The really uncomfortable question for Speaker Mike Johnson tomorrow isn't whether he can pass the stopgap. It's how many votes he'll need to borrow from Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the Democrat who wants his job.

Why it matters: It used to be unthinkable for a GOP speaker to call a vote in which they couldn't win a majority of the majority. But Johnson has failed that test twice this year.

• This time around, GOP leaders are privately optimistic they can meet the bar of 111 of their 220 members voting to avoid a government shutdown.
• They'll need closer to 290 total votes to pass the stopgap with a two-thirds majority, since they're moving it under suspension of the rules.

Johnson is working the edges: He promised his members he won't cave to an omnibus spending deal in December. He even ruled out the "minibus" approach, with multiple bills packaged together.

• Count us as skeptical, but he's telling Republicans what they want to hear.
• Don't look for Senate Democrats to rush to pass individual spending bills in the post-election lame duck session, when they'd rather be confirming judges.

🚨NEWS: House Democratic leaders expect an overwhelming majority of their members to vote "yes" tomorrow.

• "I think that we're going to support it," said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

The bottom line: For Jeffries, the vote is an all-too-familiar position.

• The New York Democrat has repeatedly found himself dictating the fate of Republican legislation over the last two years.
• "Congress hasn't passed much, but what has passed has had to have substantial Democratic support," said Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), who added of a potential Speaker Jeffries: "He's ready."

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— Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke

Democratic leaders are telling their party's biggest donors that keeping Montana's Senate seat blue is a real challenge. However, they are planning to go on offense in Florida to retain their majority, we have learned.

• Florida and Texas "are real and we hope to get resources into those states," DSCC chair Sen. Gary Peters told us today.

Why it matters: Without Montana, the math for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to keep his job gets very difficult.

• But Democrats are signaling they want to expand the playing field and be in a position to steal Republican seats in states like Florida. Yes, it's still red, but former President Trump isn't expected to win by double digits.
• They're also eyeing Texas, where a recent poll has Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) up by three points against Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

🚨NEWS: At a donor retreat over the weekend in Amelia Island, Florida, Peters and DSCC officials shared their view of the Senate landscape.

• Officials acknowledged Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is down in the polls, but party strategists still see a path for him to defy the odds and win, like Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) did in 2020.
• The intrigue: Republicans held their donor retreat just up the coast in Sea Island, Georgia, where the NRSC explained why they are eyeing a 52-seat majority.

What we're hearing: Democrats are contemplating a late blitz in the Florida Senate race, where GOP Sen. Rick Scott has a two-point lead over former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the latest public poll.

• While air time hasn't been officially booked, Democratic sources tell us they expect the DSCC to make a splash in Florida in the coming weeks.

The bottom line: From Labor Day to Election Day, Democrats have spent or reserved some $5.6 million in advertising in Florida, according to AdImpact.

• Over the same period, Republicans are at $4.4 million, but Scott's campaign likes to buy week to week, meaning it could pump more money into the race if it feels it's warranted.

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— Hans Nichols and Stephen Neukam

Here's the backstory on why Schumer was just able to announce a fast-track vote tomorrow on the funding bill: Republican senators emerged from their weekly lunch today ready to move it along.

• Schumer announced a unanimous consent agreement tonight, which sets up a vote after two hours of debate tomorrow. No amendments will be considered.

Why it matters: Lawmakers were eager to get home — especially those facing tight re-election races or whose states may be hit by the hurricane that's approaching the Southeast.

Zoom in: NRSC chair Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) led the charge against pushing for politically hot amendments that would delay the process, according to multiple sources familiar with what happened at lunch.

• Even some of the usuals who tend to embrace stalling tactics — such as Sens. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) — didn't object.
• One major concern raised: Giving vulnerable Democrats like Sens. Tester, Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Bob Casey (Pa.) free votes that could win them political points on amendments that won't pass anyway.

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— Stef Kight

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell gave a rare response to a Trump question today, saying, "I'm not a fan of tariffs" and "I'm more of a free trade kind of Republican."

• "They raise the prices for American consumers," McConnell told reporters when asked about Trump's expansive tariffs proposal.

Why it matters: We've told you for months that Trump's tariff plans could meet stiff opposition in the Senate.

• McConnell's just the tip of that spear.

— Stef Kight