National

Several U.S. states were under threat from more extreme weather overnight, as heavy rains in Southern California caused flooding and mudslides — triggering mandatory evacuation orders and sparking rescue operations Tuesday.

Threat level: A "rapidly strengthening storm system" was set to generate high winds from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest, with gusts "up to and in excess of 75 mph in some areas," per the National Weather Service. The Southern and Central Plains face "abnormally high temperatures" and the threat of wildfires, the NWS said.

What's happening: Heavy rains from a moderately strong atmospheric river event saw several rescue operations launched along the swollen Los Angeles River on Tuesday, after several Orange County residents became trapped by mudslides, per the Los Angeles Times.

Evacuation orders were issued for several communities in O.C., as mudslides and flooding threatened areas scarred by wildfires, the Orange County Register reports.

While evacuation orders were lifted late Tuesday, firefighters continued to patrol the area overnight, the Orange County Fire Authority said.

What to watch: High wind watches and warnings were in place from the Desert Southwest to the Upper Midwest, where widespread power outages were expected.

Days after the deadly tornadoes that pummeled the Central and Southern U.S., the NWS warned there could be more twisters in the new storm system, with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of southern Minnesota and northern Iowa, effective Wednesday through Thursday.

Winter storm watches, warnings and advisories were in effect from the West Coast through the Rockies, with widespread heavy snowfall forecast to persist over the western U.S. through Thursday.

By the numbers: More than a foot of snow was set to accumulate in the mountain ranges of the Central Great Basin and Northern and Central Rockies overnight.

Another round of heavy snow was set to hit the Sierra Nevada and neighboring Cascades Wednesday afternoon, with snowfall accumulations of 8-12 inches expected.

Meanwhile, "record breaking heat" was likely to impact the Central and Eastern U.S. through Thursday, the NWS said.

Unseasonably warm weather, strong winds, extremely dry fuels and low relative humidity levels were set to strike the Central and Southern Plains over the next few days, "producing highly favorable conditions for the spread of wildfires," according to the weather service.

The NWS said much of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles faced a "Critical Risk of Fire Weather" through Wednesday morning.

Context: Climate change is altering the environment and increasing the odds of extreme weather events, per Axios' Andrew Freedman.

Storm slams Southern California as Central U.S. faces winds, fire threat

California firefighters were patrolling parts of Orange County overnight as mudslides and flooding threatened areas scarred by wildfires.

 Snow covers Gorman on Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2021 as a cold storm passing through Southern California. 

Snow covers Gorman during a storm in Southern California on Tuesday. Photo: Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

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The Kentucky Division of Occupational Safety and Health Compliance will investigate Mayfield Consumer Products after tornados ravaged Mayfield, Ky., and killed at least eight of its factory workers over the weekend, Gov. Andy Beshear (D) said Tuesday.

Why it matters: An investigation is launched whenever a worker dies on the job, but multiple employees have told news outlets they were warned they'd be fired if they left their shifts early as the tornado approached.

The candle manufacturing company has denied all allegations.

"It shouldn’t suggest that there was any wrongdoing," Beshear said about the probe at a press conference. 

"But what it should give people confidence in, is that we’ll get to the bottom of what happened."

Kentucky to investigate candle factory after tornados kill 8 workers

Multiple employees told news outlets they were warned they'd be fired if they left their shifts early.

Emergency workers search through what is left of the Mayfield Consumer Products candle factory after it was destroyed by a tornado in Mayfield, Ky., on Dec. 11. Photo: John Amis/AFP via Getty Images

Kentucky

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The death toll from last weekend's tornadoes and storms that hit six U.S. states increased to 88 Monday — including 74 in Kentucky, per AP.

The latest: President Biden on Monday night declared a major disaster in Tennessee and issued an emergency declaration in Illinois, along with orders for federal assistance to support recovery efforts in the states, one day after declaring a major disaster in Kentucky.

A National Weather Service official in Paducah told CNN a tornado that tore through western Kentucky was "on the ground continuously for at least 128 miles."

What they're saying: Beshear said at an news briefing Tuesday the ages of the victims ranged from 2 months to 98 years and that at least 12 were children.

On Monday, Beshear warned that with "this amount of damage and rubble, it may be a week or even more before we have a final count on the number of lost lives."

