Stripe this morning announced a new employee tender offer that values the payments giant at $91.5 billion.

Why it matters: This will be used as a proof point by both venture capital optimists and pessimists, as industry sentiment gets increasingly bifurcated.

Catch up quick: Stripe has become the poster child for not wanting to eat its IPO vegetables, as a 15-year-old "startup" that remains defiantly agnostic about going public.

• It was valued at $95 billion during a 2021 fundraise, but then slashed its valuation to $50 billion in 2023 via a tender. Last year's tender price was $65 billion.

Optimist case: Look at that valuation growth! Almost back to the paint-fume days of 2021. Stripe didn't plateau or miss its window. It's just being prudently patient.

• It's not that unicorns aren't going public or being sold because they're unsuccessful, or rendered archaic by AI.
• In most cases it's about working diligently to grow back into their valuations, with plenty of VC dry powder available to cushion the delay.
• Liquidity will still come, likely in the second half of 2025, when the SEC relaxes some rules and the Magnificent 7 begin to buy. Meanwhile, expect first-half IPOs from companies like CoreWeave and Circle.

Pessimist case: Venture capital is a power-law business, and the model doesn't work if top companies like Stripe keep kicking the IPO can down the road.

• It's simply unsustainable to keep investing without returns, and at some point LPs will make good on their threats to stop making new commitments.
• It's true that some early VCs get the option to sell into tenders or secondary deals, but too often take the FOMO route in the belief that holding will better enable new dealflow and fundraising.
• You really think the second half of 2025 will be awash in IPOs? That's the same thing we've been hearing for over two years — always forecasting six months out without a payoff.

The bottom line: Stripe is a mirror for venture capital hopes and fears.

Seven & i (Tokyo: 3382), the owner of 7-Eleven, said that its founding family no longer is seeking to acquire the company for $58 billion, after failing to secure adequate financing.

Why it's the BFD: This will put pressure on the Japanese retailer to revisit a takeover offer from Canadian rival Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSE: ATD), the owner of Circle-K, although it still could opt to remain independent and pursue select divestitures.

• It also likely scraps the idea of an IPO for Seven & i's North American business, which would have been used to help finance the management buyout.

The bottom line: This is the second blockbuster Japanese M&A effort to fail in recent weeks, after automakers Honda and Nissan called off their potential tie-up.

• MrBeast (aka Jimmy Donaldson) is seeking to raise "a couple hundred million dollars" at a $5b valuation, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4kgCzzI

• Bitwise, a crypto-focused asset manager, raised $70m led by Electric Capital, with participation from MassMutual, Highland Capital, MIT Investment Management Co., Haun Ventures, ParaFi Capital, Khosla Ventures, General Catalyst, Blockchain Coinvestors, and Nikesh Arora. axios.link/4gWLWBR

• Shop Circle, a London-based provider of e-commerce software for brands, raised $60m in Series B funding. Nextalia Ventures led, and was joined by Endeavor Catalyst, along with existing investors such NFX, QED Investors, 645 Ventures, 3VC, and i80 Group. axios.link/41oKNgS

• Taktile, a New York-based automated business decision engine, raised $54m in Series B funding. Balderton Capital led, and was joined by insiders Index Ventures, Tiger Global, YC, Prosus Ventures, Visionaries Club, and Larry Summers. axios.link/4ihMR0Y

• Relay, a European end-to-end parcel delivery startup, raised $35m in Series A funding. Plural led, and was joined by Project A and Prologis Ventures. axios.link/4kkr0Yk

• Skylo, a Mountain View, Calif. direct-to-device satellite service, raised $30m. NGP Capital led, and was joined by Westly Group and insiders Intel Capital, BMW i Ventures, Samsung Catalyst Fund, and Next47. skylo.tech

• Unique, a Swiss AI platform for financial firms, raised $30m in Series A fujnding. CommerzVentures and DN Capital co-led, and were joined by insiders VI Partners and Pictet Group. axios.link/4gVph9b

🚑 Loyal, a developer of longevity drugs for dogs, raised $22m in Series B-2 funding from Valor Equity Partners and Collaborative Fund. loyal.com

🚑 Enveda, a Boulder, Colo., drug discovery startup that focuses on medicinal plants, raised $20m in Series C extension funding from Sanofi. enveda.com

🌎 Turing, a Boston water management and wastewater treatment software developer, raised $14m led by Safar Partners. theturingcompany.com

• Napo, a British pet insurance startup, raised a £12M Series B led by Mercia Ventures, with participation from DN Capital, Companion Fund, MTech Capital, and Helvetia Venture Fund. axios.link/4bjjTeI

• Anagram,, a New York-based provider of employee security training, raised $10m in Series A funding. Madrona led, and was joined by General Catalyst, Bloomberg Beta, Operator Partners, and Secure Octane. anagramsecurity.com

🚑 Charta Health, an SF-based medical billing and coding workflow startup, raised $8.1m in seed funding. Bain Capital Ventures led, and was joined by SV Angel, South Park Commons, SpringRock Ventures, and Refract Ventures. axios.link/4kmpqW7

• SkyMirr, a Melbourne, Fla.-based developer of IOT/RF tech, raised $7.4m in Series A funding led by Solyco Capital. skymirr.com

• Actual Veggies, a New York maker of veggie burgers, raised $7m in Series A funding. Relentless Consumer Partners led, and was joined by New Fare Partners. axios.link/437PLkt

