Photo illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios; Photo: David Becker/Getty Images
A second Trump presidency would mean seismic changes to the IRA and weakened climate regulations across government.
Why it matters: Donald Trump's GOP increasingly shares some common ground with President Biden on tariffs and industrial policy, but this election is seen as generationally important for climate and energy.
- "I think this is the biggest climate choice in front of us in decades," Sen. Brian Schatz told reporters.
Driving the news: In the opening weeks of a second Trump administration, we'd expect EPA to start working to undo and rewrite its power plant greenhouse gas rules and auto emission regs.
- Trump officials would likely move to reimpose their NEPA implementing regs, which the Biden administration changed to much GOP criticism.
- And they'd start approving LNG export projects again, pending any logistical hurdles with DOE's study of the issue.
- On the Hill, Republicans told Axios that the push for "permitting reform" would only intensify.
Internationally, Trump's campaign has said he'd again withdraw from the Paris climate agreement.
- He's also promising sprawling tariffs on China and other countries that would hit energy supply chains even more aggressively than Biden.
- Here's a summary from Trump ally Josh Hawley: "He ought to get rid of the stupid electric vehicle mandates, which are just decimating our auto industry, and then he ought to ratchet up tariffs."
Zoom in: A tax bill will move next year as the original Trump tax cuts expire, and there's a big Republican appetite to nix the IRA's EV tax credits and methane emissions fee.
- A GOP sweep scenario also means attempts to cap, if not fully repeal, credits for wind and solar.
Between the lines: IRA implementation would look completely different in a Trump administration.
- Agencies like DOE's loan programs office could get appointees who are stingy or intentionally slow to send money out the door.
- And Treasury would likely move to put additional anti-China safeguards on the 45X manufacturing credit and 30D EV incentive, an idea lawmakers from both parties are already discussing.
What they're saying: Trump didn't answer directly when asked by Bloomberg whether he'd undo the IRA, instead referring to it as "the green new scam" and going on a Trumpian tangent about wind and solar.
- But Sen. Kevin Cramer, a Trump confidant, told Axios that he thinks Republicans would keep some parts of the law intact.
- "Donald Trump has always been open to the type of investments that build out infrastructure, that grow the economy. And certainly if there are incentives that grow energy infrastructure, I think he'd want to continue with those."
Our thought bubble: In many ways, Trump governed like a conventional Republican last time around — tax cuts, weaker regulations and conservative judicial appointments.
- But there are some real unanswered questions moving forward about the GOP's relationship with trade policy and what Trump's wing of the party might do about its stated commitments to reindustrializing America.
- "Republicans' traditional view of the role of government and the role of markets has come unmoored, and we don't know what the relationship between the next generation of Republicans and business is going to be," said Alex Flint, a former Senate GOP staffer and executive director of the Alliance for Market Solutions.