He added that several people were unaccounted for, but rescue crews and authorities were working to find more information on them. 

"The people of western Kentucky have gone through an unspeakable trauma," Beshear said Monday morning.

The big picture: Tornadoes were also reported in Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, but Kentucky was particularly badly hit.

Nearly 24,000 customers were still without power in Kentucky Monday afternoon, per the tracking service poweroutage.us. Officials warned it could be weeks or months before service is restored to the hardest-hit areas.

Beshear had warned the death toll from the tornadoes could exceed 100 following concerns that 110 people were in a candle manufacturing factory when a tornado hit.

By Monday evening, all workers who were inside the factory had been accounted for, a Mayfield Consumer Products spokesperson told Axios' Shawna Chen. Eight people were confirmed dead and 102 survived, the company said. Beshear said Monday that officials are working to verify the company's report. 

Meanwhile, a tornado that struck an Amazon warehouse in Edwardsville, Illinois, on Friday night resulted in the deaths of at least six people after a large part of the building collapsed, per the New York Times.

Four other storm-related deaths were reported in Tennessee, at least two people were killed in Arkansas and two others in Missouri, AP notes.

At least 14 people had died from tornadoes this year until these events, per the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

What to watch: The National Weather Service in Paducah, Ky., issued a statement Sunday saying the damage was still being assessed. But the damage in several places was at least an EF-3 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which measures the intensity of tornadoes. 

That means there's been severe damage from estimated wind speeds of at least 136-165 mph.

The NWS said initial estimates for the area from Cayce, Ky., to around Beaver Dam, Ky., were that it was hit by an EF-4 tornado — meaning there's "devastating damage."

How to help tornado victims in Kentucky and other states

In photos: Before and after images show scale of tornado damage

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout. 

Tornadoes death toll rises to 88, including 74 killed in Kentucky

"It may be a week or even more before we have a final count on the number of lost lives," Gov. Beshear said.

An aerial view of a neighborhood in Mayfield, Kentucky, on Dec. 14.

An aerial view of a neighborhood in Mayfield, Kentucky, on Dec. 14. Photo: Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images

Tornadoes

 A Teddy Bear sits among the remains of what where once houses after extreme weather hit the area, in Bowling Green, Kentucky on December 13.

Mayfield Consumer Products says they have accounted for all 110 workers who were inside its candle factory during the deadly tornado over the weekend, a spokesperson confirmed Monday.

Driving the news: 102 workers survived the catastrophe, which crushed the entire factory into rubble, and eight people have been confirmed dead. The tornados has killed at least 74 across the state as of Monday.

What they're saying: "We are relieved the number of those deceased is far lower than originally expected," spokesperson Bob Ferguson told Axios. 

"We continue to be heartbroken over the loss and the injuries that happened. And we're working hard to help the families of those who died and those who were injured."

He categorically denied a Monday report from NBC News in which at least four workers said they were warned they'd be fired if they left their shifts early as the tornado approached.

The company has set up support for employees and their families, including grief counselors, financial assistance and transportation, Ferguson added.

The big picture: Gov. Andy Beshear (D) has warned that the death toll from the tornado may exceed 100, calling it "the worst, most devastating, most deadly tornado event" in the state's history.

President Biden has issued an emergency declaration in Kentucky and ordered federal assistance. He will travel to Kentucky on Wednesday to survey the damage.

Go deeper: How to help tornado victims in Kentucky and other states

All 110 Kentucky candle factory workers accounted for after deadly tornado

102 workers survived the catastrophe, which crushed the entire factory into rubble, and eight people have been confirmed dead.

Photo of a person standing on crushed rubble surveying the damage to what was once a factory

Search are rescue efforts are underway at Mayfield Consumer Products, a candle factory. Photo: Ryan C. Hermens/Lexington Herald-Leader/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

More than 70 people have died, towns "are gone," and recovery efforts will likely "take years."

The big picture: The tornadoes and storms that ripped through western Kentucky and five other states Friday night into Saturday left a trail of destruction and grieving communities. As those areas sort through the devastation and begin to clean up and rebuild, here's a list of ways you can help. 

Team Western Kentucky Tornado Relief Fund: Kentucky set up a relief fund to help those affected by tornadoes. As of Monday morning, more than $4 million has been raised, according Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), who said the fund's first expenditures will include up to $5,000 in funeral and burial expenses for families who lost loved ones. 

