GOP senators break with Trump on trade

The big picture: When asked if they supported the blanket 10% tariff on imports that Trump has floated, Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) both showed significant daylight with their party's standard-bearer.

• "There are ways that you can selectively use [tariffs] as a tool to achieve economic policy outcomes, but just uniform, across-the-board tariffs is not something I have been for in the past," said Thune, who is considered the frontrunner to replace McConnell.
• Cornyn, who is also running for GOP leader, described across-the-board tariffs as potentially "problematic."

Between the lines: Some senators suggested the former president ultimately could be convinced to soften his actual plan, with many expressing concerns about the inflationary effects of universal 10% tariffs.

• Cornyn said he thinks Trump is "demonstrating he believes that tariffs should be used to rebalance unfair trading relationships" for countries like China, an approach he generally supports.
• Trump, who imposed sweeping tariffs on China, the European Union and other countries during his first term, is eyeing a new global trade war with proposed levies of 60% or more on Chinese goods.
• Senators' answers at times were reminiscent of conversations during Trump's first run for president — that he should be taken seriously, not literally.

Zoom in: "I don't know if across-the-board, truly means across-the-board," Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) told Axios, saying she needs to explore the idea more and talk with Trump's advisers.

• "I know what he's stumping on, but I don't believe as a matter of policy that's exactly how we'd implement it," Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said.
• Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), a former Senate Commerce committee chair, told Axios he's listening, but "not convinced that's the best approach."
• Wicker added the former president is "gonna listen to people within his circle of advisers, and that includes people on both sides of that issue," noting Larry Kudlow, in particular, who has warned about inflationary impacts of Trump policies in the past.

Zoom out: Republicans have made it a cornerstone of their campaigns this year to slam President Biden for policies they argue spurred red-hot inflation.

• Now, Republican lawmakers are in the tricky position of heading home to meet constituents over the August recess with a candidate at the top of the ticket eyeing trade policies economists believe could trigger a new rise in consumer prices.

• "I think ultimately tariffs result in higher prices for consumers," Cornyn said.

The other side: "By cutting regulations and taxes and using the leverage of the United States to negotiate better trade deals around the world, President Trump built the strongest economy in American history," Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios in a statement.

• Leavitt went on to criticize Vice President Harris' "out of control spending" as part of the Biden administration, which she said "created the worst inflation crisis in generations."

What they're saying: NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) told Axios during an event at the Republican National Convention that he'd be "more inclined to do targeted type tariffs ... versus something that's just universal."

• Tillis also warned that "if all we did was across-the-board tariffs, it would have an inflationary impact" — though he said it was fine for Trump to send the message that tariffs can be used as a weapon, including against U.S. adversaries.

What to watch: Trump's choice of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate is another signal that he intends to move the Republican Party further away from its traditional free trade policies.

• Vance told CBS's Face the Nation in May that he supports "broad-based tariffs, especially on goods coming in from China," adding the U.S. needs "to protect American industries from all of the competition."