and personal attacks. 

The big picture: Many of Trump's controversial moves — from child-separation policy at the Mexico border to the Supreme Court confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh — have eroded his support among women voters. The #MeToo movement and record number of women running for office this year have also helped to empower women in the political sphere.

The bottom line: Women wield an incredible amount of voting power, but it still comes down to turnout. The two groups who the poll shows would overwhelmingly opt for anyone but Trump — African American women and millennials — are also two groups that tend to be less reliable in going to the polls.

Methodology: These data are from two surveys. The first was conducted October 24-28, 2018 among 3,411 adults, and has a modeled error estimate for the full sample of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The second was conducted October 28-30, 2018 among 6,497 adults, and has a modeled error estimate for the full sample is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. Full cross-tabs available here.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Surprising pandemic side effect: Soaring trade deficits

Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis; Chart: Axios Visuals

Inflation and jobs may get all the economic headlines, but meanwhile a big shift is taking place in the underpinnings of the world economy: The U.S. trade deficit is soaring.

What's happening: Americans' spending on imported physical goods has gone through the roof, while exports are growing slowly, making the U.S. the world's consumer of last resort.

Mike Allen, author of AM
2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Third Way: "Big Lie" could become "Big Coup"

Graphic: Third Way

Third Way, the center-left think tank, is urging fellow Democrats to respond to the Capitol riot with "the size, scope, and seriousness of a presidential campaign," co-founder Matt Bennett tells me.

Driving the news: "For the first time in U.S. history, a party must mount two parallel presidential campaigns: one to win the election, and the other to prevent its theft," Bennett said, calling this "a Paul Revere moment."

Advocates say Biden has let Haitian migrants down

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, Christian Torres/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Continued turmoil in Haiti is causing a growing number of Haitians to try to make it to American shores — and some advocates say the Biden administration isn't supporting this community in its time of crisis.

The big picture: Haitian-American activists in South Florida told Axios Today they feel like President Biden has gone back on campaign promises he made to the community to stand up for them.