Western KY Red Cross Disaster Relief: The Red Cross, which "shelters, feeds and provides emotional support to victims of disasters" and "supplies about 40 percent of the nation's blood" has set up a fund to help those in need in western Kentucky. 

United Way of Kentucky is collecting monetary donations "to support immediate needs and long-term recovery for impacted communities."

Western Kentucky Toy Drive: "Make this season a little easier for those who are hurting by donating a toy, book or gift card to bring them some hope and joy during the holidays," Kentucky first lady Britainy Beshear said Monday. People can visit drop-off sites across the state or mail items to KY Venues. 

CARE, an international humanitarian organization, is accepting donations to get affected Kentucky "families food, water, and emergency cash vouchers."

International Medical Corps says it's "working with local agencies and partners to provide such assistance as temporary shelters, generators, medical supplies and equipment, and hygiene items."

The Salvation Army is collecting monetary donations and goods, including food and clothing to help storm victims across affected areas. 

Several local organizations in affected states, including Kentucky, Arkansas and Illinois are accepting monetary and other donations. 

The Red Cross is encouraging people to give blood. The organization said it has provided hundreds of blood products to hospitals in response to the tornadoes and will send additional supplies as needed. Find a blood drive near you. 

Those in Kentucky can also check out kybloodcenter.org. 

If you're in or willing to travel to Kentucky, Beshear said Monday that the state is looking for volunteers to help staff state park locations that are housing people who have lost their homes. Contact Kentucky State Parks for details. 

If you want to volunteer with cleanup efforts in western Kentucky, you can fill out a Kentucky Division of Emergency Management survey or contact Kentucky State Police. 

Quad State Tornado Found Items Facebook group: If you live in or near areas hit by the storms and you've found photos or other items that may belong to affected families, list them in this Facebook group. One photo from a family in tornado-hit Dawson's Springs, Kentucky, was found nearly 130 miles away in New Albany, Indiana, per AP.  

Be smart: Before donating to any organization you're not familiar with, check out their profiles and rankings on sites like GuideStar and Charity Navigator. 

Tornado outbreak offers a grim climate warning

Biden approves emergency declaration after "one of the largest tornado outbreaks in our history"

🎧 The deadliest December tornado outbreak on record 

Editor's note: This screen has been updated with additional details on the death toll. 

More than 70 people died, towns "are gone," and recovery efforts will likely "take years."

Marty James (L), 59, and a neighbor stand in front of his house in Mayfield, Kentucky, on December 12, 2021 after it was destroyed by a tornado. 

Destruction after the tornado swept through Mayfield, Kentucky. Photo: Cyril Julien/AFP via Getty Images

Axios Generate

The deadly tornado rampage across a six-state region Friday night into Saturday bears the hallmarks of climate change-related trends that scientists have been studying more closely in recent years.

Why it matters: Climate change is altering the environment in which tornadoes form in ways that raise the odds of sparking dangerous severe weather outbreaks across the South and Mid-South, particularly during the fall and winter when the jet stream dives toward the region. 

The weekend outbreak illustrates an extreme scenario of what can happen when all the ingredients that cause devastating tornadoes come together in spades. These include a record warm, humid air mass and powerful winds that shift in speed/direction with height, which is known as wind shear. 

But the attribution of individual outbreaks, and to some extent overall trends, is trickier with tornadoes, researchers say, since they are small-scale phenomena when compared to other extreme events such as heat waves. 

Increasingly, though, climate change clues are emerging, and they're not encouraging.

Tornado risk is increasing in the Mid-South and Southeast compared to the Plains states, and tornado occurrence is becoming more variable from year to year. A new study shows that as temperatures increase, so do key ingredients for severe weather outbreaks.

The big picture: The latest outbreak stands apart from anything previously seen during the month of December. In some respects, what occurred was worse than anything that came before it, no matter what month you look at. 

The supercell thunderstorm that tracked for more than 250 miles from Arkansas into Kentucky spawned either a single tornado or family of twisters that may have broken the record for the longest tornado path length in U.S. history. 

That storm, feasting off an air mass that more closely resembled April or May than December, catapulted debris 30,000 feet into the air. Some rained down from the sky more than 100 miles away. 

