House Speaker Mike Johnson is on notice he might have to abort his government funding plan.

• At least five GOP lawmakers have indicated they are opposed to Johnson's six-month spending plan.
• "I've made it clear to [leadership] that I'll be a 'no' on the CR," said Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.).

Why it matters: Johnson has the most at stake if he quickly folds ahead of the Oct. 1 government funding deadline, so he's girding for a tough fight.

• "No one should worry — I believe we can get this job done," Johnson told us shortly after arriving at the Capitol today.

But going into tomorrow, Johnson is on course to lose on both GOP priorities for a funding stopgap. Democratic leaders are in no mood to help.

1) The SAVE Act: Johnson's proposal to attach a bill requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote looks like it's in danger.

• We've asked the five House Democrats who voted for the SAVE Act earlier this year how they plan to vote this time.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries made clear he views the SAVE Act as a "poison pill" that violates a past spending agreement with Republicans, a source told us.

2) How long to stopgap: Democrats are trying to stay united against Johnson's push to extend government stopgap funding into March 2025, when Republicans could control the Senate.

The big picture: We won't have a shutdown if ...

• The SAVE Act fails in the House, making it easier for Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to only negotiate over timing.
• House GOP frontliners show Johnson their teeth: "We don't know what Plan B and Plan C, what step two, step three, are," Biden-district Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) told Punchbowl News (membership required).
• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell helps Schumer get Republican votes to pass a clean stopgap on the agreed timeline.
• Defense hawks win out: Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), vying to succeed McConnell as GOP leader, told us leaving defense spending on "autopilot" for six months could be "problematic."

We'll have a shutdown if ...

• The SAVE Act passes the House and GOP hardliners persuade Johnson he should fear them more than a shutdown.
• Former President Trump wades in with demands on the SAVE Act, forcing Senate GOP leaders to play ball. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is a vocal supporter. Thune and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) — also vying to succeed McConnell — have signed on but are unlikely to support a shutdown over it.

Axios' Juliegrace Brufke, Andrew Solender and Stef Kight contributed to this story.

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Majority Leader Chuck Schumer spoke with White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and other officials Friday on how to accelerate the pace of judicial confirmations, we have learned.

Why it matters: Beating Trump four-year record on federal judge confirmations is personal for Schumer and President Biden.

• But Democrats have two challenges in surpassing Trump's mark: a clock that's ticking and a Senate that's functionally 50-50 on judicial nominations.
• Adding urgency: Schumer and Biden aides know they've got an uphill fight to control the Senate in 2025 — with no guarantee Democrats keep the White House.

Zoom in: Senate Democrats have confirmed 205 lifetime judges under the Biden administration. There are 21 nominees waiting for a floor vote, six waiting for a committee vote and nine awaiting a committee hearing.

• Senate Republicans confirmed 234 federal judges under the Trump administration.
• Democrats are proud that 62% of their confirmed judges are people of color and 64% are women. They have made a point to nominate lawyers with experience in civil rights, public defense and the labor movement.

The intrigue: Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) vowed in March not to support any judicial nominees that didn't have at least some GOP support.

• That forced Schumer to rely either on a Republican absence or a tie-breaking vote from Vice President Kamala Harris to achieve a majority.
• It's unclear if Harris will regularly leave the presidential campaign trail to come back to the Senate to cast any deciding votes until after the election.

The bottom line: "Exceeding the previous administration's four-year totals is certainly within reach," Phil Brest, the White House senior counsel in charge of nominations, told us.

• "Throughout the coming weeks, we will continue confirming the Biden-Harris administration's well-qualified judges and nominees," Schumer said in a letter to senators over the weekend.
• A spokesperson for Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told us Durbin will "continue holding nominations hearings and markups through the end of the Congress."

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On their first day back, candidates for the top two positions in Senate GOP leadership waffled over Trump's plan to require insurance companies to cover the cost of IVF.

• Thune: "I'm sure it comes from good intentions. ... I have to think about whether or not that's something that you would want to mandate on insurance companies."
• Cornyn: "We ought to have that discussion." When asked if he supported the idea, Cornyn said he supports an open debate and a vote.
• Scott told reporters he would take a look at the proposal, but then pointed to his separate IVF legislation to address high costs.
• John Barrasso: "We can talk about how funding works." He emphasized that "every Republican I know supports in vitro fertilization."

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