Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Axios on your phone

Get breaking news and scoops on the go with the Axios app.

Download for free.

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

The transportation industry is teetering between tried-and-true business models of the past and an alluring, but uncertain, future.

The big picture: The modernization of cars, trucks, planes and public transit could be one of the greatest reorderings of civilization since the dawn of the horseless carriage. But progress in the $1.5 trillion transportation industry is getting snagged on technological, regulatory and social issues.

What's happening: A historic shift to cleaner, more economical, automated transportation is underway.

All of this change is roiling an industry that provides jobs to 13.3 million people in the U.S. and represents a 9% slice of the U.S. economy.

  • The future, industry leaders predict, is a clean, highly-tuned, multimodal transportation system that includes shared, connected vehicles running on electrons rather than gasoline and in which driving is optional.

But that vision is being challenged by unforeseen technical hurdles, crumbling infrastructure and a stalled-out federal government that has yet to create standards and regulations for the coming changes, leaving strapped states struggling to step in.

  • Meanwhile, cars, trucks, planes and ships continue to pump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, accounting for nearly 22% of global carbon emissions in 2018, per the IEA.
  • President Trump has gone to battle with California over auto emissions laws, causing regulatory uncertainty for automakers during what is likely to be a long court battle.
  • All the while, a culture of convenience is fueling a fast delivery system that is putting more vehicles on the road and more CO2 in the air.
  • Companies have to solve the stubborn technical challenges associated with AVs and EVs, but also figure out how to make money from vehicles that consumers aren't interested in or don't trust.
  • The world's largest automakers — once drivers of employment and the economy — are also weathering labor disputes and are caught up in politics as trade wars persist and the global economy is reordered.

What to watch: The specter of disruption is triggering enormous R&D investment by automakers fearful of becoming the next Kodak, Blockbuster or BlackBerry.

  • Spending on AVs, by both traditional automakers and newcomers, is forecast to grow to a cumulative $85 billion through 2025 — on top of the $225 billion spending for EVs, according to Alix Partners.
  • They're all chasing a multitrillion-dollar global market that Boston Consulting Group says is worth $380 billion in profits.
  • But there's no guarantee any of it will pay off.

"It’s a gamble based on what you think will happen, but if you don’t do anything, then for sure you’re out of business," says Mike Ramsey, an analyst at Gartner.

Go deeper

Updated 5 mins ago - Sports

Olympics dashboard

Team USA's Caeleb Dressel celebrates winning gold in the final of the men's 50m freestyle swimming event at the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Gameson Sunday. Photo: Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images

🚨: Simone Biles won't compete in Olympic floor finals, individual vault or uneven bars

🏊: U.S. wins gold in men's 4x100-meter medley relay, earning Caeleb Dressel fifth gold

🏊‍♀️: Katie Ledecky wins gold in women's 800m freestyle

🇬🇧: Britain wins gold in first-ever Olympic mixed 4x100m medley relay

💻: Japan tests teleporting games and "remote cheering"

🏳️‍⚧️: Axios at the Olympics: Games grapple with trans athletesTrans athletes see the Tokyo Games as a watershed moment

Go deeper: Full Axios coverage

33 mins ago - Sports

Simone Biles pulls out of Olympic floor finals event

Photo: LOIC VENANCE/AFP via Getty Images

Simone Biles will not be competing in the Olympic floor exercise event to prioritize her mental well-being, USA Gymnastics announced Sunday morning local time.

What's happening: "Simone has withdrawn from the event final for floor and will make a decision on beam later this week," USA Gymnastics said in a statement. "Either way, we’re all behind you, Simone."

41 mins ago - Sports

U.S. wins gold in men's 4x100-meter medley relay

USA's Ryan Murphy (L) and USA's Caeleb Dressel celebrate winning the final of the men's 4x100m medley relay swimming event during the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games at the Tokyo Aquatics Centre in Tokyo on Sunday. Photo: Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images

Team USA win the gold medal in the men's 4x100-meter medley relay, setting a new world record in the process on Sunday morning local time.

Driving the news: American Caeleb Dressel won his fifth Tokyo Games gold medal during the event.