Get the latest market trends in your inbox

Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with the Axios Markets newsletter. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Minneapolis-St. Paul

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa-St. Petersburg news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa-St. Petersburg

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

Around the world, carmakers, cities and whole nations are describing a new era in which we will no longer drive ourselves, but glide hands-free along electronic highways into futuristic cities. There's just one problem: Humans are still a lot smarter than even the smartest cars — and are still babysitting them every step of the way.

Why it matters: Although human error accounts for many accidents on the road today, people are generally good at managing the demands of driving. To fulfill their ultimate promise of transforming how we build cities and move people and goods — saving lives in the process — autonomous vehicles will have to be even better drivers than people.

"Driving is the most complex activity that most adults engage in on a regular basis," says Carnegie Mellon University's Raj Rajkumar, a pioneer in developing self-driving car technology. "Just because we do it doesn't mean we can teach computers to easily do it. It will be many more years for full automation."

For humans, driving requires the brain to integrate constantly changing information from its sensory, motor and cognitive systems, all in real time.

  • We dart our eyes between mirrors and decipher the difference between a tree's shadow on the road and a fallen branch obstructing it.
  • We draw on our memory of the thousand previous times we took that left turn, perform calculus about how far away a red light is, and interpret another driver's gestures to decide how much to push the gas or hit the brake.
  • Without thinking about it, humans drive differently on a university campus, on the main shopping drag nearby, and in a beach town half an hour away, said Melissa Cefkin, an anthropologist who works on autonomous driving at Nissan.

"What’s needed in your brain? Everything," says Elizabeth Walshe, a cognitive neuroscientist at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia who is using neuroimaging to try to determine how the brain combines information while people drive.

  • "There are all of these subtasks within the task of driving and then this unpredictable environment."
  • Humans use intuition to adapt to tiny changes in the world around them: When a ball rolls in front of our car, we intuitively scan for a child running after it.
  • It's a crucial skill computers currently lack.

Today, autonomous vehicles use a multitude of sensors — including high-definition cameras, radar, and lidar, which uses lasers to map out the surroundings — plus extremely detailed maps to approximate the way humans perceive the world as they drive.

  • They can detect weather conditions (even though severe snow, rain and fog are still hurdles), congestion and construction.
  • Computer systems are still learning how to complete the instantaneous connect-the-dots puzzles that our brains perform automatically.

Between the lines: These challenges aren't halting any of the work. Advances in artificial intelligence generally come from three sources:

  1. More data is paramount for deep learning, the AI technique that powers most autonomous driving today. Companies build data stores by driving millions of miles with cameras and sensors to "teach" the algorithms how to handle myriad situations.
  2. Better computers can help cars make split-second decisions. A Nvidia researcher estimated that it can take more than a thousand specialized, top-of-the-line computers just under a week to train a 125-vehicle fleet to drive — a process that repeats often as engineers experiment.
  3. Smarter algorithms will help self-driving cars avoid lapses in judgment. Deep learning can be "brittle," getting confused by a situation slightly different than what it’s used to, like a stop sign with stickers on it. So some are experimenting with combining rule-based learning with pattern-matching deep learning.

The bottom line: In the past decade, the industry has gone from zero to thousands of self-driving cars on the road and real autonomy within sight.

Go deeper: Self-driving cars head toward an AI roadblock (The Verge)

Read more stories like this in our new weekly Axios Autonomous Vehicles newsletter. Sign up here.

Go deeper

Biden plans to ask public to wear masks for first 100 days in office

Joe Biden. Photo: Mark Makela/Gettu Images

President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris sat down with CNN on Thursday for their first joint interview since the election.

The big picture: In the hour-long segment, the twosome laid out plans for responding to the pandemic, jump-starting the economy and managing the transition of power, among other priorities.

The quick FCC fix that would get more students online

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

As the pandemic forces students out of school, broadband deployment programs aren't going to move fast enough to help families in immediate need of better internet access. But Democrats at the Federal Communications Commission say the incoming Biden administration could put a dent in that digital divide with one fast policy change.

State of play: An existing FCC program known as E-rate provides up to $4 billion for broadband at schools, but Republican FCC chairman Ajit Pai has resisted modifying the program during the pandemic to provide help connecting students at home.

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

America's hidden depression

Biden introduces his pick for Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, on Dec. 1. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

President-elect Biden faces a fragile recovery that could easily fall apart, as the economy remains in worse shape than most people think.

Why it matters: There is a recovery happening. But it's helping some people immensely and others not at all. And it's that second part that poses a massive risk to the Biden-Harris administration's chance of success.

Get Axios AM in your inbox

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!