Scoop: Senate Democrats prepare Florida and Texas offensives
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Democratic leaders are telling their party's biggest donors that keeping Montana's Senate seat blue is a real challenge. However, they are planning to go on offense in Florida to retain their majority, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Without Montana, the math for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to keep his job gets very difficult.
- But Democrats are signaling they want to expand the playing field and be in a position to steal Republican seats in states like Florida. Yes, it's still red, but former President Trump isn't expected to win by double digits.
- They are also eyeing Texas, where a recent poll has Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) up by three points against Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).
- Florida and Texas "are real and we hope to get resources into those states," Sen. Gary Peters, the chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Axios on Tuesday.
Driving the news: At a donor retreat over the weekend in Amelia Island, Florida, Peters and DSCC officials shared their view of the Senate landscape.
- Attendees described the DSCC presentation as a clear-eyed and sobering overview of the cycle's most competitive races.
- Officials acknowledged Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is down in the polls, but party strategists still see a path for him to defy the odds and win, just like Sen. Susan Collins of Maine did on the Republican side in 2020.
- "It sounds like Gary Peters is thinking about abandoning Jon Tester," NRSC spokesperson Philip Letsou told Axios. "No matter what Democrats do, the NRSC will do whatever it takes to ensure Ted Cruz and Rick Scott defeat the radical liberals Chuck Schumer and his billionaire allies have propped up against them."
The intrigue: Republicans held their donor retreat just up the coast in Sea Island, Georgia, where the National Republican Senatorial Committee explained why they are eyeing a 52-seat majority.
- At both events, there was a mixture of hope and fear.
- In addition to Montana, there were concerns about Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) faces a tough re-election in a state Trump could carry by eight or nine percentage points.
- The most optimistic pitch the Democratic donors received was from Tennessee state Rep. Gloria Johnson, their party's nominee to defeat Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) in a race the Cook Political Report is rating a "solid R."
What we're hearing: Democrats are contemplating a late blitz in the Florida Senate race, where Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla) has just a two-point lead over former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the latest public poll.
- While air time hasn't been officially booked, Democratic sources tell us they expect the DSCC to make a splash in Florida in the coming weeks.
- From Labor Day to Election Day, Democrats have spent or reserved some $5.6 million in advertising in Florida, according to AdImpact.
- Over the same period, Republicans are at $4.4 million, but Scott's campaign likes to buy week to week, meaning they could pump more money into the race if they feel it's warranted.