The storms were the deadliest December tornado outbreak on record. If the Mayfield tornado is rated as an EF-5 on the tornado damage scale, it will be one of just three such high-end twisters to occur in December. 

Context: Victor Gensini, a meteorology professor at Northern Illinois University, said he woke up Friday morning to a weather map that looked more like spring than December. 

A record warm air mass was in place across the Southeast and humidity was high. Both act as fuel for severe weather.

The warmth and humidity were boosted by strong winds blowing north from the unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Gulf waters are running several degrees above average for this time of year.

In Memphis, Tennessee, the high on Friday was 80°F, a record high and 25°F above average for the date. The heat played a critical role in fueling the disaster. 

So too did powerful mid and upper-level winds that were blowing in different directions with height, causing thunderstorms to spin like a top. 

Climate studies show that shear may decrease some as the world warms, but that warm, moist and unstable environments will become more common. It's when these ingredients overlap that you get a record-shattering event, and for tornadoes, this occurs most frequently in the Mid-South and South during fall and winter. 

"The shear is almost always there in the cool season, it's the instability that you don’t have," Gensini said.

Change in favorable tornado days between 1979 and 2020, in days per decade. 

Change in favorable tornado days between 1979 and 2020, in days per decade. Image: Victor Gensini

Between the lines: Tornado trends, such as a shift in their geographic distribution, and increased variability from year to year, are what scientists expect to see in a warming world, according to Gensini.

Projections show an increase in major outbreaks in the mid-South and Southeast in particular, he said. 

Harold Brooks, senior scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Oklahoma, who also studies tornadoes and climate change, told Axios that the increase in days with favorable conditions for tornadoes in the South and Southeast already stands out as a climate-related signal. 

Gensini compared tornado attribution today to the steroids era of baseball. Pinning an individual home run on steroid use is difficult, he said, but in the aggregate the trends are evident. 

He said the right question to ask now may be whether anyone can prove that climate change is not influencing tornadoes and the environment in which they form. 

What's next: The heartbreaking devastation that played out over the weekend may be a preview of what's to come as favorable conditions for strong Southern tornadoes overlap more with sprawling communities that lack the strict building codes present in some historically tornado-prone states. 

"What we’re going to see is more of these disasters," Gensini said. 

Powerful tornadoes may be more likely in the South and Southeast as the climate keeps warming.

Tornado damage in Mayfield, Kentucky on Dec. 12, 2021.

An aerial photo shows damage as cleanup efforts continue Dec. 12 after a tornado hit Mayfield, Ky. Photo: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

A potentially epic December heat wave is set to blanket much of the contiguous U.S. over the next two weeks, potentially leading several cities and states to set records for the warmest first month of winter on record. 

The big picture: In a major pattern shift, the jet stream is poised to dive south toward the western U.S., bringing much-needed rains and mountain snows to a parched California and other western states. But to the east of this jet stream dip, or trough, a potentially record strong ridge of high pressure is projected to set up over the Central U.S. 

This ridge will be responsible for the record warmth, but it's in keeping with trends from human-caused climate change. 

The details: December has already been unusually mild in many areas, with Denver and Salt Lake City recording their latest measurable snowfalls on record, and the Houston area tying its hottest recorded temperatures seen for the month on Thursday, when highs reached the mid-to-upper 80s. 

The warm weather looks to build starting early next week in the Plains, South Central states, and Gulf Coastal region. The highest temperatures compared to average are likely in the eastern Plains on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, with colder air not projected to start pouring in from Canada until Christmas or soon after. Even then, the East Coast is still likely to be unusually mild.

There is virtually zero chance of a white Christmas in cities including St. Louis, Kansas City, Columbus, New York City, Boston, Washington, D.C., and points south.

According to the National Weather Service, some areas may see temperatures running 20°F to 40°F above average for this time of year, as the record strong area of high pressure builds aloft. This high will ensure plenty of sun, sinking air, which helps to increase temperatures through compression. 

The clockwise flow of air around the high pressure area will bring an airflow from the southwest, a mild direction. 

Map showing the huge area of unusually high pressure and warm air aloft (red) on Dec. 15, 2021.

