Mike Johnson’s shutdown strategy is crumbling
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
House Speaker Mike Johnson at the Capitol on Sept. 9, 2024. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Getty Images.
It's already clear that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is going to have a hard time securing the votes he needs to pass his chosen bill to avert a government shutdown.
Why it matters: Johnson will have little margin for error to pass the measure with his five-vote majority as he faces an internal revolt and top Democrats pressing their members to oppose it.
- Johnson's bill would keep the government funded at current levels for six months and includes a measure to crack down on non-citizen voting, known as the SAVE Act.
Driving the news: At least five House Republicans oppose the measure, with several others leaning against it, Axios has learned.
- Reps. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) told Axios they oppose the measure, with Mills saying he communicated his position to Johnson's whip team.
- Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said he is "leaning no," while Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas) said she is a "strong lean no."
- They join Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) in opposition. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) is undecided.
Zoom in: On the other end of the GOP's ideological spectrum, Johnson is also contending with pushback from moderates.
- They're worried that Johnson's party-line strategy risks a government shutdown just weeks before the election.
- One House Republican, speaking on condition of anonymity, said none of their fellow centrists "love" Johnson's approach but "most" will likely vote for the bill anyway.
Zoom out: Complicating matters further for Johnson, Democrats are trying to unify their members against the measure.
- House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) said during House Democrats' leadership meeting Monday that she will "whip hard" against the bill, according to a source familiar with her comments.
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) made clear he views the SAVE Act as a "poison pill," the source said.
What we're watching: A senior House Democrat told Axios they expect the whip team to work on the five Democrats who previously voted for the SAVE Act.
- They're Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), Don Davis (D-N.C.), Jared Golden (D-Maine), Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.).
- Democrats already have some help on that front: Peltola said in a statement she will be absent this week to honor the one-year anniversary of her husband's death, denying Johnson one gettable vote.
- Perez, asked how she plans to vote, declined to weigh in.
The bottom line: Even some House Republicans who plan to vote for the bill acknowledged that, should it pass, it will die a quick death at the hands of Senate Democrats, who want a 3-month CR without any policy riders.
- "Obviously, it's going to cause a conflict with the Senate," said Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.).
Axios' Juliegrace Brufke contributed reporting for this story.