• Vayu, a provider of B2B billing and revenue management, raised $7m in seed funding. Flint Capital and The Garage co-led, and were joined by Fresh.Fund and Secretchord.vc. axios.link/4bednGd

• Rune Technologies, an Arlington, Va.-based military logistics startup, raised $6.2m in seed funding. A16z led, and was joined by Point72 Ventures and XYZ Venture Capital. axios.link/4ikMJhb

• Firstwork, an HR platform for shift and frontline workers, raised $5m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Gradient led, and was joined by YC, Soma Capital, 468 Capital, and Houghton Street Venture. axios.link/4h25bdt

• Lockchain.ai, an Athens, Ga., blockchain risk management platform, raised $5m in Series A funding. White Star Capital led, and was joined by Lerer Hippeau, Arrington Capital, and Sonic Boom Ventures. axios.link/43dtMIN

🚑 SimCare, a Chicago-based clinical training startup, raised $2m in seed funding co-led by YC and Drive Capital. simcare.ai

• Jurimesh, a Belgian legal due diligence startup, raised €1.6m led by Syndicate One. jurimesh.com

• Apax Partners agreed to buy a stake in accounting firm CohnReznick. axios.link/3D8qnQW

• Ardian agreed to acquire an additional 10% stake in Heathrow Airport, after having purchased a 22.6% position late last year. axios.link/3XoiWvR

⚡ Argentum invested in JessCo, a San Angelo, Texas-based provider of vapor recovery and emissions control solutions to the oil & gas industry. jesscosolutions.com

• Argonaut Private Equity acquired Pryer Aerospace, a Tulsa, Okla., maker of complex aerospace components. pryer.aero

• Boyne Capital invested in Blue Monkey Beverages, a maker of sparkling juices and other plant-based beverages. axios.link/3QD7Jnk

🚑 CHG Healthcare, a Utah-based medical staffing agency backed by Ares and Leonard Green, acquired CareerMD, an New York-based physician career events company. chghealthcare.com

🚑 Avista Healthcare Partners-backed Cosette Pharma, a South Plainfield, N.J., portfolio company of Avista Healthcare Partners, acquired Mayne Pharma (ASX: MYX), an Australian generic drugmaker. cosettepharma.com

• DuraServ, a portfolio company of Leonard Green, acquired AE Door & Window, a Cincinnati-based provider of residential garage door, entry door, and window installation. duraservcorp.com

• HGGC acquired a majority stake in Centralis, an alternative asset and corporate services provider. centralisgroup.com

• IDHL, a U.K. digital marketing agency backed by Bridgepoint, acquired MTM Agency, focused on influencer marketing. axios.link/4kgUSVC

• Kharis Capital invested in KoRo, a German maker of plant-based snacks. axios.link/4i0vnGv

🚑 Sycamore Partners is preparing a three-part breakup of Walgreens (Nasdaq: WBA) if it succeeds in buying the pharmacy and retail giant, per the FT. axios.link/4icWRs6

• Bolt, an Estonian ride-hailing company, hired PJT Partners to advise on a potential IPO, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4kjEtj5

🚑 Kestra Medical Technologies, a maker of wearable cardioverter defibrillators, set IPO terms to 10m shares at $14-$16. It would have a $716m fully diluted value, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (KTMS). The company has raised $246m from firms like Bain Capital, Endeavour Vision, Andera Partners, Ally Bridge Group, Longitude Capital, Omega Funds, T. Rowe Price, Eventide Asset Management, and Gilmartin Capital. axios.link/4h1l0ky

• Bain Capital is weighing a sale of Rocket Software, a Waltham, Mass.-based automation software provider that could fetch up to $10b, per Reuters. axios.link/3XlVa3z

• Blackstone is in advanced talks to sell three China logistics projects for around $372m to Ping An Insurance, per Bloomberg. axios.link/41gXfz1

• The Agnelli family sold a €3b stake in Ferrari (Milan: RACE) in order to support what it called a "sizable new acquisition," although it remains the luxury automaker's largest shareholder. axios.link/4khY43e

• Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield have discussed buying back their namesake ice cream brand, Ben & Jerry's, from Unilever, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4hV03ZO

• IBM (NYSE: IBM) completed its $6.4b cash takeover of HashiCorp, an SF-based multi-cloud automation software provider. axios.link/3QDjdYg

• Rhombus, a Sacramento, Calif., physical security startup, acquired Dashdive, a provider of SaaS for monitoring multi-tenant cloud service costs. Rhombus has raised over $100m in VC funding. rhombus.com

• Komi Kyu left Bain Capital to join HongShan Capital as a Tokyo-based managing director, per Reuters. axios.link/41xoczD

• Patrick McHenry, former chair of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, joined a16z as a senior advisor for tech policy. axios.link/4ihueKk

🌎 Quilvest Capital Partners promoted Daniel Toledano to global head of sustainability. axios.link/4igyD0i

• Wern-Yuen Tan, Pepsi's former Asia-Pacific CEO, is joining Hillhouse Investment to lead global consumer investing. axios.link/3Xgpkp1

• Rodney Zemmel, former head of McKinsey & Co.'s digital practice, joined Blackstone as global head of portfolio operations. axios.link/4bltmSX

Bond yields, not stocks, are President Trump's new yardstick for economic success, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.