Hakeem Jeffries prepares another bailout for Mike Johnson
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The really uncomfortable question for House Speaker Mike Johnson on Wednesday isn't whether he can pass a government spending stopgap. It's how many votes he'll need to borrow from Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the Democrat who wants his job.
Why it matters: It used to be unthinkable for a GOP speaker to call a vote in which they couldn't win a majority of the majority of their party members on a vote. But Johnson has failed that test twice this year.
- This time around, GOP leaders are privately optimistic they can meet the bar of 111 of their 220 members voting to avoid a government shutdown.
- They'll need closer to 290 total votes to pass the stopgap with a two-thirds majority, since they're moving it under suspension of the rules.
Johnson is working the edges: He promised his members he won't cave to an omnibus spending deal in December. He even ruled out the "minibus" approach, with multiple bills packaged together.
- Count us as skeptical, but he's telling Republicans what they want to hear.
- Don't look for Senate Democrats to rush to pass individual spending bills in the post-election lame-duck session, when they'd rather be confirming judges.
🚨NEWS: House Democratic leaders expect an overwhelming majority of their members to vote "yes" on Wednesday.
- "I think that we're going to support it," said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
Between the lines: For Jeffries, the vote is an all-too-familiar position.
- The New York Democrat has repeatedly found himself in the role of dictating the fate of Republican legislation over the last two years.
- Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), a member of Jeffries' leadership team, said the New Yorker has been "functionally exercising the kind of leadership it takes to get things through the House."
- "Congress hasn't passed much, but what has passed has had to have substantial Democratic support," said Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), who added of a potential Speaker Jeffries: "He's ready."
The bottom line: Should Johnson face a motion to vacate from one of his right-wing hardliners in retaliation for the spending bill, he can likely count on another Democratic rescue, numerous House Democrats told Axios.
- Even some progressives who reluctantly voted against Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's (R-Ga.) effort to oust Johnson in May said little has changed since then.
- Said another House Democrat: "I don't want to spend two weeks here fighting over the speaker."
Some lawmakers cautioned that, as with most key votes, Jeffries' word would be tantamount to law for the vast majority of House Democrats.
- "Johnson would need to have a conversation with Hakeem," said one senior House Democrat.