Map showing the large area of unusually warm air associated with the strong area of high pressure aloft, located east of the Rockies in mid-December. (Weatherbell.com)

The entire U.S. east of the Rockies look to be much milder than average on Dec. 15, with the greatest anomalies predicted for Iowa, eastern Nebraska, Missouri, parts of Illinois, Oklahoma, Kansas and Indiana. 

As this time period gets closer, the forecast is likely to be refined, however, since there is some uncertainty about how far north temperatures in the 60s and 70s will progress. 

Two areas that may miss out on the warmth are the Upper Midwest and Northeast, where cold air may continue to filter in from Canada.

Threat level: The intensity of the heat wave is somewhat uncertain, but multiple computer models depict a weather pattern that could produce an event of historic proportions, with temperatures in the 90s along the Gulf Coast, and possibly near 80°F surprisingly far north in the Plains states.

While a December warm spell might be a welcome occurrence for some, extreme weather events can disrupt ecosystems and infrastructure.  

Context: There is also climate change context to this heat wave. Winter is the most rapidly warming season in the U.S. (meteorologists define winter as the months of December, January and February). 

In Des Moines, for example, the average winter temperature has increased by 4.5°F since 1970, with 11 more days with highs above a particular threshold, according to data from the climate research and communications organization Climate Central. 

And in Minneapolis-St. Paul, the average winter temperature has increased by 5.7°F since 1970.

The world is headed for another top 10 warmest year in 2021, despite the presence of a cooling La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

Additionally, meteorologists have observed increasing instances of unusually strong, stubborn areas of high pressure aloft in recent years that have been associated with extreme weather events, including heat waves.

Yes, but: There is some extreme cold to be found when one zooms out to look at the big picture, particularly in the Arctic, where Alaskans have been shivering through one of their coldest starts to winter in years. 

Meanwhile in Siberia, temperatures of minus-50°F have been recorded in some of the same areas that saw record heat and wildfires last summer. Some of these fires are still smoldering under the snow pack and could reemerge during the spring. 

Lower 48 states could have warmest December on record

A white Christmas looks unlikely for many cities, including St. Louis, Kansas City, Columbus and New York City.

Temperature departures from average predicted by the National Weather Service on Dec. 15, 2021.

The National Weather Service's forecast for temperature anomalies on Dec. 15, 2021. (Weatherbell.com)

The Lower 48 states have seen record-shattering warmth so far this December, with temperatures running as high as 35°F above average for this time of year. The warmth has been so pronounced that during the weekend, brush fires broke out in a snowless, unusually mild Denver metro area. 

The big picture: The jet stream, which is a river of air that rides at about 30,000 feet along the temperature contrast between air masses, steering storms as it goes, has been stuck in a position well north of the contiguous U.S., keeping storms and cold weather at bay. 

The prevailing jet stream has also helped direct a series of potent atmospheric river storms into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, where flooding devastated communities like Abbotsford, to the east-northeast of Vancouver. 

Yes, but: There is a cold side to the jet stream, and it's been bottling up the frigid air in Alaska and parts of northern Canada. Some locations in Alaska were at least 20°F colder than average during November, with unusually cold temperatures forecast to continue through much of December. 

According to the National Weather Service, several locations in southwest Alaska saw a top 5 coldest November. 

This included King Salmon, where the average temperature for the month was just 4°F, setting a monthly record, and the aptly-named Cold Bay, which also set a record for its coldest November.  

On Dec. 4, a weather observer in Chicken, Alaska, recorded a temperature of minus-52°F. 

To make things even more strange, a "Kona low" stalled northwest of Kauai has brought a surge of tropical moisture to Hawaii, which is falling in the form of wind-blown snow at the state's highest mountain peaks, including Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea. 

This has meant that the longest duration blizzard warnings in effect for the past three days in the U.S. have been outside the Lower 48, in Hawaii and Alaska. 

The bigger weather story in Hawaii, however, has been flash flooding at lower elevations, which is threatening heavily populated areas.

Context: Winter is the fastest-warming season across the U.S., and while a climate change trigger for the contiguous U.S. warmth has not yet been identified, the overall temperature trend does make such events more likely. 

So too do cycles of natural climate variability, such as La Niña in the tropical Pacific, the intensity of the polar vortex, which is an ultra-cold low pressure area swirling about the North Pole at high altitudes, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. 

