The stock market has achieved a third consecutive year of double-digit gains, with the benchmark S&P 500 index rising 16.4% for 2025. That has happened only five times since the 1940s.
Why it matters: You wouldn't know that based on the vibes on Wall Street, where the three-year-old bull market is being questioned constantly and on a day when stocks ended the final trading session of the year solidly in the red (down 0.74% on Wednesday).
Despite the downbeat mood, strategists see stocks continuing to gain in 2026 thanks to their biggest bet and fear: AI.
AI-driven scientific innovation accelerated in 2025 — fueling major progress in fields ranging from robotics to health care.
Why it matters: Powerful new models and computing tools are influencing everything from how experiments are designed to how results are analyzed — with much of that momentum coming from the private sector.
Meta's acquisition of Manus AI could be worth around $2.5 billion, including employee retention compensation, Axios has learned from a source familiar with the deal.
Why it matters: AI has reset startup exit valuations, driven by unprecedented revenue growth.
The U.S. economy was beaten and battered in 2025, and powered ahead despite it all.
The big picture: The question for 2026 is whether the underlying sources of weakness that are already evident will broaden out into something that threatens to undermine its overall resilience.