Right now, all the climate variability cycles, from the Pacific to the North Atlantic, favor unusually mild winter weather during December across the Lower 48 states. 

By the numbers: Four states tied or broke records for their hottest December temperatures: Washington, Montana, Wyoming and North Dakota, according to weather historian Maximiliano Herrera.

During the seven days ending on Dec. 3, there were 2,657 daily record highs set or tied in the U.S., compared to just six daily record lows, according to a NOAA database.

On Dec. 1, British Columbia saw its highest temperature ever recorded during the month of December, with a high of 72.5°F recorded in Penticton, which is 250 miles east of Vancouver. This tied the country's all-time record high for the month.

In Denver, Colorado, which often picks up heavy snow at the start and end of winter, it had not yet snowed as of Monday morning, setting a record for the latest measurable snowfall. 

The temperature on Sunday was in the mid-70s. Combined with strong winds and dry air, this sparked multiple fires in the area, which is almost unheard of for this time of the year. The region has since cooled down considerably, though no snow has fallen, meaning the fire danger could flare up again. 

What's next: Computer models are nearly unanimous in projecting a warmer than average December across the Lower 48 states, along with continued cold in Alaska. 

Looking beyond this month, there are hints this pattern may continue if the polar vortex stays strong, which would keep Arctic air bottled up in the Far North. 

Stuck jet stream brings blowtorch December in Lower 48, frigid Alaska

Looking beyond this month, there are hints this pattern may continue if the polar vortex stays strong.

Map showing the odds of above average, average and below average temperatures across the U.S.

Short-term climate outlook for Dec. 13-19, 2021, from the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA. (NOAA/CPC)

A map showing the 8-14 day outlook for above and below normal temperatures 

The National Weather Service issued a rare blizzard warning for the Big Island Summits in Hawaii on Friday. 

Driving the news: There are no other winter storm warnings or blizzard warnings in the continental U.S at the moment. 

Our thought bubble: Snow is common at the highest elevations of the Big Island, and the Weather Service issues winter storm and blizzard warnings for higher elevations due to the presence of scientists who work there studying space, the atmosphere and other fields, per Axios' Andrew Freedman. 

But such warnings are rare, however, and indicate the presence of a significant storm that is likely ruining the vacation plans of many travelers at sea level, where heavy rain is likely, 

The warning will begin at 6 P.M. Hawaii Standard Time (HST) and continue to 6 A.M. 

There is an expected 12 inches or more of snow with winds over 100 mph. 

The warning is for the Big Island Summits, which include Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea.

The big picture: Snow falls at Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea whenever there is a cold front or heavy rains due to the high elevation of both summits, per the Weather Channel.   

What they're saying: "Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods of zero visibility," the warning reads. 

Blizzard warning issued in Hawaii

Such warnings are rare and indicate the presence of a significant storm that is likely ruining the vacation plans for those at sea level.

Snow on Mauna Kea in 1999. Photo: Joe McNally/Getty Images

Hawaii

Across a large swath of Europe, from Scandinavia to the U.K. south into France, Spain and Germany, temperatures have been unusually cold as winter gets underway, and they're about to plunge further.

Why it matters: The cold snap is the opposite of what policymakers have been hoping for, given that Europe entered the 2021-22 winter season with the least amount of natural gas on hand in at least a decade.

The colder-than-average weather has further raised energy prices and put a spotlight on the flow of Russian natural gas into Western Europe. 

Details: Scandinavia lies at the epicenter of the cold snap, with temperatures dipping as low as -35°F in Sweden. Computer model projections show the cold intensifying into the weekend, with reinforcing waves spilling south and west, affecting more heavily populated countries. 

Yes, but: There are some signs, however, that by mid-to-late December, temperatures will moderate back to seasonable levels.

Context: According to S&P, citing data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, gas storage sites in the EU and U.K. were just 68.5% full as of Nov. 29, compared with a level of almost 89% at the same time last year. 

What they're saying: "Given that the overall level of storage was low going into the withdrawal season, this is a really bad sign for Europe," Nikos Tsafos of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told Axios via email. "A mild winter has been our best hope to avoid a tight situation this winter." 

Winter starts frigid in western Europe amid energy crunch

Temperatures have been unusually cold as winter gets underway, and they're about to plunge further.

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